Welcome to the best bets article for the NFL Divisional Round.

Here we’ll highlight some of the best bets for the week from around the site. Some of these will be based on site projections and some we’ll just be tailing from the hive of minds inside the Fantasy Life bet tracker.

Others will simply be lines I deem worthy of attacking for reasons I’ll lay out below. 

I’ll be including a wide variety of bets (props, spreads, totals) but will try to list off a few favorites from each category even if they don’t get a write-up. 

If you want more, be sure to check out the Fantasy Life Bet Tracker afterward.

Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens

Best bet: Under 43.5 (-110, DraftKings)

  • Play to: 43.0 (-110, unless weather improves)

I bet this total in our FREE bet tracker at the beginning of the week, alongside our head of betting Matthew Freedman. It’s moved nearly three points since then (46.0 to 43.5), but I would still lean toward the under in this spot. 

Let’s start with the weather in Baltimore this Saturday: a high of 25 degrees F and a low of 16, plus winds in the 15-20 mph range. That’s not great. As noted in our Divisional Round Betting Life newsletter, outdoor unders have been money in the playoffs, and last week two of the three outdoor games went well under their totals (and the one that didn’t, Steelers-Bills, got moved into more favorable weather conditions late in the week). 

Then there are the trends. Houston is a solid 11-7 to unders on the year (5-3 hitting unders on the road), and their defense, which got healthy around Week 17, has allowed an average of 14 points per game over the last three weeks. 

As good as C.J. Stroud has been this year, his outdoor splits this year have been far worse (7.0 AY/A outdoors) than his indoor ones. While the forecast is worth watching, I’d still be inclined to play this under at its current number unless something drastically changes with the weather.

You can tail the under at DraftKings, where you can get $200 INSTANTLY in bonus bets when you sign up below and place your first bet of at least $5:

Prop: C.J. Stroud under 21.5 completions (-130, bet365)

The line on this prop has moved a bit as bettors have become aware of the impending weather that could affect this game. Even at its current price/number, I still think this is playable.

Our Fantasy Life projections have Stroud hovering in the 20.5 completion range, and that may even be generous if the 15-20 mph forecast for this game comes to fruition.

CJ Stroud

Jan 13, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) in a 2024 AFC wild card game against the Cleveland Browns at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports 

Stroud outdoors just hasn’t been as efficient this season either. In his last four outdoor games he’s completed just 61% of his passes, and that includes a game against the Jets where he completed just 43% of his 23 pass attempts (before leaving with injury). 

The Ravens have also been great at limiting opposing passers, allowing just a 60.5% pass completion rate to opposing QBs this season.

You can tail the Stroud prop at bet365, where you can get $365 in bonus bets when you sign up below and place your first bet of just $1!

Same Game Parlay: +1000 (DraftKings)

This is a fairly reasonable four-legger. We discussed the case for unders on Stroud and the game total above, but I do think the Ravens ultimately prevail in this game. If they do, and they run out the clock and preserve the under in the process, it likely means Gus Edwards (12 TDs in his last 12 starts) is a key factor. The Texans have a solid rush defense but did allow 3 rushing TDs to the Ravens' RB unit when these teams met in Week 1. 

As for Bateman, who knows what his role will be with Mark Andrews returning. The wind won’t help Bateman either, who is more of a downfield threat and has only caught more than three passes once in his last seven games. 

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Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers

Best bet: 49ers team total over 29.5 (-130, DraftKings)

Ultimately, I want to bet on the 49ers' offense in this spot, but want to do so without worrying about Jordan Love turning in another monster game and covering the +9.5 (or even winning outright). Taking the over on the 49ers team total provides me the best of both worlds. 

The Packers have gotten healthier on defense of late, but they’re still not a unit I’d trust to shut down an elite offense like the 49ers on the road. Green Bay has also played a soft schedule down the stretch but gave up 30 points to Carolina and 24 points to the Giants in two late-season road starts, before being gifted with a Jaren Hall start in Week 17 against Minnesota. Overall, Green Bay is still just 23rd in overall defensive EPA and 23rd in EPA per dropback. 

The 49ers are also a team that will expose any and all weaknesses. They’ve averaged 28.9 points per game this year but have scored 30 or more points nine times in 17 games, and that 17-game total includes Week 18 where they rested their starters. 

Given how well Love and the Packers are playing, looking for the 49ers to run up the score (either out of fear or necessity) is an angle I like playing in this Saturday night game.  

Prop: Jayden Reed over 41.5 receiving yards (-110, bet365)

I personally love this as a buy low spot on Jayden Reed. He’s coming off a slow game (3 targets, 0 catches), so naturally there will be a lull in his overall sentiment, and that’s already been reflected in his props where his yardage total is at its lowest point in multiple weeks. 

Despite the goose egg against Dallas, Reed has been a very consistent performer for the Packers down the stretch. The rookie averaged 84 yards over his last three games of the regular season, which included a 112-yard effort against the notoriously tough secondary of the Bears. The matchup this week also looks better for Reed. The 49ers' secondary isn’t as good at guarding against the slot as the Cowboys' is/was (Dallas allowed the third fewest PPR PPG to slot receivers this year), and names like Christian Kirk were able to come through with big weeks against this unit. 

I think there’s a chance the Packers rely on Reed’s after-the-catch ability, against a tough pass rush, a lot more this week. We could certainly also bet his alternate lines or TD props (see below) in this spot, but the over on his suppressed yardage prop is without a doubt the best starting point for any Reed action in this game. 

Same Game Parlay: +1400 (DraftKings)

I think we could get some video game stats in this matchup, so starting a parlay with an over on the game total and an anytime Christian McCaffrey TD feels like a solid base (with the CMac TD likely a formality). We could certainly take this a lot deeper and add in alternate lines for a lot of players, but the one scenario I really like targeting is the one I mentioned above–the Packers' passing offense relying more on Jayden Reed.

Reed’s ultimately gone over this 74.5 alternate line four times in his last nine starts and twice in his last three starts, so it’s not like we’re asking him to do something he’s never done before. Adding in the Reed TD prop makes sense as well considering we’re playing the game over and the 49ers have allowed the sixth-most TDs to opposing WRs this season.   

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions 

Best Bet: Teaser: Lions -0.5 / Chiefs +8.5 (-120, DraftKings)

  • Play to: Lions (-1.5 / Chiefs +7.5, -120)

We don’t have many games to choose from for teasers this week but there are two strong spots I really like combining. The Chiefs are in classic Wong teaser range at +2.5 right now since we can use the 6.0 points to take them through the key numbers of 3.0 and 7.0. I also just like the idea of getting +8.5 points with Patrick Mahomes in a playoff game (he’s 12-3 SU in the playoffs and has one loss of more than 6.0 points—the 2021 Super Bowl). 

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Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff (16) raises his arms as the Lions beat the L.A. Rams, 24-23 in the wild-card round of the NFC playoffs at Ford Field in Detroit on Sunday, January 14, 2023. Credit: Eric Seals / USA TODAY NETWORK

The Lions are a little more tricky. At -6.5 we’re still in a solid teaser range as the 6 points takes under 6.0, 4.0, and most importantly 3.0. The Buccaneers' offense is likely going to be able to move the ball in this game, but the Lions' offense should be able to do the same. Ultimately, when Jared Goff has been in the dome in Detroit, he’s someone you want to trust more often than not. 

Since 2020, Goff is 22-11 ATS when playing at home, and he’s also 25-9 when playing indoors over the last three seasons (via the Action Network). I do think the Buccaneers can make a game of this, but the Lions' pass rush, the Buccaneers' shaky O-line (Mayfield was sacked four times last week), and the overall efficiency of the Lions' offense likely allows Detroit to (at the very least) edge out a close win. 

Prop: Rachaad White over 21.5 receiving yards (-110, bet365)

We may see several of the Buccaneers' receivers have big days in this game. The Lions have a true funnel to the pass defense that has now allowed an average of 379.5 passing yards over their last four games. While Rachaad White only saw one target last week, a lot of his rushing usage from the Eagles game (18 carries, 72 yards; 1 rec, 5 yards) was game flow induced. 

Simply put, the Lions, who are at 7-2 SU at home and 7th in success rate on offense this season, aren’t likely to allow Tampa Bay to get a lead anywhere near the kind they had against the Eagles (if they allow them to lead at all). 

That almost certainly means more passing down work for White, who has gone over 21.5 yards in 13/19 games this season. 

Same Game Parlay: +1400 (DraftKings)

+1400 isn’t terrible for a four-way correlated prop. Outside of the Lions' O-line getting dominated and Detroit being unable to move the ball with regularity (highly unlikely), I think the only way for the Buccaneers to stay close in this game is via the pass. 

The good news is that they have the horses to dominate in that area. Mike Evans just missed out on a long TD last week against the Eagles, and something tells me the Buccaneers will be eager to attempt a few similar plays with Evans against this equally bad Lions secondary. If Evans does hit his props, Baker Mayfield (14th in yards per attempt) is likely flying over 300 yards passing again as well—a milestone he’s hit four times in 19 games and three times in his last five games. 

Throw in our Rachaad White over prop from above (which correlates strongly with Mayfield’s over) and we get some nice odds on a four-way sweat for Sunday. 

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Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills 

Best Bet: Chiefs moneyline (+130, Caesars)

  • Play to: +125

This feels like a very tough spot for the Bills all of a sudden. They are operating at a big rest disadvantage (-2 days) and are bringing a CVS receipt-style injury report into this game. 

LB Terrel Bernard and CBs TAron Johnson (concussion) and Christian Benford (knee) all exited the Steelers game early, with Bernard getting carted off. The Bills were also without cornerback Rasul Douglas, WR Gabriel Davis, and safety Taylor Rapp in that game. Of this group of players, only Douglas got in a limited practice on Wednesday. 

The Chiefs' defense (6th in EPA this year) has been a driving force of their team, but last week their offense managed over 350 total yards in frigid conditions. Given Mahomes’s record in playoff games (12-3 SU) and his past playoff record against Buffalo (2-0), taking the +130 odds on KC in this spot (now that the spread is under 3.0) looks warranted.

You can tail the Chiefs ML at Caesars, where you can get your first bet of up to $1,000 on the house when you sign up below for a new account:

Prop: Clyde Edwards-Helaire over 4.5 receiving yards 

I would love to stay away from betting the over on a backup running back, who allowed a 7th-round draft pick to steal his job last year, but the total looks far too low in this spot not to bet it.

Jerick McKinnon remains on IR and, last week, Edwards-Helaire was the only non-Isiah Pacheco running back to see the field for the Chiefs. His 30% snap share only resulted in one target (1 rec, 5 yards), but even on that low usage, he STILL would have hit for the over on this total. 

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Dec 25, 2023; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire (25) runs the ball against the Las Vegas Raiders during the game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

This week, with the Chiefs taking on Buffalo on the road as underdogs, there is also more potential for Edwards-Helaire to see expanded passing usage—and it’s worth noting that he’s seen multiple snaps in the Chiefs' two-minute offense in back-to-back games. 

For all his faults, Edwards-Helaire is still a pretty decent receiver too. He’s converted 20 of his 23 targets into catches this year and has averaged 8.6 yards per reception for his career. With the Bills potentially without their best LB Terrel Bernard (questionable) there does appear to be some good value in taking the overs on these low totals for Edwards-Helaire in this spot. 

Same Game Parlay: +2500 (DraftKings)

Uncorrelated bets are a good way to get access to some bigger odds on parlays with fewer legs. In this case, we’re getting +2500 on a four-leg ticket that features the under on 45.5 total points alongside two TD props and a Chiefs money line bet. 

Obviously we don’t want a ton of scoring if we’re playing the under, but these teams are still efficient enough that both will likely get to at least 17 points (their game in Week 14 ended in a 20-17 Buffalo win). Kelce looked great last week off a week of rest, taking a 31% team target share (his highest since Week 7) and faces a Bills team who could be without a starting safety and linebacker. 

We all know Allen, who is a monster truck as a runner and has seen his usage as a rusher rise since Buffalo changed OCs. He’s now scored nine rushing TDs in his last seven games. A close KC win, with both teams' stars featuring as scorers, AND this game staying in the 23-20 range, isn’t hard to imagine playing out Sunday night. 

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