Course Preview for the 2024 John Deere Classic

The John Deere Classic is a pillar of the PGA TOUR summer schedule. The event dates back to 1971 and officially became the John Deere Classic back in 1999 and has been played at TPC Deere Run – a course that is now managed by the PGA TOUR – ever since.

This year’s version of the Deere is being played two weeks before the Open Championship, but for some players, it will either be their final tune-up before the last major; OR their last chance to qualify (for the Open).

The top two players in the final standings for the event, who have not already qualified for the Open, will gain entry. That makes this somewhat of a special event for much of the field and a great opportunity for many struggling players to turn their seasons around.

At the top of the qualifying positions at stake, the field will also have a few bigger names. World Number 8 Patrick Cantlay is teeing things up at Deere Run for the first time in his career and will be joined by top-50 players Sungjae Im, Jason Day, and Jordan Spieth.

Spieth won this event back in 2013 and 2015 but he’s skipped it for most of the past decade, choosing instead to focus on preparation for the Open. All in all, there will be a lot of names at the top of this field who have struggled for much of 2024, making this field somewhat wide open with such weak market leaders.

While it’s certainly possible one of the bigger names takes a dramatic step forward – and wins their first tournament of the season – this event has become synonymous with big longshot winners. Last year’s winner, Sepp Straka, who went off around +5500 before last season's event, continued that trend and we have also seen the likes of Lucas Glover (2021), Michael Kim (2018), and Dylan Frittelli (2019) all take down this event at some point over the past six years at odds of +6000 or bigger.

I’ll go over the course preview and how to approach this week for betting today (along with any trends worth noting) and will also highlight one golfer I like targeting for this week. Then, on Wednesday, I’ll go through my full betting card with outrights, placements, and whatever else sticks out for the week. 

Let’s dive in and get our John Deere Classic week started!

John Deere Classic 2024 Course Preview

• TPC Deere Run – Silvis, IL
• Par: 71, 7,289 yards
• Greens: Bentgrass
• Fairways: Bentgrass
• Rough: Bluegrass/fescue
• Design: D.A. Weibring
• Defending Champion: Sepp Straka

TPC Deere Run is the quintessential “accuracy” course where power takes a proverbial backseat. The venue plays short for a PGA TOUR venue at just over 7,200 yards (par 71) and features tree-lined fairways that can be somewhat difficult to hit. In 2022, the driving accuracy numbers dipped down to 62%, the lowest mark at this event since 2000. That’s potentially the setup makers attempting to toughen this course up a bit and something to keep note of for this week.

Off-the-tee stats haven’t been overly predictive at Deere Run BUT, the last two winners have gained over 2.8 strokes off the tee. Neither Straka nor JT Poston can be classified as “power players”, so most of those strokes were gained by accuracy and hitting fairways at a high rate.

It’s also important to note that even with toughened fairways it doesn’t necessarily mean that Deere Run will play much tougher than it has in the past. The last two winners have both reached 21-under par for the week and that’s still a better score than we have seen win this event in two of the past five seasons.

Jul 9, 2023; Silvis, Illinois, USA; Sepp Straka holds the champions trophy after winning the John Deere Classic golf tournament. Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-USA TODAY Sports

Overall, Deere Run has produced the most birdies on the PGA, of any course, since 2000, so if the player you’re targeting isn’t A. giving himself an above-average number of birdie/eagle chances every round or B. Just isn’t converting at a high rate, he’s not likely to have a ton of success around this Shotmakers venue.

In terms of style, players with great approach games who are accurate from 175 yards and in, are the types who have thrived the most consistently at Deere Run. This course offers at least seven par 4s that will play well under 450 yards this week, but also doesn’t carry the typical drivable par 4s that tend to favor better off-the-tee players. That means the advantage is squarely with the short to mid-iron specialists who can also thrive on the two par 3s that come in well under 200 yards.

The other category winners tend to thrive at is putting, which should come as no shock given the lower scoring. The bentgrass greens at Deere Run are well known for being some of the purest on the PGA TOUR and because of that, we see an inordinate amount of mid-range putts holed here every season. In 2022 players holed 18% of their putts from 15 to 25 feet, which was the fifth-highest make percentage from that range that season. 

So how should we approach Detroit Golf Club for betting?

In terms of recent form and course history, both have been fairly predictive. After Straka’s win last week, 11 of the past 14 winners at Deere Run had played on the course at least once in a prior season – and made the cut at Deer Run in at least one of those starts.

Additionally, six of the past seven winners had gained over 4.0 strokes on approach in at least one of their four previous lead-up starts. Again, this showcases how important solid approach form is for being able to get to a low number like 19 or 20 under par, which is required to win this event.

Finally, winners here have tended to play a busy summer schedule. After Straka’s win last season, the last seven winners of the John Deere Classic had all played in the PGA event the week before that win.

Ideally, from a stat perspective, we’d want our golfer to have the following: 

• Good to elite driving accuracy stats and recent form in fairways gained
• Elite putting, 10 to 25 yards
• Elite approach game, 175 yards, and in
• Some course history, although I would not weigh minimal course history as a huge negative; especially if the player ranked out as a good fit from a style perspective

Combining and weighing most of these stats into a model that targeted the last 24 rounds this week (heavier on approach and driving accuracy) gave me the following players as my top 10:

• Sepp Straka
• Kelly Kraft
• Aaron Rai
• Russell Knox
• Keith Mitchell
• Joel Dahmen
• Sungjae Im
• Maverick McNealy
• Lucas Glover
• Adam Svensson

With course history dating back to 2000, the Deere does have a lot of “course horses” that are worth noting for betting. As of writing, here are the top 10 in total strokes gained at TPC Deere Run over the past six seasons.

• Lucas Glover 
• Adam Schenk 
• Ryan Moore 
• Seamus Power 
• Denny McCarthy 
• Alex Smalley 
• Mark Hubbard 
• Adam Svensson 
• Zach Johnson 
• J.T. Poston

As we can see from the above list, most of these names are known for being good to great short-iron players who also bring a ton of week-to-week upside with their putter. Power this week takes a back seat to accuracy and generally upside with short irons and putting.

Finally, since we have seen players excel somewhat off the tee at Deere Run, specifically from an accuracy standpoint, here are the top 10 in fairways gained over the last 50 rounds of play.

• Aaron Rai
• Sepp Straka
• Ryan Moore
• Lucas Glover
• Brendon Todd
• Zac Blair
• Ben Kohles
• Carson Young
• Adam Long
• Brice Garnett

Betting Facts and Stats for the 2024 John Deere Classic

Below are the previous odds (week of) of the past five John Deere Classic winners. A couple of notes about these odds below:

• Straka came in with mostly middling form but did make the cut in Detroit the week prior (T64).
• The same could very much be said about Lucas Glover, who lost strokes on approach in each of his previous three starts, but also played the week prior in Detroit and finished T41.
• J.T. Poston was the only one of the previous three winners to have shown any form, finishing T2 at the Travelers (played the week prior to the Deere) in 2022. He also gained over 8.2 strokes on approach that week).

Below are the previous 5 winners of the John Deere Classic and their pre-event odds from the beginning of the week of the event. 

Odds courtesy of SportsOddsHistory

Early Bet for 2024 John Deere Classic

Bud Cauley Outright (+17000; FanDuel)

• Top 20 (+400; bet365)

I’m going with a relative longshot for the early week spotlight this week in Bud Cauley, which is somewhat fitting for this event. The 34-year-old has had an up-and down-season on the PGA, after enduring a multi-year recovery from injuries and complications related to a severe car accident back in 2018. He flashed some form early on in the season, finishing T21 at the Cognizant Classic, but has endured three straight missed cuts, before his T52 finish in Detroit last week. 

While the results haven’t been as good as he would have liked I’m sure, it’s pretty clear Cauley can still play. He ranks a surprising 19th in the recent form model this week and is 8th in strokes gained approach stats over the last 24 rounds. While he did have a poor week with his irons in Detroit it’s not necessarily something I’m overly worried about given how well he’s struck his approaches this season, particularly from 175 yards and in.

Additionally, Cauley’s week in Detroit is somewhat noteworthy as it not only marked his first made cut in four starts but it also saw him gain over 2.5 strokes around the green and putting – the two areas that have been holding him back this season. 

After knocking the rust off in Detroit (after a two-week layoff) he’ll now come to a course in TPC Deer Run where he’s shown some great upside in the past, having finished Top 20 in each of his last three appearances (2016; 2017; 2019). An accurate driver who can get super hot with his short irons, Cauley fits the profile of this course well and should be ready to attack this shorter venue after dialing in his short game and putter.

He makes plenty of sense to me as a long shot to target for outrights, but also someone you could look to ladder bet through the top 20 and top 10 markets.