Freedman's Best Bets. Top Picks Against The Spread For NFL Week 14.

As I mentioned in the Monday Betting Life Newsletter, this has been a good year for favorites, who are 101-87-5 ATS (2.3% ROI, per Action Network).

Over the past couple weeks, favorites have been especially profitable: 20-9 ATS (31.6% ROI).

I said this last week, but I think it’s worth saying again: We’re at that point in the year where the difference between the good and bad teams really widens.

Early in the season, power ratings are compressed. Teams are healthy, organized and motivated. But by the second half, many of the bad teams are “experimenting,” making QB switches, firing coaches and descending into chaos.

In the final stretch of the regular season, we should expect to see increasingly large spreads when good and bad teams play — and many of these spreads might not be big enough, because it’s hard for projection systems (in my opinion) to catch up to the changes we see in teams.

With that in mind, my official numbers this week show value on some underdogs I wouldn’t want to bet. I think some of the best teams in the league are probably still underrated relative to the bad teams.

Reminder: Here’s what you’re getting with this piece.

1. My projected spreads for each game (as of Wednesday morning).
2. Notes on my QB value chart (as of Wednesday morning).
3. A list of my favorite spread bets for the week (as of writing).
4. Brief notes on my favorite bets (no more than a few short paragraphs on each bet).
5. Even briefer notes (hopefully) on other games that have my eye (for whatever reason).
6. A few general thoughts on candidates for picks contests.

Abbreviations: Check out the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use. (I don’t want to clutter up the intro by listing them all here.)

Freedman’s Week 14 Projections Against the Spread

I have two projection models. The first is my personal one. It’s the full Freedman: 100% me. Unadulterated. It’s probably too aggressive.

The second model is my “official” one, which blends my personal projections with other inputs. It’s more measured and presentable — and that’s the model I’m using to create these “official” spread projections for Week 14, ordered according to kickoff time.

Projections and consensus odds as of 7:45 a.m. Wednesday, Dec. 6. Edge” is how many points of value I see for the listed team. A positive edge is good. A negative edge is bad.

Freedman’s Week 14 QB Value Chart

Here are some notes on my updated QB value chart, which directly compares the ATS value of the starter to his backup. In creating this chart, I’ve relied partially on the work of Ben Fawkes and Robby Greer.

Here are some notes.

Dak Prescott has played at an MVP-caliber level in the seven games since his subpar Week 5 performance against the 49ers, passing for 2,173 yards and 21 TDs to just two INTs with a 70.5% completion rate and 10.0 AY/A. He’s now No. 2 — behind only Patrick Mahomes — in ATS value relative to his backup.

Jordan Love’s recent play has catapulted him up the QB chart. Last week, I had him at +4.5 points relative to rookie backup Sean Clifford. This week, that number is +5.

For Week 13 MNF, I bet the under on Jake Browning’s completion prop. I was wrong. He got a +1.6 boost from his performance against the Jaguars.

In the early market, the Jaguars were -3 against the Browns with Trevor Lawrence at QB. After he was injured on MNF, that line flipped to Browns -3. I have C.J. Beathard as “only” a -4.3 downgrade, but I might not be pessimistic enough on him, given how far the line has moved.

Recently, a media personality who will remain nameless suggested that the Eagles should bench Jalen Hurts for Marcus Mariota. While I do think many people are overreacting to and slightly misinterpreting what he was trying to say, now’s a nice time to point out that I have the downgrade from Hurts to Mariota at -4.3.

As of writing, I’m assuming that Trevor Siemian will start for the Jets this week, but that’s far from a certainty. At least we know it won’t be Tim Boyle, whom the team waived. I have Siemian as a +1 upgrade on Boyle.

I doubt that Derek Carr (concussion, ribs) will play this week, so we’ll likely see backup Jameis Winston, who should inject some variance into the offense. While that will give the Saints a higher ceiling, it will also push their floor lower into the ground. I have him as a -0.8 downgrade.

I can’t believe I’m saying this — and it’s based on a small sample — but given what we’ve seen out of Mac Jones this year and Bailey Zappe for his career … I have Zappe as a +0.1 upgrade on Jones. And that’s despite the fact that Zappe “led” an offense that scored zero points last week. Unbelievable.

In a vacuum, I have Mitchell Trubisky as a +0.9 upgrade on Kenny Pickett — but on a short week we could still see Trubisky look rough.

I’m tentatively expecting that we see Joe Flacco start another game in place of Dorian Thompson-Robinson (concussion). I have the veteran as a +2.3 upgrade over the Day 3 rookie.

Bryce Young’s descent down the QB chart is complete. He’s now dead last among starters as a -2.4 downgrade on his backup.

Freedman’s Favorite Week 13 Bets

Here are my favorite ATS bets currently. For all the bets I’ve made for the week, check out our 100% FREE bet tracker.

• Ravens -7 vs. Rams (-110, Caesars)
• 49ers -10.5 vs. Seahawks (-110, FanDuel)
• Dolphins -13 vs. Titans (-110, DraftKings)

This is chalky and I feel disgusting. Oh well.

Ravens -7 vs. Rams (-110, Caesars)

This is a “weather” game. The total has dropped from 44.5 to 40.5 as the forecast calls for a high likelihood of heavy rain and winds approaching 20 miles per hour.

This is a highly negative situation for the Rams, who play indoors and have an offense that is largely built around the passing game. If forced into a one-dimensional game script, they could struggle against the Ravens defense, which is No. 2 in EPA (-0.147, per RBs Don’t Matter). 

As for the Ravens, they’re very comfortable with an offense driven by the ground game: QB Lamar Jackson is one of the league’s best runners, and the Ravens are No. 1 in offensive rush EPA (0.061) and SR (47.5%).

I expect the Ravens to be rested and ready off the bye and highly motivated given that they have a real shot to secure the No. 1 seed in the AFC.

• Original Bet: -7 (-110)
• Cutoff: -7 (-110)

You can tail the Ravens at Caesars, where you can get your first bet of up to $1,000 completely on the house when you sign up for a new account below!

49ers -10.5 vs. Seahawks (-110, FanDuel)

This bet is based primarily on vibes, as my projection leans slightly to the Seahawks. But I think I’m probably still too low on the 49ers even though I have them as the No. 1 team in my power ratings.

I have the 49ers at +8.25, which is a +1.5 ahead of the Ravens at No. 2 (+6.75), followed shortly by the Cowboys (+6.5) and Dolphins (+6.5).

But the 49ers are +8.8 at Inpredictable. They’re +10.7 in the Football Power Index (per ESPN).

Before their 42-19 road win over the Eagles, the 49ers were +9.37 in the Massey-Peabody Power Ratings, and I imagine that number has only gone up. 

One oddsmaker has the 49ers +5 relative to his No. 2 team.

So there’s a very real chance that I’m not high enough on the 49ers.

QB Brock Purdy is No. 1 in AY/A (10.2), composite EPA + CPOE (0.215), and QBR (75.6, per ESPN). 

With Purdy, the 49ers are 3-0 ATS (89.3% ROI) against the Seahawks and have covered by an average margin of +8.17 points.

Just on Thanksgiving, the 49ers beat the Seahawks 31-13 in Seattle.

The Seahawks have three extra days of rest off Thursday Night Football, but this is also their third road game in four weeks.

In their nine wins this year, the 49ers have an average point differential of +20.4. With the No. 1 seed in sight, I think they pile on the points.

• Original Bet: -10.5 (-110)
• Cutoff: -10.5 (-110)

You can tail the -10.5 on FanDuel, where you can get up to $150 in bonus bets when you sign up below and your first bet of $5 or more wins!

Dolphins -13 vs. Titans (-110, DraftKings)

I’m hardcore going against my projection with this game, but I think my power ratings are probably underselling the Dolphins and overselling the Titans.

The Dolphins are a league-best 7-1 ATS (66.4% ROI) as favorites. When facing outclassed teams, they absolutely smash. In their nine wins, they have a +18.6 point differential. 

Compare that to the Titans, who are historically strong as underdogs with HC Mike Vrabel. Before this season, he was 25-17-1 ATS (14.3% ROI) when getting points.

This year, though, the situation has changed. RB Derrick Henry (concussion) is slowing down, and he’s likely to be out this week with an injury. And rookie QB Will Levis does not appear to be the promised one: He’s 1-4 ATS (-61.0% ROI).

Dec 3, 2023; Landover, Maryland, USA; Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill (10) runs with the ball en route to a touchdown as Washington Commanders safety Jartavius Martin (20) chases during the first quarter at FedExField. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

But ultimately this game for me comes down to the matchup of the Dolphins pass offense vs. Titans pass defense.

The Dolphins have the league’s third- and fourth-best marks in offensive dropback EPA (0.225) and SR (51.7%). The Titans have the third- and fourth-worst marks in defensive dropback EPA (0.159) and SR (48.5%).

The Dolphins should be able to put up points in a hurry, especially at home — where QB Tua Tagovailoa is 16-6 ATS (39.0% ROI) — and I don’t see the Titans having enough offensive competency to get the backdoor cover.

• Original Bet: -13 (-110)
• Cutoff: -13.5 (-110)

You can tail the Dolphins at DraftKings, where you can get $150 in bonus bets INSTANTLY when you place your first bet of $5 or more!

Week 14 Games That Have My Attention

Steelers -6 vs. Patriots

The Chargers just covered against the Patriots in Foxborough despite scoring only six points. I don’t really want to bet on QB Mitch Trubisky as a favorite when he’s getting inserted into the starting lineup on short rest, but I’m definitely not betting on the Patriots at this number.

Buccaneers +2.5 at Falcons

If this number moves up to +3, great. If not, I’ll probably tease the Bucs to +8.5.

Panthers +5.5 at Saints

I don’t want to bet on the Panthers. But Saints QB Jameis Winston is 8-19-1 ATS (-41.5% ROI) as a favorite. And he’s 2-9 ATS (-65.4% ROI) as a favorite of more than a field goal.

Bengals +1 vs. Colts

I haven’t bet this yet — and I might not — but I have the Bengals as slight favorites.

Bills +2.5 at Chiefs

If I hadn’t already bet Bills +3, I’d be fine with teasing them up to +8.5.

Eagles +3.5 at Cowboys

I bet the Cowboys at -2.5 on the lookahead, but now I’m showing the slightest of value on the Eagles at +3.5. I probably won’t do it, but the Neanderthal part of my brain — which, let’s face it, is probably the supermajority of my brain — is tempted to take the +3.5 and hope the Cowboys win by a field goal.

Giants +6.5 vs. Packers

I have the Giants rated as the league’s worst team (-8.0) — but they’re at home off the bye, and HC Brian Daboll is 15-9-1 ATS (18.9% ROI) as an overall underdog and 5-1-1 ATS (50.5% ROI) with QBs who aren’t Daniel Jones (knee, IR). 

Freedman’s Week 14 Contest Picks

Various sportsbooks (such as the SuperBook, Circa and DraftKings) run season-long contests in which participants pick five games each week, and whoever has the most ATS victories at the end of the season wins.

I’m participating in a contest at DraftKings, and here’s my record.

• Week 13: 2-3
• 2023: 42-23

In the DraftKings contest, every entry is required to take one week off between Weeks 1-17. I strongly considered skipping last week because I initially didn’t see much value on the board — and I wish I would’ve. Anyway…

Based on the current consensus odds and my projections, here are a few general thoughts on the DraftKings contest for Week 14.

Note: Some of my thoughts will probably change based on line movement, news, and additional research.

• I expect most underdogs of at least +5 (Patriots, Panthers, Jets, Giants, Titans and maybe Seahawks — but not Rams) to have minimal exposure in the contest.
• I think the 49ers and Dolphins will both be popular.
• I anticipate that most favorites of no more than -3 (Falcons, Colts, Browns, Vikings and Chargers) will have low pick rates.
• I imagine that the Cowboys-Eagles and Chiefs-Bills will be popular games for people to attack on all sides given the high-leverage and -profile nature of those matchups.

Abbreviations

• Against the Spread (ATS)
• Return on Investment (ROI)
• Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
• Expected Points Added (EPA)
• Success Rate (SR)
• Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)

Previous Best Bets Pieces

My previous best bets pieces can be found on my author page.