In today's Betting Life Newsletter:
New week, same work ethic. Another exhilarating pigskin Sunday come and gone in a flash. Lots going on yesterday. The Bucs won their third straight to jump the Falcons for the NFC South’s divisional lead. Mike Tomlin’s Steelers got back to basics with a decisive win over the Browns despite missing George Pickens. And, of course, the Chiefs somehow managed to do it again. Can we all agree giving the ball to Patrick Mahomes down one with four minutes to go equates to admitting defeat?
And, oh yeah, the fireworks we expected out in Hollywood between the Bills and Rams didn’t disappoint—each team outscored the Jaguars/Titans and Giants/Saints games combined. Josh Allen put on the Superman cape, again.
Monday NFL Blitz Preview, Bengals (4-8) at Cowboys (5-7): In another universe not too different from our own, the Bengals and Cowboys prepare to face off tonight with playoff byes on the line in a potential Super Bowl preview. Well, not quite … just a bit outside. What we may get treated to—other than two wildly disappointing seasonal runouts—is the potential for the very best brand of bad football: The circus game, where atrocious defenses and competent offenses collide.
Calling the Bengals merely competent absolutely sells that unit short—but I’ll make up for it now. Is this Cincinnati offense the best in history to miss the playoffs? Joe Burrow currently holds down the QB Triple Crown (302 completions, 3,337 yards, and 30 TDs) while his batterymate Ja’Marr Chase can remarkably say the same for wideouts, leading the position in catches (79), yards (1,142), and TD (13). Oh, and they have Tee Higgins, with the sixth-most receiving yards per game in the league. On any given down, drive, or quarter, CIN can score from anywhere.
Next on the menu sits a Dallas squad that just inexplicably gave up 20 points to the New York Football Giants. Yikes. They’ll likely return DB Trevon Diggs, not that he’ll fix the systemic rot in the Cowboys D—only the Panthers have surrendered more points per game this year. Then you get a slew of critical bottom-5 metrics like yards/play (5.8), which not only extends drives but tires out the players as well. Mike McCarthy’s relying on the few playmakers remaining on the D-line like Micah Parsons and DeMarvion Overshown to collapse opposing O-lines, which has worked to some degree. DAL boasts the NFL’s third-highest QB pressure rate but has failed to seal the deal, converting very few into sacks. Sending extra defenders creates vulnerabilities in the second level they cannot afford, resulting in the Boys’ bottom-5 explosive play rate allowed.
Yet none of this even mentions Lou Anarumo’s D, the Alpine Lace of the NFL. If you thought things started out poorly, the wheels have firmly flown off since as we rocket toward the cliff. Let’s call the overall state of things the last month … cartoonish. Fitting because one of the alternate broadcasts tonight is Simpsons-themed.
I handle enough stats to know when to double check and the Bengals earned the distinction, allowing a ridiculous 448.0 yards/game on 7.2 yards/play and a league-worst -0.19 EPA/play! Woof. Or Meow. Whatever, they stink.
Happy Monday to all of you from everyone here at the Betting Life newsletter! Don’t be shy, contact me anytime on X @JohnLaghezza with questions, comments, or feedback. I love hearing back from you! We’re here to help!
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- The New York Prop Exchange: Chase Is On The Case
- No Cap: It’s Over, Johnny
- Sharp Hunter: The Sharps Are OVER It
AROUND THE WATERCOOLER
The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:
🏈 Claudia and Thor offer the rapid reaction to the College Football Playoff Bracket. Who’s winning the first round?
👀 The Week 14 Instant NFL Recap with Ian and Dwain runs through Josh Allen’s freakish greatness and more.
🚀 Will Bart Simpson catch a pass from Joe Burrow? Probably not, but here are the Monday Night Football Player Props.
🤔 Will Chase Brown go crazy on the Cowboys? LaMarca has the inside scoop on Cowboys-Bengals Monday Night Football game.
🔮 Time to jump on the Steelers against the Eagles? LaMarca zeroes in on three Early Week 15 Betting Odds.
The New York Prop Exchange🏈🏛️—Chase Is On The Case
THE BET: Chase Brown Over 70.5 Rushing Yards (-115) FanDuel
Some of these matchup stats couldn’t be juicier—we’re talking totally lopsided. Famous last words, I know.
Let’s start with our man Chase Brown, Cincy’s fifth-round sophomore standout. Since taking over the featured RB role for CIN, no one’s come within five full ticks of his +87% team rush share. With those repetitions came efficiency. You can see this by watching the TV but the stats bear out the same—his YPC chart looks like it’s trailing bitcoin (image below).
Does Dallas bring the NFL’s worst run-stopping unit to the table? If not, it’s pretty close. You decide:
- -0.07 EPA/Rush: Last
- 57.0% Defensive Rush Success: 28th
- 147.6 Rush Yards Per Game: 31st
- 4.9 Yards Per Rush: T-30th
- 2.05 Yards Before Contact Per Rush: Last
- 21 Rush TD: Last
Brown posted at least 70 rushing yards in three of his four starts, the one miss against the pass funnel Ravens. Cincy’s favored by just shy of a TD which implies competitive play throughoutand a pathway to success via volume in a worst case of poor efficiency.
No Cap🏈🧢—It’s Over, Johnny
THE BETs: CIN/DAL O49.5 (-110) DraftKings
Before you place this bet, ask yourself, do I feel lucky? Well … do you? Actually the one question we need to answer is whether or not Dallas continues looking like a semi-functional offense with the surprising Cooper Rush under center. If so, we may repeat yesterday’s Bills/Rams game that blew through 50 points like it was the season finale of my favorite show. Remember, Dallas keeps but one arrow in the defensive quiver. Pressure.
Hate to break it to Micah Parsons and Co. but they don’t call him Joe Cool for nothing. Among 38 QBs with 150+ Attempts, Joe Burrow’s stats under pressure may be better than most quarterbacks in a clean pocket.
- 1,025 Passing Yards: 1st
- +0.35 EPA Per Attempt: 2nd
- 108.4 Passer Rating: 3rd
- 8.0 Yards Per Attempt: 3rd
- 57.0% Completion Rate: 3rd
- 0.8% INT:Attempt: 8th
- 60.2% To The Sticks: 5th
- 11 TD: 2nd
So it’s firmly established our survey says the Bengals move up and down the field at will in whatever manner they choose. Now it’s a matter of the Cowboys toeing the line of viability. You can’t call Dallas good with Rush calling signals, that much is true. However, I do think America’s Team deserves a modicum of credit for averaging 24 points on 5.0 yards/play with a backup QB. You need not look back any further than the outright foundational collapses of the Saints and Dolphins this season without their usual starter.
Cincinnati’s managed to make everyone they encounter look like the Greatest Show on Turf. What started out rough for CIN truly turned south with the loss of every-down LB Logan Wilson. The results can be described as nothing short of disastrous the last month for Cincy’s D:
- 37.7 Points Per Game: Last
- 448.0 Yards Allowed Per Game: 31st
- 7.2 Yards Allowed Per Play: Last
- -0.19 EPA/Play: Last
- 37.8 Average Drive Distance: 28th
- -0.32 EPA/Dropback: Last
- 120.5 Opposer Passer Rating: Last
- 326.7 Passing Yards Per Game: Last
- 14.1 Yards Per Reception: Last
- 7.2 Yards After Catch Per Reception: T-Last
- 19 +20-Yard Completions: T-Last
- 9 Passing Touchdowns: 31st
- 27.7% Pressure Rate: 29th
Whew. My goodness, the Bengals couldn’t stop a snowball in a sauna. Dallas should be playing from behind and chucking throughout. If DAL can push the pace at all, I think we have a chance of finishing closer to 60 than 50.
Sharps See a Passing Fancy for Bengals-Cowboys on MNF
Source: Sharp Hunter
And then there was one.
We close out the NFL’s Week 14 in Dallas where the Cowboys host the Bengals. Joe Burrow and Cincinnati are 5.5-point favorites in a game with a consensus 49.5-point total.
At Sharp Hunter, we track bets from thousands of sharp bettors every day of the week. Not just in the NFL but also in the NBA, CBB, and CFB.
As for Monday Night, we’re showing a strong Three-Bag Sharp Score (💰💰💰) on the OVER 49.5.
I HATE betting overs … but I’m actually in line with the sharps here. I’m betting the over with them.
Why?
Well first, we have two fast offenses that LOVE passing the ball. Using FTN’s pace stats, Monday’s matchup features two teams in the Top 5 in pass rate in neutral-pace situations: the Bengals are No. 1 and the Cowboys are No. 5. If the game is close, both teams are OK with throwing the football.
That’s good for the OVER on Monday night.
Defensively, both teams are ranked in the bottom 9 of DVOA-ranked defenses. Even with Cooper Rush in for Dak Prescott, we expect both teams to be able to score in prime time on Monday.
A trend in our favor? Sure! It’s a small sample size, but Monday Night Football has gone 12-4 to the OVER this season.
Two fast teams ✅
Two mediocre defenses ✅
Positive trends ✅
The sharps at Sharp Hunter are making a list and checking it twice—their play is OVER on Monday Night.
I don’t bet many OVERS but I see the play here. And I’m betting OVER, too.
