Freedman's Best Bets. Top Picks Against The Spread For NFL Week 18.

Since Thanksgiving, I’ve seen the spread board pretty well. Over the past six weeks, I’m 24-12-1 ATS (+9.8 units) with no week below .500.

Last week, I wrapped up the micro $5 DraftKings season-long picks contest No. 8 out of 13,503 with a 53-27 record and two picks out of first place. If not for a last-minute Cowboys defensive meltdown and the half-point hook on the Raiders … but I digress. 

It has been an up-and-down season, but hopefully, we’re able to finish strong.

The final week of the season is often weird. 

Some teams (usually those with locked-in playoff seeds) treat it like the preseason and rest most of their starters.

Others (those on the fringes of the playoffs) act as if it’s the postseason — because for them it basically is.

And still others (those who have effectively if not actually been eliminated for weeks) carry on as usual, because for them it’s just another meaningless end-of-season game.

It’s an information-and-motivation week more than a straightforward projection week. Some of the assumptions I’m making now — at 8:30 am ET on Wednesday, Jan. 3 — might look terrible by the end of the week. It’s worth acknowledging that and keeping it in mind now.

Reminder: Here’s what you’re getting with this piece.

1. My projected spreads for each game (as of Wednesday morning).
2. Notes on my QB value chart (as of Wednesday morning).
3. Brief notes on my favorite bets (no more than a few short paragraphs on each bet).
4. Even briefer notes (hopefully) on other games that have my eye (for whatever reason).

Abbreviations: Check out the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use. (I don’t want to clutter up the intro by listing them all here.)

Freedman’s Week 18 Projections Against the Spread

I have two projection models. The first is my personal one. It’s the full Freedman: 100% me. Unadulterated. It’s probably too aggressive. 

The second model is my “official” one, which blends my personal projections with other inputs. It’s more measured and presentable — and that’s the model I’m using to create these “official” spread projections for Week 18, ordered according to kickoff time.

Projections and consensus odds as of 8:30 a.m. ET Wednesday, Jan. 3. “Edge” is how many points of value I see for the listed team. A positive edge is good. A negative edge is bad.

Freedman’s Week 18 QB Value Chart

Here are some notes on my updated QB value chart, which directly compares the ATS value of the starter to his backup. In creating this chart, I’ve relied partially on the work of Ben Fawkes and Robby Greer.

After his MVP-clinching 321-yard, five-TD passing performance last week in a dominant 56-19 win over the Dolphins, Lamar Jackson now has the largest ATS value relative to his backup of any starting QB in the league — and it’s not as if Tyler Huntley is a bad QB. (More on him later.)

Jordan Love continues to impress. Since the Week 6 bye, he has 2,760 yards and 22 TDs passing to just five INT, and that’s despite having an injury-plagued pass-catching corps. He’s now a full six points ahead of rookie Day 3 backup Sean Clifford.

Justin Fields — now +3.1 ATS relative to backup Tyson Bagent — is at least making it a conversation in Chicago about what the Bears should do (for the second year in a row) with the No. 1 pick.

Joe Flacco is now a +3.1 upgrade over P.J. Walker — and even that might be selling him short. With 1,616 yards and 13 TDs passing in five starts, Flacco legitimately has looked like one of the league’s most competent QBs in his short stint with the Browns. I don’t think he’ll win Comeback Player of the Year, but he’s not undeserving.

Backup C.J. Beathard has looked competent this year for the Jaguars (7.0 AY/A), and last week he led the Jaguars to an easy 26-0 win over the Panthers. I expect starter Trevor Lawrence (shoulder) to return to action this week — but the difference between Beathard and the version of Lawrence we’ve seen this year continues to diminish. I now have Lawrence as only a +2.2 upgrade over his backup.

I’m assuming that the Vikings are going back to Nick Mullens after the Jaren Hall experiment fell flat last week, but that’s not a certainty. I have Mullens as a +1.7 upgrade over the Day 3 rookie.

With two strong performances (11.8 AY/A in Weeks 16-17), Mason Rudolph is now +1.1 ATS relative to the “injured”/benched Kenny Pickett, who has lost his job in the short term — and maybe the long term.

Last week, I had Jarrett Stidham as a -3.3 downgrade on the benched Russell Wilson. After his competent performance last week while missing multiple WRs (7.6 AY/A), Stidham is now only a -1.5 downgrade. And there’s a non-zero chance he’s better than Wilson — but we’re dealing with a small sample.

The bad news is that Bryce Young is now a -2.9 downgrade relative to veteran backup Andy Dalton. The good news is that Young is now theoretically worth two No. 1 overall picks.

Freedman’s Favorite Week 18 Bets

Here are my favorite ATS bets currently. For all the bets I’ve made for the week, check out our 100% FREE bet tracker.

• Ravens +3.5 vs. Steelers (-110, BetMGM)
• Lions -3 vs. Vikings (-110, FanDuel)
• Dolphins +3 vs. Bills (-110, DraftKings)

Ravens +3.5 vs. Steelers (-110, BetMGM)

I’m assuming in my projections that the Ravens will sit all their key starters for the entire game — but that might not actually happen.

In 2019 — the last time QB Lamar Jackson won the MVP and the Ravens entered the playoffs as the No. 1 seed — they rested their main players for most of the final week of the season. Jackson and six other starters didn’t even suit up.

In the Divisional Round, after effectively two weeks off, they lost 28-12 to the Titans.

This year, I think they might play their starters a little bit in an effort to avoid a slow start in the playoffs.

By the way — even though the Ravens rested starters in Week 17 of 2019, they still secured a 28-10 victory … against a Steelers team that was trying to win in order to make the postseason. Sound familiar?

After the game, Ravens players said they wanted to win in order to knock their division rival out of postseason contention.

And HC John Harbaugh said: “That puts an exclamation point on an excellent season.”

Although the Ravens weren’t sharp this preseason, remember that they have been excellent investments in “meaningless games” throughout the Harbaugh era. In the preseason, they are 38-19-1 ATS (28.9 ROI). As preseason underdogs, they’re 17-6 ATS (45.3% ROI, per Action Network). This has the feel of a preseason game for the Ravens — but that doesn’t mean they won’t still play to compete.

Finally, Tyler Huntley is one of the better No. 2 QBs in the league. This is his fourth season with the team, and he has made nine starts for the Ravens since 2021.

In a game featuring two backup QBs, give me the better team at home getting more than a field goal.

• Projection: +1.1
• Original Bet: +3.5 (-110)
• Cutoff: +3

You can tail the Ravens at BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win when you sign up below with promo code FANTASYLIFE:

Lions -3 vs. Vikings (-110, FanDuel)

This line has moved against the Lions. Earlier in the week, it was -5.5. Now it’s just a field goal.

Similarly, when the Lions and Vikings played two weeks ago, the line moved against the Lions, going from -3.5 to -2.5.

For whatever reason, the market likes the Vikings against the Lions.

And there’s also the possibility that the Lions will rest some of their starters, given that they’re likely to be the No. 3 seed whether they win or lose.

But I doubt it.

Detroit Lions head coach Dan Campbell during warmups before the Dallas Cowboys game at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas on Saturday, Dec. 30, 2023.

HC Dan Campbell isn’t the type of guy to rest his starters anyway — especially when the Lions still theoretically have something to play for in the No. 2 seed, which Campbell probably feels rightfully belongs to his team anyway instead of the Cowboys, given the way their game against each other ended last week.

Campbell has already said that regardless of the odds of getting the No. 2 seed the Lions are playing to win this week.

And that’s 100% in keeping with who Campbell is.

Last week, he went for the two-point conversion from the seven-yard line. Last year, he played to win in Week 18 even after the Lions had been eliminated from the playoffs — and they knocked off the Packers to keep them from reaching the postseason.

He wants to enter the playoffs on a high, and he’s motivated to remove last week’s loss from the minds of his players.

Campbell in division is 12-5 ATS (34.2% ROI). At home, he’s 17-7 ATS (36.0% ROI). At home in division … 6-2 (43.7% ROI).

Meanwhile, the Vikings have no satisfactory option at QB, and HC Kevin O’Connell is now 2-7-2 ATS (-47.0% ROI) in December and January.

• Projection: -5.4
• Original Bet: -3 (-110)
• Cutoff: -4

You can tail the Lions at FanDuel, where you can get up to $150 in bonus bets when you place your first bet of at least $5 after signing up below!

Dolphins +3 vs. Bills (-110, DraftKings)

I have the Bills just a hair ahead of the Dolphins in my updated power rankings (+6 vs. +5.75), and then I’ve deducted an extra 1.5 points from the Dolphins to account for their short-term injuries — but the Dolphins are at Hard Rock Stadium, where they have a real home-field advantage.

It’s easy to downgrade the Dolphins after their 56-19 loss last week to the Ravens. And their 1-4 record against playoff teams this year makes them look fraudulent.

But this is a natural buy-low spot: In the lookahead market last week, they were -1.5 favorites, and now they’re FG dogs. That’s too much of an adjustment.

And their four losses against playoff teams were all on the road, whereas two weeks ago they beat the Cowboys in Miami, where QB Tua Tagovailoa is 18-7 ATS (37.6% ROI).

Since 2003, underdogs off a loss of at least 28 points are 141-106-8 ATS (10.3% ROI). Off a loss of at least 35 points … 59-29-5 ATS (28.0% ROI).

Given their injuries, the Dolphins should probably be dogs, but +3 is just too much.

• Projection: +1.5
• Original Bet: +3 (-110)
• Cutoff: +2.5, to include in a teaser

You can tail Miami on DraftKings, where you can get up to $1,000 in DK Dollars when you sign up below and place your first bet of just $5 or more:

Week 18 Games That Have My Attention

Colts +1 vs. Texans

My projections lean slightly to the Colts at this number, and if they get to +1.5 I’ll be tempted to include them in teasers — but I wish I had jumped on the Texans when they were underdogs.

Browns +6 at Bengals

I like the Browns in what’s likely to be a backup-vs.-backup QB matchup, but I’m waiting to see if this number continues to move toward the Bengals. We might get a +7?

Patriots -2 vs. Jets

I think this should be -3 … but I’m also tempted to tease the Jets from +2 to +8 given how closely these teams are matched and especially given the low total (30.5). I think the Patriots should be FG favorites, but I doubt either team will win by more than a TD.

Titans +5.5 vs. Jaguars

I doubt that QB Will Levis (foot) plays, but I think there’s a chance the Titans could start Malik Willis in order to evaluate him. If we see Ryan Tannehill, though, then I’ll be tempted by the Titans, who are 8-4-1 ATS (25.6% ROI) as home underdogs of at least +3 points under HC Mike Vrabel. 

Chiefs +3 at Chargers

Blaine Gabbert > Easton Stick.

49ers -3.5 vs. Rams

I doubt the Rams will play for postseason seeding this week. (They didn’t in Week 17 of 2017.) And HC Sean McVay regularly rests his starters during the meaningless games of the preseason. But I could see the 49ers giving some of their starters playing time in order to ward off postseason rust.

Bears +3 at Packers

Given all the injuries they have, the Packers (in my opinion) don’t warrant a full FG, even at home.

Abbreviations

• Against the Spread (ATS)
• Return on Investment (ROI)
• Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
• Expected Points Added (EPA)
• Success Rate (SR)
• Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)

Previous Best Bets Pieces

My previous best bets pieces can be found on my author page.