The action continues as the UFC heads to Louisville, Kentucky this Saturday for UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Imavov. The main event features a five-round fight between top ten contenders that is guaranteed to bring more clarity to the middleweight title picture.

There are 14 scheduled bouts in total, including six on the main card. That gives us plenty of opportunity to target some actionable wagers. This week’s UFC best bets are packed with four solid plays, including two totals for the night’s biggest fights. Let’s get started with the main event.

UFC Best Bets for Cannonier vs. Imavov

Over 4.5 rounds (-152; FanDuel)

Saturday’s main event is brilliant matchmaking that should put the winner one fight away from a title shot. Jared Cannonier is coming off his most impressive performance to date. Last June, he punished Marvin Vettori for five rounds while racking up 241 significant strikes, including 173 head shots. Nassourdine Imavov’s rise up the rankings has been fueled by a 4-1 run with his only loss coming to former middleweight champion, Sean Strickland, at light heavyweight on short notice. I was surprised to see Cannonier maintain his status as the betting underdog this week, but the competitiveness of this bout has me turning to the total. Here’s why my best bet in the main event is on the over.

When the sportsbooks set the total at this number, bettors should pay attention. In 2024, the over is 8-1 in fights with a closing total of 4.5 rounds. Alex Perez’s knockout of Matteus Nicolau at UFC Vegas 91 is the only outlier. The over has also hit in 14 of 18 main events this year, sending over bettors to the window at a 77% clip. Trends alone are never a solid reason to place a wager, but cupping your ears and screaming “feed me knockouts” might not be the best strategy for betting these types of fights.

The most polarizing question is whether father time will finally catch up to Cannonier. The age gap (40 years old vs. 29 years old) is a big reason why Imavov has been able to maintain his spot as the betting favorite. He will have advantages with his footwork and speed, and mix in some wrestling if he is able to break his opponents 63% takedown defense.

Imavov poses more multi-dimensional problems than past opponents, but Cannonier has shown much more impressive conditioning in past fights, even as the senior by more than decade. Some will point to Cannonier getting clipped early as a warning sign, but I see his ability to recover and stay in the fight as a positive. Especially against Imavov, who has never been an early finisher in the UFC.

Both fighters have five-round experience and neither should overextend themselves early. Outside of second-round finishes against Edmen Shahbazyan and Ian Heinisch back in 2021, Imavov’s five other UFC fights went the distance. Five of Cannonier’s last six fights have ended in a decision as well. It’s important to note, judging can be unpredictable when the UFC travels outside of its typical hosting locations. While I slightly favor Cannonier, betting the over eliminates any risk from judging variance. Laying a little extra at -152 is well worth the security of not having my money at the mercy of the scorecards.

Expert Picks for UFC Fight Night

Jacoby vs. Reyes Over 2.5 rounds (+124; FanDuel)

It feels like yesterday Dominick Reyes came ever so close to dethroning Jon Jones as the light heavyweight champion of the world. Four years and three straight knockout losses later, Reyes looks to get back in the win column as a heavy underdog against Dustin Jacoby. I’m not completely sold on the outcome, but I feel strongly that the market isn’t giving enough credit to Reyes’ durability.

Level of competition is a more significant barometer in a sport where we don’t see the athletes perform on a daily, weekly, or even monthly basis. After holding up for five full rounds with Jones, Reyes’ knockout losses have come by the hands of two former champions (Jan Blachowicz, Jiri Prochazka) and Ryann Spann. I don’t know if that’s as big of an indictment against Reyes’ durability as the market is projecting.

I see value in the over as this is another fight that likely heads to the scorecards. Three of Jacoby’s last four fights have been decided by the judges, and a reckless approach by either fighter doesn’t make a lot of sense. Jacoby is far from a head-hunter, preferring to win more on consistency and volume. As the heavy favorite, I think he has the ability to dictate the pace in a close decision, which makes the over a solid bet at this price.

Rosas Jr. & Lee ML parlay (+140; BetMGM)

I have made it a focus to be more selective on moneyline parlays. I see this as a good spot to test the waters by backing two fighters, who are coincidentally on opposite ends of their career spectrums.

Raul Rosas Jr. is a highly touted prospect. The 19-year old grappling specialist received a massive promotional push before falling flat in front of a huge audience on the main card at UFC 287. It’s important to remember that fight was over a year ago.

His opponent, Ricky Turcios fights like a tornado. He averages 5.08 significant strikes per minute and his pace will force Rosas Jr. to prove he isn’t the same fighter who ran out of gas in his first professional defeat.

I expect Rosas Jr. to answer the bell. This fight is a re-book from earlier this year. Rosas Jr. was the clear favorite, and the market hasn’t closed the gap with support for Turcios the second time around. I don’t see Turcios being able to handle the grappling of “El Nino Problema”. Rosas Jr.’s elite back-takes will help him ride out a decision if he isn’t able to lock in an early submission win.

For our second leg, I’m targeting a woman fighting for her UFC career. Andrea Lee is a 22-fight veteran with her back against the wall amidst a four-fight losing streak. She gets a good bounce-back spot against an opponent she previously defeated in 2019, who is 0-3 in her last three trips to the Octagon.

In a striker versus grappler matchup, I expect Lee to come out guns-blazing and put Montana De La Rosa in an early hole. That’s a big advantage in a three round fight that’s -330 to go to the scorecards. De La Rosa has only recorded one takedown during her last three fights, so it’s hard to envision her winning the final two rounds with control. I will take the desperate striker that’s willing to lay everything on the line. 

Soriano ML vs. Baeza (+165; BetMGM)

Good plus-money underdogs have been hard to come by in these UFC streets of late. In the last four events (covering 49 total fights), there have been only seven plus-money underdog winners (14.2%). That being said, put my money on Punahele Soriano.

There are some interesting dynamics at play that are creating the perfect storm for getting a real good price on the underdog. Moving down a weight class on a losing streak is typically a red-flag. However, the Hawaiian is a heavy-hitter who’s power should pose a big problem for Miguel Baeza in this fight. Against a hittable opponent, I’m less worried about the cardio aspect that comes with dropping down in weight. Both fighters operate at a negative striking differential. However, Baez absorbs over five significant strikes per minute with 53% striking defense. He is consistently getting outlanded. Not a good sign for a fighter coming off consecutive knockout losses in a matchup where he doesn’t hold a significant power advantage.

The red flags are just much brighter on the Baeza side. When I factor in the two-year layoff, the striking defense, and the power of Soriano, the implied odds of 37% seem awfully short. Maybe I am a sucker for the crazy, warrior spirit of Hawaiian fighters. At +165 odds, I'm going to risk it and find out.