Freedman's Best Bets. Top Picks Against The Spread For NFL Week 15.

In Weeks 12-13, favorites dominated: 20-9 ATS (31.6% ROI, per Action Network).

Last week, though, underdogs had their best week of the season, going 10-4-1 ATS (34.4% ROI) and 8-7 ML (63% ROI).

This week, most of my projections lean toward the dogs.

Reminder: Here’s what you’re getting with this piece.

1. My projected spreads for each game (as of Wed. morning).
2. Notes on my QB value chart (as of Wed. morning).
3. A list of my favorite spread bets for the week (as of writing).
4. Brief notes on my favorite bets (no more than a few short paragraphs on each bet).
5. Even briefer notes (hopefully) on other games that have my eye (for whatever reason).
6. A few general thoughts on candidates for picks contests.

Abbreviations: Check out the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use. (I don’t want to clutter up the intro by listing them all here.)

Freedman’s Week 15 Projections Against the Spread

I have two projection models. The first is my personal one. It’s the full Freedman: 100% me. Unadulterated. It’s probably too aggressive. 

The second model is my “official” one, which blends my personal projections with other inputs. It’s more measured and presentable — and that’s the model I’m using to create these “official” spread projections for Week 15, ordered according to kickoff time.

Projections and consensus odds as of 7:15 a.m. ET Wednesday, Dec. 13. “Edge” is how many points of value I see for the listed team. A positive edge is good. A negative edge is bad.

Freedman’s Week 15 QB Value Chart

Here are some notes on my updated QB value chart, which directly compares the ATS value of the starter to his backup. In creating this chart, I’ve relied partially on the work of Ben Fawkes and Robby Greer.

Here are some notes.

I have Justin Herbert (finger, IR) +6.1 points ahead of backup Easton Stick, who has been in the league since 2019 but will draw his first NFL start on Thursday. He played only 37 snaps in relief of Herbert last week, but he looked passable in his limited action with a 7.5 AY/A.

Jake Browning is now a +3.5 points ahead of No. 3 QB A.J. McCarron. It’s a weird world.

Joe Flacco is a +2.4 upgrade on Day 3 rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson. In Flacco, the Browns may have stumbled onto a QB who can take them to the postseason.

The delta between Jared Goff and Teddy Bridgewater is diminishing by the week. Seven days ago it was +3.1. Now it’s +2.3.

I have the downgrade from C.J. Stroud to Davis Mills as -2. My gut says that the dropoff should be steeper, but Mills has 26 starts and a career mark of 6.1 AY/A. That’s not great, but it’s livable. He’s an experienced NFL QB.

Last week, I had the dropoff from Geno Smith to Drew Lock at -1.4. Now, it’s -0.9. Lock had two costly INTs in Week 14, but he also had 269 yards and two TDs passing with a 71.0% completion rate and 7.1 AY/A against a tough 49ers defense. If he starts again for the Seahawks this week, he could give them a fighting chance against the Eagles on MNF.

Bailey Zappe had maybe the best start a Patriots QB has had all season with his 240-3-1 passing performance last week against the Steelers on TNF. He’s now a +0.6 upgrade on the benched Mac Jones, who seems destined to end up as a backup QB for Kyle Shanahan.

Last I had Zach Wilson as a +0.2 upgrade on Trevor Siemian. This week, +0.6. There’s no denying that Wilson looked his best against the Texans (301 yards, two TDs passing, 9.5 AY/A).

I have Nick Mullens as a -0.4 downgrade on Joshua Dobbs. Mullens is probably the better passer, but Dobbs is a superior runner, and his ability to create with his legs helps to open up the offense (in theory).

Tommy DeVito is now only a -0.8 downgrade on Tyrod Taylor. Last week, that number was -1.4. Increasingly, he looks like an NFL-ish QB.

Am I the only person who thinks that Mitchell Trubisky didn’t look awful last week? It was his first start of the season, and it was on short rest against a tough Patriots defense. He wasn’t great as a passer (4.7 AY/A), but he was much better than Pickett as a runner (8-30-1 rushing). I might be alone in this, but I have Trubisky as a +1.3 upgrade on Pickett.

Last week, Bryce Young was a -2.4 downgrade on backup Andy Dalton. This week, -2.7. The season can’t end quickly enough for the rookie.

Freedman’s Favorite Week 15 Bets

Here are my favorite ATS bets currently. For all the bets I’ve made for the week, check out our 100% FREE bet tracker.

• Bears +3.5 at Browns (-110, PointsBet)
• 49ers -13.5 at Cardinals (-110, DraftKings)
• Rams -6.5 vs. Commanders (-110, FanDuel)

Bears +3.5 at Browns (-110, PointsBet)

Two big factors are driving this bet.

The first is the Bears defense. It was ravaged by injuries early in the year — especially in the secondary — but since Week 6 (whenever No. 1 CB Jaylon Johnson returned) the Bears are No. 5 in defensive EPA (-0.113, per RBs Don’t Matter). The Bears have an underappreciated and legitimately good defense.

Nov 19, 2023; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields (1) runs the ball against the Detroit Lions in the first quarter at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Lon Horwedel-USA TODAY Sports

The second factor is health. The Bears are almost entirely healthy. The Browns, though, are extremely injured. Their offensive line is decimated: They’re without their two starting OTs and swing OT and might be without their center. They’re without their No. 1 RB and might without his backup. On defense, they’re already without their No. 3 S, and their starting SS and FS exited last week with injuries. And they might be without two DTs.

And, of course, the Browns haven’t had their starting QB for weeks.

It’s hard for any team to sustain with injury issues that significant.

• Original Bet: +3.5 (-110)
• Cutoff: +3 (-110)

49ers -13.5 at Cardinals (-110, DraftKings)

For the second straight week, I’m going against my projection and betting the 49ers based almost solely on vibes.

I think I’m still too low on the 49ers in my power ratings. I have them easily at No. 1 (+8.25), but they are +8.9 at Inpredictable. They’re +10.9 in the Football Power Index (per ESPN).

Before their 28-16 win over the Seahawks, the 49ers were +11.0 in the Massey-Peabody Power Ratings, and I imagine that number has only gone up. 

Last week, one oddsmaker had the 49ers +5 relative to his No. 2 team.

So there’s a very real chance that I’m not high enough on the 49ers.

QB Brock Purdy is No. 1 in AY/A (10.4), composite EPA + CPOE (0.215), and QBR (74.7, per ESPN).

The Cardinals are in a decent situational spot: They’re at home off the bye, and the 49ers are playing their second consecutive divisional game and third road game in four weeks. Plus, QB Kyler Murray is 23-13-2 ATS (22.7% ROI) as an underdog for his career.

Still, I don’t care.

The 49ers beat the Cardinals 35-16 in Week 4 — when the Cardinals were still trying to win games. Now, coming out of the bye, with just a month left, as one of the worst teams in football, facing the league’s best team, which controls its destiny for the No. 1 seed … the Cardinals might have a half-hearted effort.

In their 10 wins this year, the 49ers have an average point differential of +19.6.

• Original Bet: -13.5 (-110)
• Cutoff: -13.5 (-110)

You can tail this number at DraftKings, where you can get up to $1,000 in DK Dollars when you sign up below and place your first bet of at least $5!

Rams -6.5 vs. Commanders (-110, FanDuel)

The Commanders are coming out of the bye and should theoretically be rested and prepared — but there’s just as good of a chance that they (with their 4-9 record and No. 32 defense) will be checked out.

The Rams, though, are fighting for a playoff spot at 6-7, and since their Week 10 bye they’ve averaged 30.3 points per game.

With an explosive offense and sufficient defense (42.7% SR, No. 13), the Rams should be able to win by margin.

• Original Bet: -5.5 (-110)
• Cutoff: -7 (-110)

You can tail the Rams at FanDuel, where you can get $150 in bonus bets when you sign up for a new account and place a first bet of $5 or more on a team that wins!

Week 15 Games That Have My Attention

Chargers +3 at Raiders

I’m showing slight value on the Chargers, but they’re a big unknown with QB Easton Stick, plus WR Keenan Allen (heel) is uncertain to play after DNPs on Monday and Tuesday. If this number gets to +3.5, I’ll consider betting it. If it moves to +2.5, I might tease it. Then again, I might lay off entirely.

Bengals -3.5 vs. Vikings

I’d probably prefer to bet Bengals -3 with the certainty that Vikings WR Justin Jefferson (chest) will play than -3.5 with the Jefferson uncertainty. But I think this line is about right.

Steelers +2.5 at Colts

If I hadn’t bet this at +3 in the lookahead market, I’d be desirous to Wong tease the Steelers up to +8.5. 

Panthers +3 vs. Falcons

The Falcons are 2-7 ATS (-57.5% ROI) as favorites this year. I’d really like to bet against them. But the Panthers are 3-9-1 ATS (-48.3% ROI). As much as I want to fade the Falcons, I want to avoid betting on the Panthers even more. If this moves to +3.5, I’ll consider it. If it moves to +2.5, I’ll consider teasing. But, man, I hate this game.

Dolphins -8.5 vs. Jets

I’m the moron who bet the Dolphins at -13 in the lookahead market, so my opinion is probably worth less than zero in this spot, but I love teasing the Dolphins down to -2.5. QB Tua Tagovailoa at home is 16-7 ATS (33.0% ROI).

Texans +2.5 at Titans

We’re waiting to see how the practice report shakes out for the Texans and specifically QB C.J. Stroud (concussion) and WR Nico Collins (calf), but my projection is close to the market while assuming a worst-case health scenario for the Texans. And that makes them intriguing teaser candidates up to +8.5.

Patriots +9.5 vs. Chiefs

I’m showing value on the Patriots — but this number was +10.5 in the lookahead market. That was the time to invest in New England.

Cowboys +2.5 at Bills

The Cowboys are eminently teasable up to +8.5. I imagine this will be a one-score game either way.

Seahawks +4 vs. Eagles

I have this projected on the other side of +3, but I’d also like to wait and see if QB Geno Smith (quad) seems likely to play.

Freedman’s Week 15 Contest Picks

Various sportsbooks (such as the SuperBook, Circa and DraftKings) run season-long contests in which participants pick five games each week, and whoever has the most ATS victories at the end of the season wins.

I’m participating in the micro $5 contest at DraftKings, and here’s my record.

• Week 14: 4-1
• 2023: 46-24
• Standings: No. 57 of 13,503

In the DraftKings contest, every entry is required to take one week off between Weeks 1-17. I haven’t used my skip week yet, but this might be the week.

Based on the current consensus odds and my projections, here are a few general thoughts on the DraftKings contest for Week 15.

Note: Some of my thoughts will probably change based on line movement, news, and additional research.

• The QB uncertainty with some teams (Steelers, Texans, Seahawks) could create some easy line value.
• I expect the underdogs currently at +3 (Chargers, Panthers) to have minimal exposure in the contest.
• I think the Cowboys and Bills will both be popular given the high-leverage and -profile nature of their matchup.
• I anticipate that most favorites of no more than -3 (Raiders, Colts, Falcons and Titans) will have low pick rates.

Abbreviations

• Against the Spread (ATS)
• Return on Investment (ROI)
• Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
• Expected Points Added (EPA)
• Success Rate (SR)
• Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)

Previous Best Bets Pieces

My previous best bets pieces can be found on my author page.