The weekend of football may not be over, but Matt LaMarca is looking ahead at his favorite early Week 12 NFL odds and picks:

One of the most important parts of being a successful sports bettor is getting the best number as often as possible. If you’re consistently getting better numbers than the closing number—also known as Closing-Line Value (CLV)—it’s an indicator that you’re on the right side. Of course, getting the best number doesn’t guarantee that you’re going to win, but being on the right side more often than not should add up over time.

So, what’s the easiest way to get the best number? Attacking the markets early. Once the sharps come in and help “shape” the market, it becomes much harder to find betting value. That’s why “chasing steam” is an easy way to lose money. If you’re consistently following the sharps and betting worse numbers than they originally got, you’re not really making the same bets.

With that in mind, let’s dive into Week 12 and look for some opportunities to find value.

Early NFL Week 12 Betting Odds and Picks

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins Pick

  • Pick: Patriots +7.5
  • Current Line: -115; DraftKings
  • Bet To: +7.0 (-110)

Looking just at the final linbe score, these two teams performed roughly up to expectations in Week 11. The Patriots lost by six points as four-point home underdogs, while the Dolphins won by 15 as eight-point favorites.

That said, that doesn’t tell the full story. The Patriots more than held their own against the Rams, who had won three of four games since getting Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua back from injury. They racked up 382 yards of total offense, and if not for two turnovers, it could’ve been a completely different game.

On the other side, the Dolphins didn’t outplay the Raiders by as much as the final score indicates. The yardage battle was pretty even—the Dolphins had just 25 more yards than Las Vegas—but they were able to pull away late. Specifically, they scored 10 points in the final 3:19, which ultimately pushed the margin from five to 15.

Ultimately, I don’t think the Patriots are nearly as bad as we thought they would be coming into the year. Drake Maye has given them new life on offense, and he continues to improve on a weekly basis.

This spread was listed as Dolphins -7.5 when the lines were first released this offseason, and I don’t see why that would still be the case. The Patriots have gotten an upgrade as the year has progressed, while the Dolphins have gotten a bit of a downgrade.

Historically, taking big divisional underdogs has also been a decent investment. They’ve gone 272-233-10 ATS when getting more than a touchdown since 2005, and they’re a perfect 4-0 in that scenario so far this season.

I’m locking in the +7.5 on DraftKings now. This line is already 7.0 at most locations, so I don’t anticipate it being around for long.

Cleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers Pick

  • Pick: Browns +5.5
  • Current Line: -110; DraftKings
  • Bet To: +4.5 (-110)

The Steelers ultimately came through Sunday vs. the Ravens, which should surprise no one. It was a spot I highlighted in last week’s Early Lines piece because it’s a spot where Mike Tomlin always covers. His teams are now 9-1-2 ATS as home underdogs in divisional contests. I’m not sure if it’s because he’s a master motivator or has some voodoo magic working for him, but the Steelers seem to get every single bounce when they need them.

The Steelers' magic was working overtime vs. Baltimore. Justin Tucker missed two field goals, Derrick Henry had his third fumble of the year, and Lamar Jackson threw just his third interception. Some of the credit, of course, goes to the Steelers defense, but the Ravens had looked unstoppable on offense all year.

Conversely, nothing went right for the Browns. They missed two field goals vs. the Saints, including one from less than 30 yards. That ultimately put them into a trailing game script, and when Jameis Winston falls behind, things can quickly go from bad to ugly. That’s exactly what happened on Sunday, with the Saints pouring in three fourth-quarter touchdowns.

That makes this the perfect opportunity to sell high on Pittsburgh and buy low on Cleveland. While the Steelers have been excellent as underdogs throughout Tomlin’s tenure, this is the spot where they’ve historically struggled. His teams are just 90-98-2 ATS as favorites, and they’re 45-57 when favored by more than four points.

Ultimately, I still think the Browns are a respectable team, while the Steelers seem prime for some regression. I’m willing to bet on that on Thursday night.

Detroit Lions at Indianapolis Colts Pick

  • Pick: Lions -7.5
  • Current Line: -110; FanDuel
  • Play To: -8.0 (-110)

At some point, you need to just stop thinking and KISS: keep it simple, stupid. That’s what my dad used to tell me on the basketball court, and it’s what I’m telling myself now about the Lions.

They absolutely steamrolled the Jaguars on Sunday, cruising to a 52-6 win. Normally, I would tell myself that a win like that makes you overvalued in the betting market. And that’s true: teams coming off a win of at least 35 points are just 54-72-5 ATS the following weeks dating back to 2005.

That said, the Lions are just a clear outlier at this point. We’ve already seen them win by this much once before this season, and they went out and blasted the Packers in Lambeau the following week. They somehow won a game where Jared Goff had five interceptions, which hadn’t been done since Matt Ryan in 2012.

Normal rules simply don’t apply to this team. When you’re this good—and the public is betting on you every single week—you’re not supposed to keep covering the spread. So, naturally, the Lions are 8-2 ATS so far this season. They lead the league with a +15.9-point average margin of victory, and they’re covering the spread by an average of +10.5 points. They are the definition of a wagon.

This isn’t a one-year development, either. With Dan Campbell at head coach, this team is now an absurd 50-25-1 ATS. They’re 29-14 ATS as underdogs and 21-11-1 ATS as favorites. It doesn’t matter who they’re playing or what the scenario is, this team just finds a way to cover.

What in the world can the Colts do to slow this team down? They managed to beat the Jets in Week 11, but everyone beats the Jets at this point. The Lions are a completely different animal, and at this point, I’m done fighting against it. Let’s go Lions.

Be sure to monitor our NFL Game Model throughout the early part of the week to see where the biggest edges appear before lines move!

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