Freedman's Best Bets. Top Picks Against The Spread For NFL Week 16.

In Weeks 12-13, favorites dominated: 20-9 ATS (31.6% ROI, per Action Network).

In Week 14, underdogs had their best week of the season, going 10-4-1 ATS (34.4% ROI) and 8-7 ML (63% ROI).

And then last week favorites stormed back and went 9-3-2 ATS (36.4% ROI).

For the season, favorites have beaten the vig: 114-100-8 ATS (1.5% ROI).

It’s one of those years.

Coincidentally, last week I was 5-1 ATS (+3.6 units).

Hopefully I can keep that rolling this week.

Reminder: Here’s what you’re getting with this piece.

1. My projected spreads for each game (as of Wed. morning).
2. Notes on my QB value chart (as of Wed. morning).
3. Brief notes on my favorite bets (no more than a few short paragraphs on each bet).
4. Even briefer notes (hopefully) on other games that have my eye (for whatever reason).
5. A few general thoughts on candidates for picks contests.

Abbreviations: Check out the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use. (I don’t want to clutter up the intro by listing them all here.)

Freedman’s Week 16 Projections Against the Spread

I have two projection models. The first is my personal one. It’s the full Freedman: 100% me. Unadulterated. It’s probably too aggressive. 

The second model is my “official” one, which blends my personal projections with other inputs. It’s more measured and presentable — and that’s the model I’m using to create these “official” spread projections for Week 16, ordered according to kickoff time.

Projections and consensus odds as of  7:30 a.m. Wednesday, Dec. 20. “Edge” is how many points of value I see for the listed team. A positive edge is good. A negative edge is bad.

Freedman’s Week 16 QB Value Chart

Here are some notes on my updated QB value chart, which directly compares the ATS value of the starter to his backup. In creating this chart, I’ve relied partially on the work of Ben Fawkes and Robby Greer.

Even though the Chargers suffered a 63-21 blowout loss last week on TNF, and even though much of backup Easton Stick’s production came in garbage time, I wasn’t unimpressed with him. He completed 71.9% of his passes with an 8.5 AY/A. I now have him as “only” a … checks notes … -5.7 downgrade on starter Justin Herbert (finger, IR). Lolz.

As “bad” as Trevor Lawrence has been this year, his 7.0 AY/A is respectable, and it’s not that far off last year’s 7.3 mark. Backup C.J. Beathard is a professional veteran, but he was much better at the beginning of his career with the 49ers (6.4 AY/A) — under HC Kyle Shanahan — than he has been over the past three years with the Jaguars (3.7 AY/A). With Lawrence (concussion) uncertain to play, I have Beathard as a -4.2 dropoff. 

I have the downgrade from C.J. Stroud to Case Keenum as only -2.1. My gut says that the dropoff should be steeper, but Keenum has 65 career starts and a career mark of 6.5 AY/A. That’s not great, but it’s livable. He’s an experienced NFL QB. There’s a chance that Stroud (concussion) will miss another week in the protocol, and the market has shifted against the Texans (-2.5 to +2.5) way more than I think is warranted.

Dec 18, 2023; Seattle, Washington, USA; Seattle Seahawks quarterback Drew Lock (2) looks to pass against the Philadelphia Eagles during the second quarter at Lumen Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

Two weeks ago, I had the dropoff from Geno Smith to Drew Lock at -1.4. Now, it’s -0.8. Smith (groin) should return to the starting lineup this week, but Lock looked competent over the past two weeks in his relief starts (68.8% completion rate, 7.0 AY/A). He has a real chance to stick around the league for years and — like Smith — he might eventually find his way back into a starting role.

The Steelers are switching from Mitchell Trubisky to Mason Rudolph as the preferred backup to injured starter Kenny Pickett (ankle). I don’t think it matters much who the team plays at the position — but Rudolph is almost certainly the worst of the three. With a 5.7 AY/A and just 10 NFL starts to his name at the age of 28, he has no ceiling and a basement-level floor. I have Rudolph as a -0.9 downgrade on Pickett.

Nick Mullens isn’t the runner that Joshua Dobbs is, but he’s a markedly better passer who has a stronger command of the system. Last week, I had him as a -0.4 downgrade on Dobbs. Now, a +0.7 upgrade.

The Falcons are once again making a QB switch and going with Taylor Heinicke. I have him as a +0.4 upgrade over the benched Desmond Ridder. Heinicke might have a little more YOLO to him, but the difference between them is negligible.

Last week, injury was added to insult for Zach Wilson (concussion), who exited the game early after completing 36.4% of his passes for a 2.4 AY/A. I have limited respect for Trevor Siemian, but he has 30 starts and a career 6.1 AY/A. I have him as an ever-so-slight -0.1 downgrade on Wilson — but there’s a real chance he’s the superior QB.

How much more Tommy DeVito do we need to see? I have him as a -1.0 downgrade on Tyrod Taylor, and that honestly doesn’t feel steep enough.

Will Levis (ankle) is uncertain to suit up, which means we might see Ryan Tannehill return to the starting lineup for the Titans — and that might be an upgrade. Levis has the higher long-term ceiling, but Tannehill has the better short-term floor. He’s a +1.0 upgrade on the rookie. Of course, there’s no guarantee we’ll see Tannehill if Levis is out. Maybe the team would opt for Malik Willis? (Gross.)

After his 248-yard, four-TD performance last week, Aidan O’Connell is now “only” a -1.2 downgrade on the benched Jimmy Garappolo. He’s still a Day 3 rookie.

Sam Howell has lost his luster. Jacoby Brissett is a solid +1.2 upgrade.

The more we see of Bryce Young, the worse he looks relative to backup Andy Dalton. Two weeks ago, he was a -2.4 downgrade. Last week, -2.7. This week, -2.8.

Freedman’s Favorite Week 16 Bets

Here are my favorite ATS bets currently. For all the bets I’ve made for the week, check out our 100% FREE bet tracker.

• Bills -12 at Chargers (-110, Caesars)
• Broncos -6.5 vs. Patriots (-110, BetMGM)
• Ravens +5.5 at 49ers (-110, FanDuel)

Bills -12 at Chargers (-110, Caesars)

The situational spot for the Chargers is the kind of thing that would appeal to sharp bettors, and that explains why the number dropped from -13.5 to -10.5 early in the week.

The Chargers are at home with extra time coming off TNF. They’re in the ultimate buy-low spot after suffering a 63-21 loss to the Raiders and firing former HC Brandon Staley and GM Tom Telesco. And the Bills are in a sell-high spot after back-to-back wins over the Chiefs and Cowboys.

Dec 17, 2023; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills running back James Cook (4) runs the ball in the second half against the Dallas Cowboys at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports

Even so, I don’t care — and apparently neither do some big bettors, because this line has moved up to -12.5 at some books.

The Bills are surging and the Chargers are Chargering.

The Bills have averaged 29.3 points since promoting QBs coach Joe Brady to playcaller in Week 11, and the defense held the Chiefs and Cowboys to 17 and 10 points after the Week 13 bye.

The Bills are getting right at the right time — and the Chargers don’t have their starting QB.

In their eight wins this year, the Bills have an average point differential of +18.9. When they win, the Bills blow teams out.

• Original Bet: -13.5 (-110)
• Cutoff: -14 (-110)

You can tail the Bills at Caesars, where you can get your first bet of up to $1,000 completely on the house when you sign up below!

Broncos -6.5 vs. Patriots (-110, BetMGM)

Note: I haven’t bet this yet because I’m waiting to see the early injury report for the Patriots … although, let’s be honest — what is that really going to tell me? If I see this start to move to -7 across the industry, I’ll probably grab a remaining -6.5.

I don’t have a high opinion of the Broncos, but I have a low opinion of the Patriots.

The Broncos are at least at home with an extra day to rest and prepare.

The Patriots have a terrible offense (-0.165 EPA, No. 30, per RBs Don’t Matter) — and they’re injured on that side of the ball.

LT Trent Brown (ankle, hand, illness) was out last week, and his replacement — swing OT Conor McDermott (concussion) — exited the game early, as did LG Cole Strange (knee) and TE Hunter Henry (knee). And No. 1 RB Rhamondre Stevenson (ankle) was out, as was WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (ankle). 

And I think the Patriots defense is overrated. It’s elite against the run, ranking No. 1 in rush EPA (-0.216), but it’s subpar against the pass (0.067 EPA, No. 21).

• Cutoff: -6.5 (-120)

You can tail the Broncos at BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win when you sign up below!

Ravens +5.5 at 49ers (-110, FanDuel)

The Ravens are the No. 2 team in my power ratings (+7) — behind only the 49ers (+9.5).

The 49ers are at home and get to face an East Coast team playing its second straight game on the road. The travel situation is not good for the Ravens.

But this is the kind of spot in which QB Lamar Jackson has historically thrived. In the regular season, Jackson as a road underdog is 8-1 ATS (73.0% ROI) and 6-3 ML (57.1% ROI, per Action Network).

For the sake of my 50-1 MVP ticket on 49ers QB Brock Purdy (logged in our bet tracker), I hope that the 49ers win and Purdy outplays Jackson — but I expect the Ravens to keep this relatively close.

• Original Bet: +6 (-110)
• Cutoff: +5 (-110)

You can tail the Ravens on FanDuel, where you can get $150 in bonus bets with a first bet of just $5 or more when you sign up below!

Week 16 Games That Have My Attention

Rams -4 vs. Saints

As I mentioned earlier this week on the “Bigger Picture” episode of the Betting Life Show, I now have the Rams rated as a top-10 team. I’m close to the market at this number, but I’m generally bullish on the Rams and definitely wouldn’t bet against them in this spot.

Steelers +2 vs. Bengals

You know I’ve already Wong teased this.

Titans +2.5 vs. Seahawks

Another Wong teaser leg. The Titans could get an upgrade at QB if they go back to Ryan Tannehill, and the Seahawks are in a sell-high spot on short rest off their MNF win over the Eagles and now playing their third road game in four weeks.

Texans +2.5 vs. Browns

Yet another Wong teaser leg, but I don’t like it as much as the two previous legs. Still, I think the market has possibly overadjusted on the news that C.J. Stroud (concussion) is likely to miss another game, and the Browns have drastic defensive home/road splits (13.1 points allowed in Cleveland, 30.7 points away).

Panthers +4.5 vs. Packers

I’m showing value on the Panthers — but I doubt you could pay me to bet on them.

Commanders +3 at Jets

The Commanders are bad — but who are the Jets to be -3 favorites against anyone, especially when they might be starting their No. 4 QB? And there’s also a chance we could see backup Jacoby Brissett in this game for the Commanders if starter Sam Howell struggles early.

Cowboys +1.5 at Dolphins

As I mentioned on the early lines episode, I have these two teams rated identically — and they’re stylistically similar in terms of how they win and lose — but I lean toward the Cowboys in this spot because of all the injuries the Dolphins have. If they get healthier, then I’ll be close to market, but right now I think the Cowboys are an ideal Wong teaser team.

Eagles -11.5 vs. Giants

I lean toward the Eagles, but I don’t want to lay a number this big with a team that has lost three consecutive games and just named Matt Patricia its defensive playcaller. 

Freedman’s Week 16 Contest Picks

Various sportsbooks (such as the SuperBook, Circa and DraftKings) run season-long contests in which participants pick five games each week, and whoever has the most ATS victories at the end of the season wins.

I’m participating in the micro $5 contest at DraftKings, and here’s my record.

• Week 15: 4-1
• 2023: 50-25
• Standings: No. 25 of 13,503

In the DraftKings contest, every entry is required to take one week off between Weeks 1-17. I haven’t used my skip week yet, so it’s either this week or next week.

I tentatively think this will be my week off so that I can focus on Christmas — but the injury situations with all the QBs might create so much line value that I feel I can’t pass it up. We’ll see.

Based on the current consensus odds and my projections, here are a few general thoughts on the DraftKings contest for Week 16.

Note: Some of my thoughts will probably change based on line movement, news, and additional research.

• The QB uncertainty with several teams (Titans, Texans, Jets, Jaguars) could create some easy line value.
• I expect most underdogs above +3 (Saints, Chargers, Panthers, Cardinals, Patriots, Raiders and Giants) to have minimal exposure in the contest.
• I think the Ravens and 49ers will both be popular given the high-leverage and -profile nature of their matchup.
• I anticipate that most favorites of less than -3 (Bengals, Seahawks, Browns and Buccaneers) will have low pick rates.

Abbreviations

• Against the Spread (ATS)
• Return on Investment (ROI)
• Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
• Expected Points Added (EPA)
• Success Rate (SR)
• Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)

Previous Best Bets Pieces

My previous best bets pieces can be found on my author page.