One of the most important parts of being a successful sports bettor is getting the best number as often as possible. If you’re consistently getting better numbers than the closing number—also known as Closing-Line Value (CLV)—it’s an indicator that you’re on the right side. Of course, getting the best number doesn’t guarantee that you’re going to win, but being on the right side more often than not should add up over time.
So, what’s the easiest way to get the best number? Attacking the markets early. Once the sharps come in and help “shape” the market, it becomes much harder to find betting value. That’s why “chasing steam” is an easy way to lose money. If you’re consistently following the sharps and betting worse numbers than they originally got, you’re not really making the same bets.
With that in mind, let’s dive into Week 9 and look for some opportunities to find value.
Los Angeles Rams (+1.5) vs. Seattle Seahawks
- Current Line: -110; FanDuel
- Bet To: -1.5 (-110)
I was on the Seahawks in Week 8—I had them at +3.0 vs. the Bills in our NFL Bet Tracker—but they laid a massive egg. They managed just 3 points before garbage time, and Geno Smith struggled to get anything going without DK Metcalf.
Unfortunately, there’s no guarantee that Metcalf returns to the lineup in Week 9. He was unable to practice all week and ultimately ruled out on Friday, so this could end up being a multi-week injury.
On the other side, the Rams are as healthy as they’ve been all season. They got back Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua last week, the first time they’ve had both in the lineup since Week 1.
As a result, they had their best offensive showing of the season. They rattled off a season-high 30 points against a solid Vikings defense, while their 386 yards was their second-highest output of the year.
The Rams were a dynamic offense when everyone was healthy last year, ranking fourth in EPA per play from Week 10 on. The Seahawks’ defense hasn’t been great this season, so they should be able to keep the offense rolling.
This line is already at Rams -1.5 at certain locations, and I could see it moving in that direction overall. There isn’t a ton of difference between -1.5 and +1.5, but every single point matters. You could also choose to lock in the Rams at +108 on the moneyline, which could also provide some positive CLV.
Las Vegas Raiders (+8.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
- Current Line: -110; FanDuel
- Bet To: +7.5 (-110)
“You are what your record says you are.” That’s a quote from legendary head coach Bill Parcells, but for sports betting, it’s very rarely that simple.
Take the Bengals. Their 3-5 record says that they’re not a very good team. Yet, entering Week 8, they had the third-best odds to win the AFC. That suggests that despite the poor record, they still had the makings of a potential Super Bowl champion.
That said, at some point, you need to start to live up to your potential. The Bengals still have an MVP-caliber quarterback in Joe Burrow, and their offense has had no real issue scoring points.
That said, every point that their offense scores is worth very little because of their defense. They unquestionably have one of the worst defenses in football. They entered Week 8 at No. 24 in EPA per play defensively, and that number isn’t getting any better after surrendering 37 points and 397 scrimmage yards to the Eagles.
They will likely get Tee Higgins back in the lineup for Week 9, and they should be able to take care of business against a subpar Raiders squad. But is their defense good enough to cover an 8.5-point spread? I don’t see it.
The Raiders were in a similar situation last week against a superior Chiefs squad. They fell behind 27-13, but they were ultimately able to cover the spread with a late touchdown. It should shock no one if they can do the same vs. the Bengals.
There’s no real rush to lock this bet in early, but the Raiders are +7.5 at DraftKings. That makes me think it’s more likely that the line moves closer to seven than 10.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+9.5) at Kansas City Chiefs
- Current Line: -115; FanDuel
- Play To: +8.5 (-110)
Speaking of the Chiefs, they continue to win games ugly. They won but didn’t cover against the Raiders, and Patrick Mahomes had another game with an interception. He’s up to 9 interceptions for the year, which puts him on pace for his worst career season by a margin. Somehow, this team is sitting at 7-0 despite Mahomes throwing more interceptions than touchdowns.
Meanwhile, the Buccaneers proved that their offense is more than just Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Both receivers were sidelined vs. the Falcons, and both players will be out through at least Week 11 (Godwin will miss the rest of the year). Baker Mayfield still managed 330 yards and 3 touchdown passes without his top two options, and they racked up 432 yards of offense overall.
The big reason why they lost to the Falcons was a 3-0 differential in the turnover department. Mayfield has to be smarter with the football, but if he can clean that up a bit, this offense could still be competitive. Cade Otton suddenly looks like one of the best tight ends in football while they have a host of strong pass-catching options out of the backfield.
Ultimately, I’m going to continue to fade the Chiefs in what has ultimately been a pretty profitable spot. Mahomes is now 22-32-2 ATS as a favorite of greater than a field goal since the start of the 2020 season, and he’s 12-17-1 when favored by more than a touchdown.
With the way the Chiefs’ offense is playing at the moment, I’m not sure they’re going to score enough to routinely cover large spreads. At a minimum, the backdoor should be open for Mayfield late, just like it was for the Raiders in Week 8.
