Freedman's Best Bets. Top Picks Against The Spread For NFL Week 9.

Last week I had my best betting performance of the season, thanks primarily to props. I still need to get better on sides, totals and moneylines, but I’m now positive overall in our free Fantasy Life bet tracker.

Plus, we just got the first snow of the season last night, I had zero trick-or-treaters yesterday because I don’t live on a major road and the Rangers are one win away from claiming their first World Series title.

All sorts of victories as I type this sentence early in the morning of Nov. 1.

I’m far too much of a pessimistic realist to expect the Rangers to finish the job. I still have scars from 2011. The snow will melt and make my dog’s paws a wet mess whenever I take him out. And now I have bags of candy just sitting around the house while I’m in the middle of a “no dessert for all of the NFL regular season” bet.

This temporary feeling of triumph will fade.

But it’s nice to take a moment now and then to recognize and appreciate the enjoyable parts of the journey.

Right now, life is good.

Now let’s go lose some money.

Reminder: Here’s what you’re getting with this piece.

1. My projected spreads for each game (as of Wednesday morning).
2. My QB value chart (as of Wednesday morning).
3. A list of my favorite spread bets for the week (as of writing).
4. Brief notes on my favorite bets (no more than a few short paragraphs on each bet).
5. Even briefer notes (hopefully) on other games that have my eye (for whatever reason).
6. A few general thoughts on candidates for picks contests.

Week 8 Record

• Best Bets: 2-1 ATS (+0.78 units)
• DraftKings Contest Picks: 3-2

Year-to-Date Record

• Best Bets: 11-13 ATS (-3.17 units)
• DraftKings Contest Picks: 24-16

Freedman’s Week 9 Projections Against the Spread

I have two projection models. The first is my personal one. It’s the full Freedman: 100% me. Unadulterated. It’s probably too aggressive. 

The second model is my “official” one, which blends my personal projections with other inputs. It’s more measured and presentable — and that’s the model I’m using to create these “official” spread projections for Week 9, ordered according to kickoff time.

Projections and consensus odds as of Wed. 11/1 at 5:45 am ET. “Edge” is how many points of value I see for the listed team. A positive edge is good. A negative edge is bad.

Freedman’s Week 9 QB Value Chart

Earlier this week I posted an article on the ATS value of some of the more unproven backup QBs who might see playing time this week.

I’ve updated my QB value chart since then based on full data from Week 8.

These valuations directly compare the ATS value of the starter to his backup. In creating this chart, I’ve relied on the work of Ben Fawkes and Robby Greer.

A few notable items.

• Next week I’ll include Joshua Dobbs, who was just traded to the Vikings, but this week I want to highlight the dropoff from Kirk Cousins (Achilles, IR) to rookie fifth-rounder Jaren Hall, especially since Hall is expected to start this week.
• For the Cardinals, the dropoff from Kyler Murray (knee) to Dobbs (-3.1) is not nearly as great as the dropoff from Murray to rookie fifth-rounder Clayton Tune (-5.9).
• I have tightened the difference between Ryan Tannehill (ankle) and second-rookie Will Levis (-1.1) — but I still might have too big of a gap. I will continue to monitor and be quick to adjust.

Freedman’s Favorite Week 9 Bets

Here are my favorite bets currently. For all the bets I’ve made for the week, check out our 100% FREE bet tracker.

• Seahawks +6 at Ravens (-110, DraftKings)
• Cowboys +3 at Eagles (-110, BetMGM)
• Jets +3 vs. Chargers (-105, FanDuel)

Abbreviations: Check out the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use. (I don’t want to clutter up the intro by listing them all here.)

Seahawks +6 at Ravens (-110, DraftKings)

This number feels disrespectful.

Offensively, the Seahawks are No. 8 in EPA (0.039, per RBs Don’t Matter). The Ravens are No. 9 (0.035).

Defensively, the Ravens are No. 2 in EPA (-0.159). The Seahawks are No. 10 (-0.060) — but they jump up to No. 3 (-0.121) if we remove Week 1, when difference-making first-round rookie CB Devon Witherspoon was out with a hamstring injury. Plus, the Seahawks defense could be even better now with the addition of DT Leonard Williams via trade.

The Ravens should be favored, but the gap between these teams is not large.

The Seahawks are traveling east for an early game, but evidently septuagenarian HC Pete Carroll is an early riser: He’s 17-10-3 ATS (21.5% ROI, per Action Network) on the road in the 1 pm ET time slot. 

And road underdogs are 21-12 ATS (23.0% ROI) against Ravens QB Lamar Jackson. 

• Original Bet: +6 (-110)
• Projection: +4.4
• Cutoff: +6 (-125)

You can tail the Seahawks on DraftKings, where you can get $200 in bonus bets simply by placing an initial bet of $5 or more when you sign up below!

Cowboys +3 at Eagles (-110, BetMGM)

I have these teams power rated within a quarter point of each other. There’s very little that separates them.

The HC/QB combination of Nick Sirianni and Jalen Hurts has been great at home, going 13-6-1 ATS (29.7% ROI) — but Hurts (knee) is hobbled with an injury, and that showed up in his rushing output last week, when he had season-low marks with a 14% designed rush rate and 2% scramble rate (per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report).

If Hurts is limited as a runner, that will impact the overall efficiency of the Eagles offense.

Oct 29, 2023; Arlington, Texas, USA; Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) warms up before the game against the Los Angeles Rams at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

For the Cowboys, the HC/QB combination of Mike McCarthy and Dak Prescott is 3-0 ATS (90.5% ROI) against Sirianni’s Eagles and has covered by average of 12.7 points.

And Prescott is 25-10 ATS (39.4% ROI) in division, and I think that makes sense: As a cerebral QB who does best within structure and through repetition, Prescott could be expected to play best against the teams with which he’s most familiar.

• Original Bet: +3 (-110)
• Projection: +1.8
• Cutoff: +3 (-125)

You can tail the Cowboys on BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win when you sign up with code FANTASYLIFE below!

Jets +3 vs. Chargers (-105, FanDuel)

Note: I have not bet Jets +3 yet. I like the spread fine at that number and would be satisfied with betting it at +3 if it’s still there on Monday — but I’m waiting to see if it hits +3.5 first, given that Chargers -3 is already juiced up to -112 at DraftKings and -115 at FanDuel.

I don’t have a lot to say about this matchup. It’s ugly, and this line opened at +1.5 and has moved against the Jets — so I could very well be on the wrong side.

QB Zach Wilson is not good. But he has at least been good enough in the aftermath of his disastrous rookie campaign to allow the Jets to stay competitive.

• Zach Wilson (2021): -0.029 EPA + CPOE | 5-8 ATS (-26.2% ROI)
• Zach Wilson (2022-23): -0.003 EPA + CPOE | 8-6-1 ATS (8.5% ROI)

The Chargers are No. 30 in defensive dropback SR (49.8%). This could actually be a game in which Wilson is not a notable liability.

And the Jets defense is good enough to challenge anyone.

Three points feels like a lot for a good but not great finesse team coming off a big primetime home win to lay on the road against a physical team that has already upset two of the league’s best teams this year — especially when the favorite has a propensity to Charger.

• Projection: +2.3
• Cutoff: +3 (-120)

You can tail the Jets on FanDuel, where you can get $200 in bonus bets by placing an initial $5 bet when you create a new account below!

Week 9 Games That Have My Attention

Steelers -2.5 vs. Titans

I wouldn’t blame anyone for teasing the Titans up to +8.5, but I prefer the Steelers. HC Mike Tomlin is 53-39 ATS (13.1% ROI) off a loss in the regular season. Short rest normally benefits the favorites, and Titans QB Will Levis could be challenged preparing for his second NFL start on short rest.

Dolphins +2.5 vs. Chiefs (in Germany)

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes is 19-6-1 ATS (45.8% ROI) as an underdog or favorite of no more than a field goal — but I can’t help but tease the Dolphins to +8.5 in this spot. The Chiefs are No. 31 in defensive rush EPA (0.016), and I doubt they have the speed in their secondary to hang with WRs Tyreek Hill (#RevengeGame) and Jaylen Waddle.

Vikings +4.5 at Falcons

I haven’t bet this, and I probably won’t, because my projection is close to the market — but who are the Falcons to be favored by more than a field goal against anyone? Road teams are 14-6 ATS (33.4% ROI) against HC Arthur Smith.

Saints -7.5 vs. Bears

My projections point to the Saints, who are attractive teaser candidates down to -1.5. But I haven’t bet them yet because I’m waiting for more news on Bears QB Justin Fields (thumb). Plus, Saints QB Derek Carr is 18-34-2 ATS (-31.4% ROI) as a favorite; HC Dennis Allen, 5-13-1 ATS (-44.0% ROI). Not great.

Cardinals +8 at Browns

I bet this at +8.5 in the lookahead market when QB Joshua Dobbs was still on the team. I like this bet a lot less with the prospect of rookie QB Clayton Tune starting. I still see value on the Cardinals here — because who is P.J. Walker to be a favorite of more than a touchdown? — but the projection is much less certain given the unknown that is Tune. And it’s worth noting that the Browns are teasable down to +2 in this spot.

Buccaneers +2.5 at Texans

I will probably bet this if it gets to +3. If it doesn’t, I’ll consider teasing the Buccaneers up to +8.5.

Patriots -3.5 vs. Commanders

The time to bet this was when it was -2.5 or -3, but I could see this number going even further given that the Commanders just traded EDGEs Montez Sweat and Chase Young.

Rams +3 at Packers

I’m projecting this game as if there’s a 75% chance that Rams QB Matthew Stafford is out, and I think the market is similarly positioned. If he’s declared out, this number could move to the Packers past -3. If he plays, this could move toward a pick’em. In the lookahead market, the Rams were -1.5 favorites.

Panthers +2.5 vs. Colts

I will probably bet this if it gets to +3. If it doesn’t, I’ll consider teasing the Panthers up to +8.5.

Bills +2.5 at Bengals

As a spread bet, this was obviously much more attractive when it was +3, but I still like it at +2.5 and have already teased it up to +8.5. In the preseason market, the Bills were only +1 underdogs, and the Bills were -1.5 favorites just last week in the lookahead market. QB Josh Allen is 10-3-2 ATS (42.1% ROI) in the regular season as a road underdog.

Freedman’s Week 9 Contest Picks

Various sportsbooks (such as the SuperBook, Circa and DraftKings) run season-long contests in which participants pick five games each week, and whoever has the most ATS victories at the end of the season wins.

Based on the current consensus odds and my projections, here are a few general thoughts on the DraftKings contest.

Note: Some of my thoughts will probably change based on line movement, news and additional research.

• I expect the longer underdogs (Bears, Cardinals) to have minimal exposure in the contest.
• I imagine that all the teams in the Chiefs-Dolphins, Eagles-Cowboys and Bengals-Bills games will be popular selections, given how anticipated those matchups are.
• I anticipate that several short favorites (Steelers, Texans, Colts, Raiders) will have low pick rates.

Abbreviations

• Against the Spread (ATS)
• Return on Investment (ROI)
• Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
• Expected Points Added (EPA)
• Success Rate (SR)
• Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)

Previous Best Bets Pieces

My previous best bets pieces can be found on my author page.