In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by Guillotine Leagues:
Super Duper Sunday—Did you miss me, or did you miss me? Don’t answer that. When they say the first thing you need when getting home from a family trip to Orlando is a vacation, they aren’t kidding.
I can almost hear Rodney Dangerfield now … Y’know, I just got back from Disney, and boy, are my foam ears tired. I get no respect, I tell ya …
Deep Dive Into The Eagles’ Super Bowl Chances
With just one game left on the docket, I thought it could use some extra special attention—WE’RE GETTING GRANULAR, BABY!
Remember, we’ve got you covered year-round. Ian Hartitz is breaking down all 32 NFL teams’ needs. Our very own Thor Nystrom was on the ground at the Senior Bowl to help provide you with the very best info straight from the players and coaches themselves. This being Super Bowl Week, we’ll have fun articles on favorite party foods and, of course, the national anthem. And plenty of serious betting and fantasy content.
Stay plugged in with us at Betting Life through the offseason as we cover every nook and cranny of the 2025 NFL Draft.
SAQUON BARKLEY’S LONGEST RUSH IN THE SUPER BOWL?
Take On Your Friends
Free head-to-head Super Bowl Guilloteenies are LIVE!
The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:
🍗 Are chicken wings overrated? Ranking Super Bowl party foods.
🤔 Dallas Goedert the Super Bowl difference maker? DFS plays for Sunday.
🏃♂️ If the Jets say goodbye to Aaron Rodgers, could Davante Adams be next? Ian analyzes New York’s team needs.
🏈 Senior Bowl prospects are still going to school. Thor and Freedman hand out report cards.
🏆 Big passing day incoming for Patrick Mahomes? His Super Bowl props tell the story.
NFC Champion Blitz🏈💥—Philadelphia Eagles Offensive Deep Dive
By John Laghezza
Through the broadest lens, all your favorite uncles and old-fashioned football fans alike will display precisely zero shock at Philly’s presence in the big game—defense wins championships, right? Well, that’s half the battle. Anyone with a leather helmet hanging on the wall will tell you in order to succeed with that modus operandi, you better be able to run the rock effectively as well. To that point, have we seen anyone embody and thrive so thoroughly in recent memory? And outside the combination of the Ravens’ Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry, can you name a more dynamic and terrifying backfield than Jalen Hurts plus Saquon Barkley? I’ll wait …
Philly not only led the NFL in rush rate (55.7%), but executed as efficiently as anyone (+0.06 EPA/Rush)—a truly remarkable coalescence in this pass-heavy era (image below). Look how far into that top right corner the Eagles are!
Before moving on from the Eagles’ most obvious stylistic element, the quality of this running game and subsequent growth in the postseason deserves just a little more attention—it will once again unsurprisingly find itself at the center of attention on Sunday, as always.
- 179.3 Rushing Yards Per Game: 2nd (227.7 In Playoffs)
- +0.06 EPA/Rush: 2nd (+0.25 In Playoffs)
- 4.9 Yards Per Rush: 5th (6.6 In Playoffs)
- 2.16 Yards Before Contact Per Rush: 2nd (2.34 In Playoffs)
- 25 +20-Yard Carries (6 In Playoffs)
While Philadelphia’s ground game is certainly the kelly-green belle of the ball, Kellen Moore has done an excellent job incorporating a unique wrinkle into a wider scheme—one I believe will act as the determining factor if they’re going to raise the Lombardi Trophy this weekend.
Somewhat counterintuitive on the surface, despite running the ball more than anyone, Hurts spent very little time under center—his 27 total conventional dropbacks were fewer than any other starting QB in the league besides Tua Tagovailoa, who played in just 11 games. You’d instinctively assume spending more than 80% of offensive snaps in the shotgun would translate into a more pass-centric offense— but that wasn’t the case.
Whether it’s the extra time to process defensive alignments or allowing their massive O-line to establish setup pull or cut blocks, Hurts made up for a lack of quantity with quality via ball fakes. In fact, for all the flak he’s taking, Hurts’ play-action passing stats pretty closely resemble a Super Bowl quarterback.
- 118.8 Passer Rating
- +0.40 EPA/Attempt
- 72.9% Completion Rate
- 9.3 Yards Per Attempt
- 5 TD : 0 INT
It’s a bit unusual and maybe even a bit dated or boring for the younger fanbase, but it works. Expect Philly to avoid reinventing the wheel and stick with precisely what got them to the dance. The question is, will they be able to capitalize on the deep shots necessary to dethrone the reigning champs?
HOW MANY RECEPTIONS FOR Travis Kelce?
NFC Champion Blitz🏈💥—Philadelphia Eagles Defensive Deep Dive
By John Laghezza
As the company’s foremost defensive wonk, you know I was in all my glory watching paesan Vic Fangio calling shots from up in the booth this season. We’ll get into the orchestrated changes after their Week 5 bye in just a second, but it’s painfully obvious the Eagles returned from that time off to become the undisputed top defense in the NFL. Notice the extreme nature of separation in critical metrics from the field—they simply cannot be overstated.
- 15.9 Points Allowed Per Game: 1st (2nd place, 19.3)
- 252.1 Yards Allowed Per Game: 1st (2nd place, 301.4)
- +116 Net Yard Differential: 1st (2nd place, +105)
- 4.3 Yards Allowed Per Play: 1st (2nd place, 5.0)
- +0.15 EPA Per Play: 1st (2nd place, +0.08)
- 23.6 Average Drive Distance: 1st (2nd place, 27.1)
- 57.4% Tackle Success Rate: 1st (2nd place, 55.5%)
Like so many things in life, success comes down to malleability—and that’s where Nick Sirianni and Vic Fangio truly deserve the most credit. Philadelphia entered the season with one of the most talented rosters in the league, with PFF defensive grades rating nearly 15% higher than the field. That said, you wouldn’t have known it through the first four weeks of play: Philly posted a dismal +0.06 EPA/Play while ranking 29th or worse in yards allowed per play and per game.
Coming out of the break, Philly’s coordinators fine-tuned their schematic dials by leaning into more nickel packages and better disguising zone coverages. What coach doesn’t wish they could create more pressure with fewer men?
Weeks 1-4 / Weeks 6-18:
- +6 Defenders In The Box: 69.8% / 81.3%
- 4-DBs On-field: 19.2% / 11.9%
- Blitz Rate: 16.3% / 11.4%
- Pressure Rate: 35.2% / 40.4%
- Man Coverage: 31.0% / 22.5%
- Zone Coverage: 63.7% / 73.8%
- Two-high Shells: 18.4% / 22.7%
- Cover-0: 9.8% / 3.0%
- Cover-6: 10.2% / 19.4%
So, for the less-geeky readers out there, it’s relatively simple. Philly decided to mostly abandon lining up without any deep safeties—instead relying on their wealth of talent up front to create pressure without sending extra defenders, and boy, did it pay off.
Given the meat-and-potato nature of the Eagles' construction, they’ll have every chance to win this game. It’s just a matter of playing mistake-free because we know Patrick Mahomes will be doing just that.
Hope you enjoyed today’s Betting Life newsletter! Please feel free to contact me on X @JohnLaghezza with any questions, comments, or feedback. I love hearing back from you!
