In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by FantasyLife+
Having just spent months in the lab digging through projections, game tape, and spreadsheets, I still need to tell myself the same thing every year without fail—do NOT abandon player or team takes at the first sign of preseason action.
I don’t know if it’s the siren sound of the games on TV or just me desperately trying to fill a football-shaped hole in my heart, the song is always the same. Either my players “disappoint” or some UDFA rages out of nowhere, instantly winning over the infallible Twitterverse, creating a massive ripple effect. Take a deep breath and repeat after me … avoid overreacting to noise in either direction.
So this year, I’m reminding myself once more of the central point in play here. NFL coaches think they’re U.S. Army Generals protecting state secrets. They do not want to divulge any information that could be used against them in the future. Just enjoy the games, and outside of snap counts for ancillary players, do not pay attention to NFL preseason games.
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What else is in today’s newsletter?
- Look Into My Crystal Ball
- The New York Prop Exchange
Look Into My Crystal Ball 🔮—Sit Down And Pour Yourself A Kupp
For my next trick, I’m heading off the beaten projected path to back Cooper Kupp, my favorite wideout since Megatron.
Unless someone out there has been able to accurately project injuries while I wasn’t paying attention, this line makes no sense. The on-field mind meld between Matthew Stafford and Kupp is generational at worst, and historically great at best. We’re not too far removed from one of the greatest WR seasons ever and if you know anything about Kupp, he’s working relentlessly to return.
Kupp’s always been a ball hog, earning nearly nine targets per game for an entire career—but it’s the Stafford battery that elevates him, truly a thing of beauty. When operating with Stafford, Kupp’s target number shoots into the double digits, earning an opportunity on nearly 30% of all routes run. I may not be the best at math, but needing to eclipse 78 catches averaging 7.6 per game could get us to the over right around Halloween.
Even if you want to reasonably bake in some time missed due to injuries, Kupp would still have to miss a full month to approach needing his career average of 6.2 reception per game (below)—and all this with early question marks surrounding Puka Nacua’s true Week 1 status.
Needs 4.58 Rec/Game in 17 Games
Needs 4.88 Rec/Game in 16 Games
Needs 5.20 Rec/Game in 15 Games
Needs 5.57 Rec/Game in 14 Games
Needs 6.00 Rec/Game in 13 Games
THE BET: Cooper Kupp Over 77.5 Receptions (-112)
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The New York Prop Exchange ⚾️🏛️
Our “less is more” approach to MLB props is working so if it isn’t broke, I ain’t fixing it.
Tonight, we’ll try to make it four straight on the best coast in Hollywood, home of the Trolley Dodgers—though sad to say it isn’t to back the boys in blue. Walker Buehler’s on the bump for Los Angeles and there’s no denying how rough a stretch it’s been of late.
Right elbow injuries forced a second Tommy John surgery, derailing a very promising career for Buehler. Upon returning, it’s particularly manifested in severe fastball degradation. His four-seamer is down more than 3 mph of velocity, 200 rpm of spin, and several inches of shape on both the X and Y axes.
Lefties, in particular, have feasted off Buehler, batting .340 on the season, highlighted by a cartoonish .840 xSLG against the four-seamer. Woof. Through just over 40 innings this year, he’s sporting a pretty dismal 5.56 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, and .900 OPS surface combo without a single encouraging underpinning peripheral. Let’s get him, gang.
The Dodgers host the Mariners, who have undoubtedly struggled at the dish, maybe with the exception of Jorge Polanco. The 31-year-old veteran has generally been very productive throughout his career when healthy, especially against righties—so let’s strike while the iron is hot.
Polanco has been an absolute menace vs. RHP through 66 second-half PAs: .268 BA, .607 SLG, 48% Hard Hit, 22% Barrel, .446 xwOBA, and 5 HR. Whoa. He’s now worked his way into the top third of the lineup (extra ABs matter!) and has the added benefit of playing on the road, guaranteeing nine batting frames for the M’s.
THE BET: Jorge Polanco Over 1.5 Total Bases (+160)
AROUND THE WATERCOOLER
The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:
👀 The College Football season is (basically) here. Six pages of futures bets to lock in.
🤔 Is he washed? Freedman dives into the 2024 outlook for 34-year-old Travis Kelce and highlights the best betting angles to take.
📊 The Preseason Week 2 Utilization Report is live. 10 takeaways you need to know.
🚨 ICYMI: An early bet to lock in for the 2024 BMW Championship.
😱 The Backyard Sports franchise is officially relaunching. That first Pablo Sanchez at-bat is going to hit harder than Alex Pereira.
