In today's Betting Life Newsletter:
John Laghezza has handled most of the newsletter responsibilities here lately, and he’s been doing a phenomenal job. Seriously, if you missed any of his series of MLB previews, make sure to check those out.
But today, I’m in charge.
And when I’m in charge, we talk about football.
In all seriousness, it’s a great time of the year for sports that don’t involve a pigskin. We’ve reached the Final Four of the NCAA Tournament. The Masters is just a week away. The NBA playoffs are right around the corner, while the MLB action is just heating up.
But it’s also a great time for the NFL.
The NFL Draft is less than a month away, and the rumor mill is still firing on all cylinders. Specifically, what is going to happen with Shedeur Sanders? At this point, it seems like anything from going second overall to falling outside the top 20 is within his range of outcomes.
The first batch of NFL Win Totals also just dropped, so it’s a great time to dive into the market. Which teams stand out as good early buys?
Let’s dive right in.
What’s going on around the NFL and more with our merry band of sports nerds!
🛡The big boys need love, too. Thor Nystrom breaks down his top guards and centers for the 2025 NFL Draft.
💸 Need more NFL Draft bets? Of course you do! Freedman has you covered.
📈 Dwain McFarland’s 2025 NFL Draft Super Model is live. He and Ian Hartitz break down the upcoming class of wide receivers.
️⛳️ A tradition unlike any other. Looks like I’ll be planted on the couch for nine hours on Masters Saturday and Sunday.
💤 Could there be another stud rookie like Sam LaPorta or Brock Bowers in 2025? Kendall Valenzuela breaks down three candidates.
🏀 ICYMI: Nikola Jokic had a performance for the ages on Tuesday. He may not win MVP, but there’s no doubt about who’s the best player in the league.
🤔🤔 What to Do With Shedeur Sanders? 🤔🤔
The draft is less than a month away, and at this point, it seems like a pretty sure bet that Cam Ward is going to go No. 1 to the Titans. The Browns are sitting at No. 2, and they can go in three different directions:
1. Draft Shedeur Sanders
Is Sanders an elite QB prospect? I’m not sure. Thor Nystrom has him ranked as his No. 1 quarterback in this class, and Sanders had plenty of production while playing at Colorado. The Browns are in dire need of a quarterback, so rolling the dice on Sanders is definitely a defensible decision.
2. Draft the “Best Player on their Board”
Most people feel this draft has two “generational” type prospects: CB/WR Travis Hunter and EDGE Abdul Carter. If the Titans select Ward at No. 1, it gives the Browns the opportunity to add whoever they believe is the best player in the draft. They could pair Carter with Myles Garrett, giving them one of the most intimidating pass-rush duos in football, or they could sure up their secondary and receiver corps with Hunter.
3. Trade Down
This seems like the most unlikely option of the trio. Even if the Browns wanted to go this route, they’d need to find a willing dance partner. They also probably wouldn’t want to trade down too far, which leaves them with a small group of teams to consider. Does a team like the Giants want to move up one spot to ensure they get the player they desire? It’s possible, but it seems much more likely that they just stay put and take whichever of Hunter or Carter falls into their lap.
Ultimately, all this uncertainty with what the Browns will do at No. 2 has created some uncertainty in the betting market. Carter is down to -230 on BetMGM, making him the presumptive favorite, while Hunter is available at +175. That’s caused Sanders to slide all the way to +650, and he’s as low as +700 on FanDuel.
My big question is: why?
The Browns simply cannot go into the season with Deshaun Watson and Kenny Pickett as their top two quarterbacks. Maybe they can look to add a QB with their second pick—especially if they’re willing to trade into the back half of the first round—but the Browns absolutely have to add another QB to their roster.
Part of the reason the odds on Sanders have slid is because of the growing rumors involving Kirk Cousins to the Browns.
Again, I ask: Why?
Why in the world would the Browns want to pair Cousins with Watson? The Browns are already slated to spend $37M towards the cap on Watson next season; do they really want to add Cousins’ $40M on top?
Adding a cheap passer makes way more sense. The team is probably not contending in 2025, regardless of who is under center. Why not swing for the fences with the young guy?
I’m taking a flyer on Sanders all day at +650 or +700. Quarterbacks tend to go earlier than expected on draft night, and it wouldn’t shock me if all the Cousins’ noise is just smoke to get the Giants to trade up to No. 2. If the Giants are in love with either Hunter or Carter, maybe Cleveland believes they can swindle them into giving up an asset to move up a spot. In that case, the Browns could take Sanders at three, save themselves a smidge of money, and pick up an extra draft pick or two.
I still believe the most likely scenario is the Browns stick at No. 2 and add Sanders as their QB of their future. Maybe the Browns won’t behave rationally – they certainly have a track record against it – but teams with QB situations like the Browns just don’t pass on quarterbacks in the draft.
WHERE IS SANDERS IN FREEDMAN’S LATEST MOCK DRAFT?
👀 Early Look: 2025 NFL Win Totals 👀
With free agency mostly in the books, NFL Win Totals are starting to pop up across the various sportsbooks. It’s an exciting time in the season, and it gives sharp bettors a chance to take advantage of the market before the rest of the public has a chance to adjust.
Case in point: the 2024-25 Philadelphia Eagles.
When the numbers for last season first came around, the Eagles were considered roughly a coin flip to win the NFC East. They were available as high as +1600 to win the Super Bowl. Their win total was a modest 10.5. All of those numbers increased drastically before the start of the season, and those who took advantage early were rewarded with some excellent value.
Who should we be targeting ahead of the 2025-26 season? A few teams jump off the page:
New Orleans Saints: Under 6.5 Wins (-110; BetMGM)
Can someone explain to me why the Saints are not being priced like one of the worst teams in football? No disrespect to our resident Saints’ fans, Cooterdoodle, but I understand why she has three Rashid Shaheed jerseys: it’s because there’s literally no one else on the roster to get excited about.
The Saints do play in one of the worst divisions in football, but that was also true last year. The team still only managed to win five games, and that still undersells how bad this squad was. After starting the year 2-0, their only wins over the final 15 games were against the Falcons, Browns, and Giants. Two of those wins were by exactly three points, and they had a point differential of -122 over that time frame.
The Saints remain in salary cap hell, so they couldn’t do much to upgrade their team this offseason. Their big splash was bringing in Chase Young, who graded out as the No. 52 EDGE defender per PFF last season. They also brought home Brandin Cooks, PFF’s No. 86 receiver. Hard to call either of those guys needle movers.
Instead, they’re going to simply run back the same formula that hasn’t worked for them the past two years. Derek Carr won some games with the Raiders, but he’s been a subpar starter for most of his NFL tenure. Is he really going to put together a bounce-back season at 34 years old?
This number feels at least one win too high for me, and it wouldn’t shock me if this closes at 5.5. I’m happy to grab this number, and I’ll also have some exposure for New Orleans to finish with the worst record in the league.
Detroit Lions: Over 10.5 (-110; BetMGM)
This is another number that makes very little sense to me. Are the Lions going to regress from last season? Probably. But they still won 15 games. That gives them plenty of room to regress and still hit the over on 10.5 wins.
Detroit finished last season with an expected record of 13-4. They were first in the league in point differential and third in yardage differential, despite playing in one of the toughest divisions in football.
They did lose both of their coordinators this offseason, but do we really think those guys are worth five wins? Maybe Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn will turn out to be excellent coaches in their own right, but until I see it, it’s hard for me to say they were the secret behind the Lions’ success. Dan Campbell has proven himself to be one of the best coaches in football, both in-game and as a motivator, so I have no problem backing him with new coordinators.
Also, remember that the Lions’ defense was absolutely destroyed by injuries last season. They went from one of the best defensive units in football at the start of the year to one of the worst by the end, and they’ll (hopefully) have a clean bill of health at the start of next season.
This team still has an elite offensive line, one of the best rushing attacks in football, and a competent veteran quarterback. If the defense reverts to its early 2024 form, this team could be even better than they were last year.
