Last week was a good one. I went 6-1 (+4.83 units) on spreads, total and moneylines. My only loss was Bills-Steelers under 42.5, which was the lock of the century and one of the best bets I’ve made all year … until the game was postponed a day because of weather.

Oh well.

Since Thanksgiving, I’ve seen the board especially well with spreads. Over the past eight weeks, I’m 32-16-1 ATS (+13.1 units) with no week below .500.

It has been an up-and-down season, but hopefully, we’re able to finish strong.

Let’s get into it.

For all the bets I’ve made this week, check out our 100% FREE bet tracker.

Abbreviations: Check out the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use. (I don’t want to clutter up the intro by listing them here.)

Projections and consensus odds as of 8 a.m. ET Wednesday, Jan. 18.

Texans at Ravens

  • Market: Ravens -9 | 43.5 O/U | ML: Texans +320, Ravens -410
  • Projections: Ravens -8.8 | 42.4 O/U | Texans +359.6, Ravens -359.6 

Texans at Ravens: Side Analysis

In the postseason, going back to 2003, underdogs are 26-13-1 ATS (28.4% ROI, per Action Network) in the Divisional Round against No. 1 seeds.

This trend makes sense to me.

The No. 1 seeds are usually the best teams in the league. It wouldn’t be a surprise for their numbers to be a little inflated — especially in the playoffs, when the market sees an influx of casual bettors, who tend to gravitate to ATS favorites.

On top of that, the No. 1 seeds are at home and coming off a bye. It’s easy for the market to inflate the spread for a home favorite with rest — and often the No. 1 seeds have multiple weeks of rest because their playoff position is locked in by the season’s final week, which means that there’s the enhanced possibility of rust against an upstart low-seeded underdog that is coming off a playoff victory and probably close to top form.

You put all of that together, and it’s not a surprise that — on average — the ATS margin for favored No. 1 seeds in the Divisional Round has been -2.29.

At the same time, these underdogs are a less profitable 13-27 ML (12.9% ROI), so if you like the dog in this scenario it has been better to invest via the spread.

Why?

My theory: While casual bettors tend to prefer ATS favorites, they are also drawn to ML underdogs, which means that there’s less value on the ML relative to the spread than we ordinarily might see.

All of which brings me to this point: I’d like to bet on the Texans ATS. My projections lean slightly to them — and when this line was sitting at +9.5 I was hoping to get them at +10, but the line has moved down.

As great as Ravens QB Lamar Jackson is … Texans QB C.J. Stroud might — MIGHT — be the superior player. 

CJ Stroud

Jan 13, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) in a 2024 AFC wild card game against the Cleveland Browns at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

On the year, he was No. 2 in AY/A (8.7), while Jackson was No. 3 (8.4). After returning from injury, Stroud had a 9.3 AY/A in two must-win Weeks 17-18 games, and then last week he had 274 yards and three TDs passing with an outrageous 15.9 AY/A.

Jackson is the presumptive MVP. I’m not saying that he’s bad. But Stroud is almost certainly the Offensive Rookie of the Year, and he has played like a polished franchise QB this season, especially recently.

Jackson is probably the better player, but it’s not a lock, and it’s not by much — and he’s laying more than a TD in a situation that tends to see inflated favorites.

On top of that, as a home favorite Jackson is 15-23 ATS (-23.2% ROI). Historically, this has been the exact spot in which it has been profitable to fade him.

And the sample is small, but it’s at least notable that Jackson hasn’t had postseason success.

  • Postseason ATS: 1-3 | -50.0% ROI | -10.8 margin
  • Postseason ML: 1-3 | -60.9% ROI | -7.3 margin

I’d theoretically like to fade Jackson and the Ravens in this spot, but I’d like to do it at the right number … and I don’t think I’m going to get it.

Texans at Ravens: Total Analysis

Right now, the Saturday forecast at MT&T Stadium in Baltimore calls for a high temperature of 27 degrees and wind of 14 mph.

Oh, baby.

Since 2003, outdoor unders in the postseason are 100-76-4 (9.8% ROI).

In these games, wind is likely the driving factor. In playoff games with winds of at least 10 mph, the under is 31-16-2 (25.9% ROI).

And when it’s windy (10+ mph) and freezing (temperature no higher than 32 degrees), the postseason under is 16-5-1 (45.4% ROI).

This line opened at 46, where I bet the under.

At the current number of 43.5, I think the under is bettable.

Not even counting his fantastic wild card performance at home, Stroud this year has been far less efficient outdoors than in a covered stadium.

  • Outdoors: 221.8 yards per game | 7.0 AY/A
  • Indoors: 299.9 yards per game | 9.5 AY/A

In Stroud’s 16 starts, the Texans are 10-6 (19.2% ROI) to the under.

Both teams can be inclined to conservative offensive playcalling, and that’s likely to be accentuated all the more by the weather.

Texans at Ravens: Bets

  • Logged Bet: Under 46, still like under 43.5
  • Potential Bet: Texans +10 (please gods of gambling), if not then probably nothing

You can tail the under 43.5 at BetMGM, where you can get $158 in bonus bets when you sign up below and place your first bet of just $5 or more with promo code FANTASYLIFE:

Packers at 49ers

  • Market: 49ers -9.5 | 50.5 O/U | ML: Packers +350, 49ers -450
  • Projections: 49ers -9.6 | 51.5 O/U | Packers +399.3, 49ers -399.3

Packers at 49ers: Side Analysis

My projection is in line with the market, although I did bet Packers +10 on Sunday.

Let’s start with the negatives: The Packers are in a “widowmaker” scenario. They’re on short rest (six days) facing a team off a bye. This will be their fourth road game in five weeks. And they’re traveling west two time zones for an evening game.

The situational spot sucks.

On top of that, their defense is vulnerable, ranking No. 31 in dropback SR (48.8%, per RBs Don’t Matter). 

It’s easy to belittle 49ers QB Brock Purdy as a “system QB” — but within the 49ers system this year he is No. 1 in AY/A (9.9), composite EPA + CPOE (0.204) and QBR (72.7, per ESPN).

With Purdy, 49ers HC Kyle Shanahan should be able to exploit the Packers defense.

But it’s not as if the Packers lucked into a road win over the Cowboys, whom they dominated 48-32 last week. The Packers were the better team from the first snap to the last. 

Since Week 11, they’re No. 4 in offensive EPA (0.093), and QB Jordan Love in nine games has 2,422 yards and 18 TDs passing to just one INT with 64 yards and two TDs rushing.

Jordan Love

Jan 14, 2024; Arlington, Texas, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love (10) reacts after a touchdown against the Dallas Cowboys in the first quarter for the 2024 NFC wild card game at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Over the second half of the season, Love has more than lived up to the first-round draft capital the Packers invested in him in 2020, and their long-term succession planning has worked out better than they could’ve possibly hoped for.

As underappreciated as Purdy is — as good as he is within Shanahan’s scheme — Love is probably the better QB.

I don’t like the Packers at +9.5, but if you let me bet on the better QB as a +10 dog when he’s facing the No. 1 seed in the Divisional Round, I’ll gladly take that bet.

It’s probably worth noting that in the postseason Shanahan has crushed as a home favorite.

  • Postseason ATS: 4-0 | 92.7% ROI | +7.75 margin
  • Postseason ML: 4-0 | 32.2% ROI | +14.75 margin

And in the playoffs he’s 2-0 ATS (94.0% ROI) and 2-0 ML (118.2% ROI) against Packers HC Matt LaFleur, who worked under Shanahan as an assistant (2008-09) and then QBs coach (2010-13, 2015-16) for eight years.

But +10 was too much.

Packers at 49ers: Total Analysis

My projection shows a point of value to the over, but I probably won’t bet it.

Both of these teams can score points — that why my projection likes the over — but Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara is forecast for an 83% chance of rain on Saturday with a borderline nontrivial amount of wind (seven mph), and I’d rather stay away from an over with potentially negative weather, especially since I’m already invested in the dog. 

Packers at 49ers: Bets

  • Logged Bet: Packers +10

Buccaneers at Lions

  • Market: Lions -6.5 | 48.5 O/U | ML: Buccaneers +235, Lions -290
  • Projections: Lions -6.3 | 47.9 O/U | Buccaneers +249.7, Lions -249.7

Buccaneers at Lions: Side Analysis

In the early market, a +7 briefly appeared, and I snap-bet it. The market is now generally at +6.5, although +6 is still available at a few books, and I think that’s the right range.

This is a good spot for Lions QB Jared Goff. For his career indoors, he’s 35-17 ATS (29.3% ROI), and at home with the Lions, he’s 18-8 ATS (32.8% ROI).

On top of that, the Lions have a one-day rest advantage, and they’re playing their third game in a row at home.

But I think the Bucs can have some success against the Lions.

Goff this year has been especially susceptible to pressure (per PFF).

  • Kept Clean (64.6% DB): 93.2 pass grade
  • Under Pressure (35.4% DB): 52.7 pass grade
  • Not Blitzed (62.1% DB): 90.2 pass grade
  • When Blitzed (37.9% DB): 69.0 pass grade

Under defensive HC Todd Bowles, the Buccaneers defense is No. 3 in blitz rate (40.1%). If the Bucs are able to convert their blitzes into pressure, they could force Goff into multiple mistakes.

Vita Vea

Jan 15, 2024; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers defensive tackle Vita Vea (50) reacts after a play against the Philadelphia Eagles during the second half of a 2024 NFC wild card game at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

Additionally, the Lions like to rely on the running game. They’re No. 25 in early-down pass frequency (49.9%), and they have a -4% pass frequency over expected. But the Bucs defense is No. 5 in rush EPA (-0.168).

If the Lions try unsuccessfully to establish the run, they might consistently find themselves in third-and-long scenarios that result in stalled drives.

And the Bucs offense might be able to pass the ball against a Lions defense that is No. 27 in dropback EPA (0.100).

QB Baker Mayfield looked great last week with 337 yards and three TDs passing. He’s streaky, but he’s more than capable of exploiting a subpar defense when he’s on his game.

And Mayfield as a road dog is 20-13 ATS (17.1% ROI).

If Bucs +7 reappears in the market, I think that will be investable.

Buccaneers at Lions: Total Analysis

In the postseason, the over in games played in a covered stadium is 33-18 (27.7% ROI).

And in games between non-divisional opponents, the indoor over is an improved 31-14 (35.8% ROI).

The Lions are 11-7 (16.7% ROI) to the over, and indoors they’re 9-4 (32.0% ROI) to the over.

But the Bucs are 12-6 (27.4% ROI) to the under, and if I think the Bucs can cover and have some defensive success against the Lions offense, then I should probably pass altogether on the total.

My projection leans to the under.

Buccaneers at Lions: Bets

  • Logged Bet: Buccaneers +7

Chiefs at Bills

  • Market: Bills -2.5 | 45.5 O/U | ML: Chiefs +120, Bills -145
  • Projections: Bils -1.5 | 43.4 O/U | Chiefs +120.3, Bills -120.3

Chiefs at Bills: Side Analysis

This number has fluctuated between a juiced -2.5 and juiced +3 for the past two days, but a flat +3 popped up this morning, and I bet it.

I expect that at some point we’ll see a market-wide +3, which then will get bet back to +2.5, and from that point on the true number will probably be +2.75.

For people who like the Chiefs — and I like the Chiefs — I think the optimal strategy is to wait for a flat +3. If that doesn’t appear, then I’d be fine with betting on the Chiefs via a juiced +3, the ML or maybe in a teaser (up to +8.5) if you have access to a sportsbook that allows you to bet with open legs.

I know that this is QB Patrick Mahomes first-ever road game in the playoffs, but I’m not too concerned about that.

For his career, Mahomes has offered significantly more value away from Arrowhead Stadium than at home.

  • Home: 28-29-1 ATS (-4.5% ROI) | 45-13 ML (0.8% ROI)
  • Road/Neutral: 30-21-2 (14.0% ROI) | 41-12 ML (23.6% ROI)

And his performance as an underdog is nearly legendary.

  • ATS Underdog: 8-1-1 | 67.2% ROI | +7.25 margin
  • ML Underdog: 7-3 | 71.4 % ROI | +4.2 margin

As a dog away from Arrowhead, he’s 8-0-1 ATS (85.8% ROI) and 7-2 ML (90.4% ROI).

In the words of Frank Costanza, “This is the signal, Jerry.”

Patrick Mahomes

Jan 13, 2024; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) throws against the Miami Dolphins during the first half of the 2024 AFC wild card game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

A few factors benefit the Chiefs in this spot.

First is the rest disparity. Because Bills-Steelers was pushed back a day, the Bills have a rest deficit (six days) while the Chiefs have a surplus (eight days) — and that’s on top of the extra rest the Chiefs got by sitting key players in Week 18. The Chiefs should be significantly fresher in this game, especially because …

Secondly, the Bills are banged up. On offense, they could be without their top field-stretcher in WR Gabe Davis (knee), who missed last week.

But that’s absolutely nothing compared to the defensive injuries, which are catastrophically localized in the back seven. There’s a chance they could be without five current starters and two backups — and that’s on top of the fact that they’ve been without No. 1 LB Matt Milano (leg, IR) and No. 1 CB Tre’Davious White (Achilles, IR) for months.

LB Tyrel Dodson (shoulder) was out last week, and LBs Terrel Bernard (ankle) and Baylon Spector (back) both left with injury. Even if just one of them is out, the Bills could be clearly weaker against the run and also the pass, given that No. 1 WR Rashee Rice runs most of his routes from the slot and in the middle of the field and TE Travis Kelce matches up with LBs not infrequently.

And then there are the injuries in the secondary. Last week, the Bills were without new No. 1 CB Rasul Douglas (knee) and No. 3 S Taylor Rapp (calf), and then they lost perimeter CB Christian Benford (knee) and slot CB TAron Johnson (head). There’s a chance the Bills could be without all three starting corners.

The Bills will likely get some of these players back for the divisional round, but they probably won’t be at full health, and that makes them especially vulnerable when playing alongside backups.

Finally, this will be the seventh game between the Chiefs and Bills since 2020. They know each other extremely well. They’re not quite as acquainted as division rivals are with each other, but they’re not far off, and that probably benefits the underdog Chiefs: Familiarity tends to dull the favorite’s edge.

The Bills are the better team. I have them power rated +1.5 points higher than the Chiefs, whom they beat 20-17 in Kansas City in Week 14 to kick off their six-game winning streak.

But they’re on short rest, they’re injured, they’re playing a team that knows them well, and they’re facing a QB who defies expectations as a road dog.

If you don’t want to bet the Chiefs, that’s fine, but there’s no way I’m backing the Bills in this negative spot.

Chiefs at Bills: Total Analysis

I bet the under at 46.5 and still like it at 45.5. It’s an outdoor under in Buffalo. What could go wrong???

The Chiefs have been the league’s most extreme under team all year because of their underwhelming offense and overperforming defense (-0.085 EPA, No. 4).

  • Under: 13-5
  • ROI: 38.1%
  • Margin: +7.0   

Chiefs games haven’t just gone under this year. On average, they’ve gone under by a full TD.

And they’ve been even more of an under team in outdoor games.

  • Under: 11-4
  • ROI: 40.1%
  • Margin: +7.7   

When the Chiefs hosted the Bills in Week 14, the total was 49, and the final score (37) didn’t even come close, and that makes sense given these two offenses.

The Chiefs have been stuck in neutral for much of the season, and since Week 11, when the Bills dismissed OC Ken Dorsey and promoted QBs coach Joe Brady to playcaller, they have been a less pass-happy team.

  • Weeks 1-10: 58.3% early-down pass rate | 5% pass frequency over expected
  • Since Week 11: 53.6% early-down pass rate | -3% pass frequency over expected

A shootout is possible, but a 24-21 outcome seems likelier. 

Chiefs at Bills: Bets

  • Logged Bets: Chiefs +3 (would be juiced or ML if needed), Under 46.5 (still like at 45.5)

You can tail the under 45.5 at bet365, where you can get $365 in bonus bets when you sign up below and place your first bet of just $1 or more:

Abbreviations

  • Against the Spread (ATS)
  • Return on Investment (ROI)
  • Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
  • Expected Points Added (EPA)
  • Success Rate (SR)
  • Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
  • Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)

Previous Best Bets Pieces

My previous best bets pieces can be found on my author page.

Freedman's Best Bets