Matt LaMarca delivers the early NFL betting odds and picks for Week 13.
One of the most important parts of being a successful sports bettor is getting the best number as often as possible. If you’re consistently getting better numbers than the closing number—also known as Closing-Line Value (CLV)—it’s an indicator that you’re on the right side. Of course, getting the best number doesn’t guarantee that you’re going to win, but being on the right side more often than not should add up over time.
So, what’s the easiest way to get the best number? Attacking the markets early. Once the sharps come in and help “shape” the market, it becomes much harder to find betting value. That’s why “chasing steam” is an easy way to lose money. If you’re consistently following the sharps and betting worse numbers than they originally got, you’re not really making the same bets.
With that in mind, let’s dive into Week 13 and look for some opportunities to find value.
Early NFL Week 13 Betting Odds and Picks
Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants Pick
- Pick: Cowboys -3.0
- Current Line: -115; FanDuel
- Bet To: -3.0 (-120)
The Giants look absolutely cooked. No one can fault them for their decision to bench and subsequently release Daniel Jones at quarterback. His injury guarantee was hanging over this team’s head, and if they weren’t going to play him, it made no sense to keep him around.
That said, NFL locker rooms are a complicated thing. Just because it might be in the best interest of your franchise to do something doesn’t mean it’s in the best interest of those individual players. They know that their chances of winning have diminished with Tommy DeVito taking over at QB, and they showed absolutely zero fight against the Bucs. They managed just 245 yards of total offense while surrendering 450 on defense. Their defensive line—which is the closest thing this team has to a strength—managed zero sacks against an offensive line that was missing Tristan Wirfs.
It doesn’t stop there. After the game, rookie wide receiver Malik Nabers had some interesting comments for reporters:
Does this look like a team that is going to be able to put things together on short rest? How about a team that wants to be away from their families for a meaningless game on Thanksgiving?
Meanwhile, the Cowboys apparently have some fight left in them. They played well enough to win against the Commanders on Sunday, albeit with a bit of good fortune. Cooper Rush and Rico Dowdle moved the ball offensively while their defense forced the Commanders into three turnovers.
As long as this matchup is Rush vs. DeVito—and there’s no reason to assume it won’t be—the Cowboys seem undervalued as just 3-point favorites. This line is up to Cowboys -3.5 at most locations, so I’m grabbing it while I can.
Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs Pick
- Pick: Raiders +13.0
- Current Line: -110; FanDuel
- Bet To: +12.5 (-110)
Another week, another disappointing performance for the Chiefs as big favorites. Despite losing to the Bills in Week 11, Kansas City still played with their food for most of the game vs. the Panthers. Carolina actually managed to tie the game with less than two minutes to go, but Patrick Mahomes was able to put them in position for a game-winning field goal.
This is nothing new for the Chiefs. The knock on them for most of the Mahomes era has been that they win but don’t cover. Since the start of the 2020-21 season, Mahomes is now 22-35-1 ATS when favored by more than a field goal. That includes a 1-5-1 mark so far this season. As a favorite of more than a touchdown, Mahomes is 12-20-1 ATS over the same timeframe.
The Raiders are not a good team, but they’ve already managed to cover once vs. KC this season. The Chiefs simply don’t have the dynamic offense that we’ve become accustomed to seeing in years past, making it tough to score enough points to cover these big numbers. They’re happy to lean on their defense and run game, and if it comes down to it, they know that Mahomes can always secure a win late. It’s a formula we’ve seen time and again in recent years, at least until the team flips the switch in the playoffs.
The Raiders are currently available at +13.0 on DraftKings, which is a monster number. There’s no harm in waiting to see if it gets to two full touchdowns, but I’m happy to play the Raiders regardless.
Philadelphia Eagles at Baltimore Ravens Pick
- Pick: Eagles +3.0
- Current Line: -115; FanDuel
- Play To: +3.0 (-120)
On the Week 12 NFL Futures podcast I recorded with Geoff Ulrich last Tuesday, I made the case for the Eagles being one of the most undervalued teams in the betting market. It feels like very few people are talking about them, but what they’ve done this season deserves recognition.
I’m writing this before the Eagles square off with the Rams on Sunday Night Football, but they’ve won six straight games since their Week 5 bye. They haven’t had to run a gauntlet of a schedule, but they’ve impressed in three straight weeks. They flattened the Bengals and Cowboys, and they breezed through the Commanders in Week 11. Philly outgained Washington by more than 150 yards, so it wasn’t quite as close as the final score indicated.
This team has completely turned around the defense that betrayed them down the stretch last year. They’re No. 6 in EPA per play defensively, and they’re first in the league in yards allowed per game.
The offense has also been rolling. With Saquon Barkley joining Jalen Hurts in the backfield, they have one of the most dynamic rushing attacks in football. When they have taken to the air, Hurts has been as efficient as ever: He’s averaged better than 10.5 adjusted yards per attempt since the bye week.
The Ravens are a tough matchup for anyone—especially in Baltimore—but they’ll be on short rest after playing on Monday in Week 12. The Ravens’ offense has been arguably the best in the league, but their defense is not in the same realm as the Eagles.
The Chargers have a chance to upset the Ravens on Monday night, and if that happens, I doubt we’ll be able to get a +3.0 afterward. I’m locking this in before that has the chance to happen.
