FedEx St. Jude Championship Odds and Picks: A 45-1 Outright Winner to target

Last week started poorly but ended up being an absolute thriller down the stretch with Max Greyserman imploding on the final five holes. Greyerserman had a four-shot lead with five holes to play after he improbably holed out for eagle on 13, but promptly recorded a quad bogey on the next hole and then a four-putt double bogey two holes later. 

That allowed Aaron Rai to grab the win (although bets weren’t cashed till Monday thanks to some Matt Kuchar shenanigans), a player who was featured in the Wyndham Championship betting picks for this article. 

Overall we hit a +3500 winner in Rai last week, a +900 top in JJ Spaun, and a Top 10 and Top 20 placing with Eric Cole. If you followed the bets and unit sizing on the betting card (always available at the end of this article) you were up 33.87 units for the event. 

Since I started tracking the units every week at the Travelers, we’re now up 42.14 units (over eight events).  

Side note: If you’re looking for picks for the upcoming NFL season, be sure to follow our FREE NFL bet tracker which already has plenty of futures bets up to consider. 

This week, the playoffs start. The FedEx St. Jude is just a 70-man event and marks the beginning of the three-event playdown that is the FedEx Cup playoffs. The old format used to see players have to navigate four events and, quite frankly, it was far too drawn out as no one cares about playoff golf once football starts. 

Now that it’s down to three events (and has been for a few years) only the top 50 players in the FedEx Cup standings will move on to next week. That makes this week extra crucial for those sitting between 40-70 in teh standings right now.

Here’s how the last three FedEx St. Jude Championships have played out. 

2021 – Abraham Ancer (WGC event) (+5000) -15

• This year’s event was played around the same time but was considered a WGC event and had a limited field of around 70 golfers
• Ancer came in playing well having booked four top 10 finishe sovet his last seven PGA starts
• He gained over 2.5 strokes on APP, ATG and PUTT and beat out Hideki Matsuyama and Sam Burns in a playoff

2022 – Will Zalatoris (+2500) -15

• Much like Ancer, Zalatoris was coming off a great stretch of golf when he won this event. 
• He had finished T2 at two of the previous three major championships and played the week prior at the Wyndham, finishing T21 and gaining strokes putting and on approach
• He beat Sepp Straka in a playoff and gained 7.5 stroes on approach and 2,5 strokes putting for the week

2023 – Lucas Glover (+10000) -16

• Glover was a massive longshot at +10000 last season, but was coming in with some stupendous form. 
• He had won the Wyndham the week prior by two strokes and had gained over four strokes on approach in four of his previous five starts
• He also won in a playoff, beating Patrick Cantlay as both men got in the house at 16-under; Glover only gained 2.5 strokes on approach but gained over 3.0 strokes putting and around the greens

I went over the course and some betting trends on Monday in the early week FedEx Championship course preview. If you haven’t familiarized yourself with TPC Southwind yet, I recommend you do so. It’s a tighter par 70 with some hazardous water that plays somewhat similar to some of the tougher Florida courses we see in March and April.  

Today, though, I’m honing in on specific bets and creating a weekly betting card, which I’ll summarize at the bottom of the article. Before we get to the good stuff, here are a few more notes about the 2024 FedEx St. Jude Championship to keep in mind.

• It’s a 70-man field with no cut line; all 70 players will get in four rounds
• The last three versions of this event have seen a playoff
• TPC Southwind used to host a WGC event and regular PGA event with the same name, so many players have deeper course history to go off this week
• There are no alternates allowed, so any late withdrawal means the field will get reduced by one. 
• As of now, the weather looks hot with highs of 90F or better on all four days with some potential gusts moving in on Friday. Expect tough conditions and firm greens which may put a bigger emphasis on around the green play this week.

Betting Odds for the FedEx St. Jude Championship

2024 FedEx St. Jude Championship Top 10 names in betting odds (DraftKings):

2024 FedEx St. Jude Championship Best Bets

Below are my favorite betting targets for the week. I’ve created an entire card you can peruse at the end and also added unit sizing for each play. 

While I have a handful of outright plays I do like playing many of these names in the placing department, or as matchup plays as well. I’ve also included placing options for some names if you want exposure to both options (or only want to bet some players for a place).

For odds, I’ve also used the best options available at the time of writing so you know where to look and what to look for. 

Additionally, if you can make each-way bets (win and place bets in one) then I’ve included that option for some players as well where the odds are relevant. 

For more information on how each-way bets work, you can click here. 

Sahith Theegala Outright (+4500; FanDuel)

• Top Five (+850; Fanduel)
• Top 10 (+350; Fanduel)

Theegala has been close all season to booking a second win. His off-the-tee game can at times give his bettors the heebie-jeebies but he’s been about as consistent as he’s ever been in that category of late, and gained 4.4 strokes OTT at the water-logged TPC Twin Cities in his last start – where he finished a strong T6. 

For the year, Theegala has landed seven top-10 finishes and the landing spots for some of these big weeks are worth noting. He landed a career-best T9 at TPC Sawgrass, a T6 at Bay Hil, and a T2 at Harbour Town Golf Links (RBC Heritage), a venue whose smaller greens and tight fairways make it a great comparable for this week’s test.

I’ve been prone to avoiding Theegala this season as his betting numbers have gotten quite small in spots, but this balloon back to the +4000-+5000 range looks worth taking advantage of. He was +3000 at the Travelers back in July (another limited field event) and while the 3M Open didn’t have the quality field that this event has, his odds have more than doubled from that event at some sportsbooks.

I’m betting Theegala through the top 5 and top 10 markets and may also look to back him in the “without the big 3 market (Schauffele, McIlroy, Scheffler)” as well. He’s a great putter who has gained over 2.0 strokes ATG and putting at TPC Southwind in each of the past two seasons. With his ball striking now in form, this looks like a great time for him to strike, especially with most of the top players coming in of of what was likely a hectic Olympic event. 

Patrick Cantlay Outright (+2400; bet365)

I don’t know why, but Patrick Cantlay always seems to come alive this time of year. Maybe the guy just likes chasing money, or maybe he’s happy to have that huge pressure of chasing a major done for the year. The fact is, the American has now booked three of his seven career wins in the FedEx Cup playoffs, and seen five of his seven wins come after July – so he’s always someone to take note of when late summer rolls around. 

Cantlay’s also not playing terrible golf at the moment. He’s gained strokes on approach in five straight starts and has gone T25-T5-T3 over his last three events. At the Open, he was tied with Xander Schauffele (the eventual winner) after two rounds but a lack of birdies left him drifting down the leaderboard on the weekend.

I’m not the biggest Cantlay fan, but I am still of the opinion that the talent gap between Cantlay and some of the top players isn’t quite as big as the current odds suggest. As mentioned above, the 32-year-old has won three playoff events and that number could easily be bigger, as he was a little unlucky to have lost out to Lucas Glover in a playoff at this venue last season. He should also be coming into this year’s playoffs with some extra motivation having been the bubble boy for making the American Olympic team in Paris.

Cantlay’s excelled at places like TPC Stadium and Harbour Town so TPC Southwind makes for a great spot for him to book his next trophy. With his approaches trending up and his putting having gained him over 5.0 strokes at both the Travelers and US Open, I don’t see a problem with backing him one more time to get over the hump at +2200 or better.

Tom Kim Each-Way 1/4 Top Five (+3000; bet365)

Kim was one of the first names to come to mind when I started research for this event. Here’s the jist of what I wrote about him earlier in the week in our FedEx St. Jude Course Preview.

“He’s extremely consistent off the tee (11th in Fairways Gained), top 15 in proximity stats from 125-150 yards and 150-175 yards, and sixth in opportunities gained over the last 24 rounds. Overall, these shorter types of accuracy-driven courses are exactly the sort of setups where Kim’s elite ball striking should give him the best chance at grabbing wins.

He’s now played TPC Southwind twice, finishing T13 in 2022 on debut and T24 last year. He’s not competed for the win in either season but did shoot a 64 in Round 1 last season. Overall, he’s shot 69 or better in six of his eight competitive rounds at this week’s venue and produced three rounds of 66 or better.

We’ve seen Kim go off as low as +2500 (Scottish Open) in larger field events more recently so he looks like a half-decent value in this shorter field. He’s got the exact sort of pedigree and stylistic fit we’ve seen pay off at this event the last few seasons.”

Stats aside, Kim is a great young player who has a lot more wins in his future. Given where we see names like Collin Morikawa and Ludvig Aberg go off on a weekly basis, his talent may still be somewhat underrated from an odds perspective. With the course not demanding a huge amount of length and his form solid, the South Korean was an easy early week add at +3000 or better.

FedEx St. Jude Championship Longshots and Placing Bets

Eric Cole Outright (+15000; FanDuel)

• Top 10 (+800; FanDuel)

I’m sticking with my guy Eric Cole for one more week. The American has now paid off top 10 bets for us twice over the last month and closed with a hero round of 63 last week at the Wyndham, gaining an incredible 5.88 strokes putting over his final 18 holes to vault his way into a T7 finish. 

The hot round aside, Cole’s iron play has been extremely solid for over a month now. He gained 4.3 strokes on approach at the Wyndham and has now gained over 2.0 strokes on approach in four of his last five PGA starts. While he would be a shock winner, the venue this week brings in a lot of variance with all of the water in play and Cole’s a former runner-up at another highly variable venue in PGA National, where he lost in a playoff in 2023 to Chris Kirk. 

At the very least, he’s someone to take another stab within the top 10 market, as his betting number has ballooned up to +800, a big price for a player who has outperformed big odds like this multiple times over the past two seasons and comes in with three top 10 finishes over his last five starts.

Adam Hadwin Outright (+20000; FanDuel)

• Top 10 (+1000; FanDuel)
• Top 20 (+350; FanDuel)

Hadwin’s proven he’s not afraid to go toe-to-toe with the best players in the world when he’s in form. He booked a playoff loss around this time last season at the Rocket Mortgage (vs. Rickie Fowler and Collin Morikawa), a T2 finish to Tom Kim at the Shriners last fall, and a T3 finish to Scottie Scheffler just two months ago at the Memorial.

His recent results may not jump off the page but the Canadian gained 6.4 strokes ball-striking at the Wyndham last week where he finished T28, which was a nice way to bounce back after his disappointing effort at the 3M Open. That kind of consistent ball-striking will be key around TPC Southwind where staying out of the drink is a necessity for anyone planning to take a charge at the lead over the weekend.

Hadwin himself finished T16 at this event last year and has performed well throughout his career at other stadium-style courses like TPC Stadium and TPC Scottsdale. With him coming off a confidence-building finish at Sedgefield, and his odds some of the largest in the field, I’m perfectly fine laddering him (much like I did Cole last week) from the top 20 market down to an outright, to see if we can’t get another big payout. 

Full Card: 

• Patrick Cantlay +2400 outright .95 
• Sahith Theegala +5000 .35  / Top 5 +850 .4 / Top 10 +360 .65 
• Tom Kim +3000 Each-Way Top 5 0.55 / 0.55
• Eric Cole +15000 0.15 / Top 10 +800 .45 
• Adam Hadwin +20000 .1 / Top 10 +1000 .25 / Top 20 +350 .6