Matt LaMarca looks forward with the Week 17 NFL Betting Odds.
One of the most important parts of being a successful sports bettor is getting the best number as often as possible. If you’re consistently getting better numbers than the closing number—also known as Closing-Line Value (CLV)—it’s an indicator that you’re on the right side. Of course, getting the best number doesn’t guarantee that you’re going to win, but being on the right side more often than not should add up over time.
So, what’s the easiest way to get the best number? Attacking the markets early. Once the sharps come in and help “shape” the market, it becomes much harder to find betting value. That’s why “chasing steam” is an easy way to lose money. If you’re consistently following the sharps and betting worse numbers than they originally got, you’re not really making the same bets.
With that in mind, let’s dive into Week 17 and look for some opportunities to find value.
Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers
- Pick: Chiefs -2.5
Current Line: -110; DraftKings - Bet To: -3.0 (-110)
If you’ve read any of my writing or listened to me on a podcast, you’re probably pretty surprised to see me backing the Chiefs as favorites. Fading them as favorites—and targeting the Steelers as underdogs—is one of my schticks, and it’s been extremely profitable this season.
However, it’s very possible that the Chiefs have become undervalued in the betting market. They’ve covered as favorites in back-to-back weeks, including a convincing victory over the Texans on Saturday. Patrick Mahomes’ ankle looked basically at 100%, so there’s no real concern there moving forward.
This is also a slightly different situation for the Chiefs. They’re favored by less than a field goal against the Steelers, and their biggest struggles have come as larger underdogs. They’re only 3-7-1 ATS this season when laying more than three points, but Mahomes is 8-4 ATS for his career as a favorite of 3 points or fewer. Three is the most important number in NFL betting, so it makes a massive difference.
The Steelers have an elite track record as underdogs under head coach Mike Tomlin, but they’ve failed to get the job done as a dog in back-to-back games. Their offense lacks any real dynamic threat without George Pickens, whose status remains up in the air after missing three straight games.
The Chiefs may not be winning pretty, but they’re still winning. That should be good enough to cover such a minimal spread. Any time I can back Mahomes and the Chiefs to simply win a football game, that’s something I’m going to strongly consider.
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Pick: Panthers +7.5
- Current Line: -110; DraftKings
- Bet To: +7.0 (-110)
When you get to the end of the season, there are two types of bad teams: teams that have completely given up and teams that are still fighting. The Panthers clearly fall into the latter category. They managed to pull off an overtime win over a Cardinals squad still fighting for a playoff spot in Week 16, and they’ve had a host of competitive results of late. Even though they entered this Sunday on a four-game losing streak, all four losses came by 6 points or fewer. That includes close losses to the Chiefs and Eagles—two of the best teams in football—and a 3-point overtime loss to the Buccaneers.
They’ll rematch the Buccaneers in Week 17, this time in Tampa Bay. The Bucs have also played well of late, but I’m not sure they’re good enough to warrant being 7.5-point favorites. Baker Mayfield has never been favored by more than a touchdown with the Buccaneers, and he’s just 3-5 ATS in that split for his career.
The Buccaneers also enter this contest with all the pressure squarely on their shoulders. They need to win to maintain their lead over the Falcons in the NFC South, and teams with “nothing to play for” tend to fare well toward the end of the season. The public tends to overvalue teams in must-win spots, particularly when those teams are home favorites.
Given how well the Panthers have played recently, I’m happy to grab anything better than a touchdown with the Panthers in Week 17.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Denver Broncos
- Pick: Bengals -3.0
- Current Line: -110; DraftKings
- Bet To: -3.0 (-118)
All of a sudden, this game has some potential playoff implications. The Broncos' loss to the Chargers in Week 16 puts them two games ahead of the Bengals in the standings with two games left to go. If the Bengals can win their head-to-head matchup, it puts the Broncos in a must-win scenario in Week 18. That game will come against the Chiefs, and it’s possible that Kansas City has already locked up the No. 1 seed at that point. Still, it would make things very nervy in Denver.
Absolutely no one wants to see the Bengals at the moment. Joe Burrow is playing as well as anyone in football, setting a new NFL record with at least 250 passing yards and 3 touchdowns in seven straight games. Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins remain one of the most intimidating receiver duos in football, and Chase Brown has given the team steady production out of the backfield.
The defense remains the biggest question mark for the Bengals, but they’ve held up a bit better in recent weeks. They held the Browns to just 6 points in Week 16, and they limited the Titans and Cowboys to 47 total points in the prior two outings. That’s not great, but with their offense, it’s good enough to give the team a chance to win.
Meanwhile, the Broncos have come back to reality of late. They were gifted a Week 15 win by the Colts, who handed them 31 points on less than 200 yards of total offense. They were gifted two pick-sixes from Jameis Winston three games ago, and they were outgained by the Raiders in the week before that. Ultimately, this team may have the record of a playoff contender, but they don’t necessarily have the results to back it up.
I have no doubts in my mind that the Bengals are the better team, so -3.0 at home feels a bit too low. This number is already up to -3.0 (-120) on FanDuel, so I’m locking it in while I can.
