Super Wild Card Weekend might be my favorite slate of games all year.

It has everything.

Weather. High-flying offenses indoors. #RevengeGames. Young, emerging QBs making their postseason debuts. Grizzled veteran QBs elevating their play for the games that matter most. The league’s best teams … and then one or two teams that absolutely don’t belong in the playoffs.

What a week.

Let’s get into it.

For all the bets I’ve made this week, check out our 100% FREE bet tracker.

Abbreviations: Check out the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use. (I don’t want to clutter up the intro by listing them all here.)

Projections and consensus odds as of 7:15 a.m. ET Wednesday, Jan. 10.

Browns @ Texans

  • Market: Browns -2.5 | 44.5 O/U | ML: Browns -145, Texans +120
  • Projections: Browns -1.4 | 42.6 O/U | Browns -118.5, Texans +118.5 

Browns at Texans: Side Analysis

As I noted in the Monday Betting Life Newsletter, QBs making their first playoff starts have historically been profitable fade candidates.  

This could be a spot where Texans QB C.J. Stroud struggles against one of the league’s best defenses — and he’s going against Browns QB Joe Flacco, who is a legendary 11-4 ATS (43.0% ROI) in the postseason and 10-3 ATS (49.6% ROI, per Action Network) in the playoffs when not at home. 

Then again, Stroud hasn’t seemed too small for any NFL moment he has faced so far, and the Browns defense hasn’t been nearly as good on the road as at home.

  • Browns on Road: 29.6 points allowed per game | 1.91 points allowed per drive
  • Browns at Home: 13.9 points allowed per game | 1.7 points allowed per drive

My projections point to the Texans. 

Although the Browns rested many of their key players last week, they’re not aided by the fact that this is their second straight road game and they’re playing with one less day of rest relative to the Texans.

I’m holding out and hoping for a +3, but if the market holds steady or slightly moves against them, I’ll likely bet them as a teaser leg or on the ML.

Browns at Texans: Total Analysis

I’m showing significant value on the under — but I think there’s a decent chance I’m wrong.

The Texans are 11-6 (23.4% ROI) to the under. But their margin — the extent to which their games have leaned to the under across the course of the season — is -0.06 points. Despite their strong under record, the Texans on average have been a near-neutral team.

And the Browns have been a strong over team.

  • Over: 10-6-1
  • ROI: 18.5%
  • Margin: +6.26 

On the road, they’re 8-0 (91.6%, +15.1) to the over. And with Flacco they’re 4-1 (52.7% ROI, +15.3) to the over.

My projections, which are based on season-long numbers, don’t know that Browns games shoot out on the road or with Flacco.

Plus, I don’t think I want to bet the under on an indoor game. In the postseason, the over in games played in a covered stadium is 31-17 (27.9% ROI).

And in games between non-divisional opponents, the indoor over is an improved 29-13 (36.6% ROI).

So right now I don’t think I’m unlikely to bet the under, despite my projection.

Browns at Texans: Bets

  • Potential Bet: Texans +3, if not then Texans +8.5 in teaser or Texans ML

Dolphins @ Chiefs

  • Market: Chiefs -4 | 44 O/U | ML: Dolphins +170, Chiefs -205
  • Projections: Chiefs -4 | 43.9 O/U | Dolphins +186.5, Chiefs -186.5

Dolphins at Chiefs: Side Analysis

My projection is right in line with the market.

I bet Chiefs -3 as fast as I could on Sunday when this line was posted, and it quickly moved to -3.5 and has now settled at -4 at most sportsbooks.

This is just a massively negative spot for the Dolphins at Arrowhead Stadium, where the forecast calls for a temperature near zero degrees and wind approaching double digits. Those are terrible circumstances for QB Tua Tagovailoa to make his first postseason start, especially against Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes, who is 9-5 ATS (24.0% ROI) in the playoffs.

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Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) in introduced prior a Week 17 NFL football game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday, Dec. 31, 2023, at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Mo.

On top of that, the Dolphins are significantly injured.

On defense, they’re without EDGEs Jaelan Phillips (Achilles, IR), Bradley Chubb (knee, IR), Andrew Van Ginkel (foot, IR) and Cameron Goode (knee, IR) and LB Jerome Baker (wrist) — and maybe CB Xavien Howard (foot), who missed last week and has been dealing injury for the past month.  

On offense, they could be without WR Jaylen Waddle (ankle) and RB Raheem Mostert (knee, ankle), both of whom missed Weeks 17-18. 

It doesn’t help Howard, Waddle and Mostert that this game is on Saturday, giving them one less day to get healthy.

And the Chiefs should be relatively fresh given that many of their key players were able to rest in Week 18.

Dolphins at Chiefs: Total Analysis

I’m in line with the current market, but I bet under 46.5 when this line opened.

The Chiefs have been the league’s most extreme under team all year because of their underwhelming offense and overperforming defense (-0.076 EPA, No. 6, per RBs Don’t Matter).

  • Under: 12-5
  • ROI: 35.0%
  • Margin: +6.79   

Chiefs games haven’t just gone under this year. On average, they’ve gone under by almost a full TD.

And at Arrowhead Stadium the Chiefs under is 8-1 (70.1% ROI, +8.5).

Dolphins at Chiefs: Bets

  • Logged Bets: Chiefs -3, Under 46.5

Steelers @ Bills

  • Market: Bills -10 | 36.5 O/U | ML: Steelers +400, Bills -550
  • Projections: Bills -9.4 | 35.8 O/U | Steelers +397.8, Bills -397.8

Steelers at Bills: Side Analysis

I snap bet Bills -9.5 on Sunday before I had finished running my projections under the assumption that 1) my projection would be relatively close to market and 2) this number would move up to -10.

I was right on both counts — but I’m not sure I’d make this bet again if given the option.

In a game with an incredibly low total, -9.5 is such a big number to cover. The Bills could dominate the Steelers for much of this game and still only win by seven.

Still … the Steelers are a borderline playoff team at best. They’re the only postseason team with a negative point differential (-20), and they’re likely to be without their top overall player in EDGE T.J. Watt (knee).

QB Mason Rudolph has looked good in his limited action this year (3-0 ML & ATS, 10.5 AY/A). I now have him as a +1.7 upgrade over the “injured”/benched Kenny Pickett (per our Fantasy Life QB ATS Value Chart). But that’s based on a small sample. Rudolph’s career numbers are still mediocre (6.5 AY/A), he opened the year as the No. 3 QB, and he’s making his first postseason start.

As great as Steelers HC Mike Tomlin has been throughout his career as an underdog, his voodoo magic has been confined to the regular season. In the postseason, his luck has traditionally run out.

  • Regular Season Underdog: 57-31-3 ATS (25.5% ROI) | 48-43 ML (34.3% ROI)
  • Postseason Underdog: 2-3-1 ATS (-14.0% ROI) | 1-5 ML (-62.3% ROI)

The Steelers have an extra day of rest relative to the Bills, but this will be their fourth away game in five weeks. I think their road weariness will catch up to them this week.

The Bills have been inconsistent all year, and it’s not hard to imagine them allowing the Steelers to make a game of this.

But at -9.5 I think this is Bills or nothing. At -10, it’s probably a pass.

Steelers at Bills: Total Analysis

Right now, the forecast in Buffalo on Sunday calls for a high temperature of 24 degrees and wind of 23 mph with a 96% chance of snow.

Oh, baby.

Since 2003, outdoor unders in the postseason are 98-75-4 (9.5% ROI).

In these games, wind is likely the driving factor. In playoff games with winds of at least 10 mph, the under is 30-16-2 (24.6% ROI).

And when it’s windy (10+ mph) and freezing (temperature no higher than 32 degrees), the postseason under is 15-5-1 (43.2% ROI).

This line opened at 43, I bet the under as quickly as I could at 42.5, and within less than a day it was at 36.5.

Even at the current number, I lean under.

Both teams are inclined toward conservative offensive playcalling anyway, and that’s likely to be accentuated all the more by the weather.

Steelers at Bills: Bets

  • Logged Bets: Bills -9.5, Under 42.5
  • Potential Bet: Under 36.5, for people who haven’t bet yet but want action on the game

Packers @ Cowboys

  • Market: Cowboys -7.5 | 50.5 O/U | ML: Packers +300, Cowboys -375
  • Projections: Cowboys -7.8 | 50.9 O/U | Packers +324.9, Cowboys -324.9

Packers at Cowboys: Side Analysis

I now have QBs Dak Prescott (+6.8) and Jordan Love (+6.4) as the league’s most valuable starting QBs relative to their backups.

In EPA per play this year, Prescott is No. 2 (0.245), and Love is No. 5 (0.156). Both guys are playing at career-best levels.

But this is Love’s postseason debut, and he’s a big dog on the road in Dallas, where Prescott is 14-7-1 ATS (28.3% ROI) with a spread of at least -7.

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Dec 30, 2023; Arlington, Texas, USA; Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Brandin Cooks (3) celebrates with Dallas Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb (88) after making a touchdown catch during the second half against the Detroit Lions at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

My projections slightly lean toward the Cowboys, but not enough to convince me to bet them at -7.5, especially given that HC Mike McCarthy (in a #RevengGame, by the way) has still exhibited a troubling propensity this year to mismanage the clock in end-of-game scenarios.

If this line gets to -7 (I doubt it will), then I’ll think about betting the Cowboys at that number. If the current market holds, I imagine I’ll tease the Cowboys down to -1.5, where I feel much better about an investment.

Packers at Cowboys: Total Analysis

I don’t have much to say about the total. Indoors, I’m naturally inclined to bet the over, and my projections point in that direction.

But do I really want to bet the over in a game with a QB making his first postseason start? Do I actually feel the need to bet the over in a game in which McCarthy could get tensely conservative with his playcalling against his former team?

No, I don’t.

Packers at Cowboys: Bets

  • Potential Bet: Cowboys -1.5 in teaser

Rams @ Lions

  • Market: Lions -3 | 51.5 O/U | ML: Rams +145, Lions -175
  • Projections: Lions -2.5 | 51.7 O/U | Rams +134.6, Lions -134.6

Rams at Lions: Side Analysis

This isn’t the best of travel spots for the Rams, who go east three time zones for their third consecutive game away, but that’s mitigated by the fact that they rested many of their main starters last week. (And they still won and improved to the No. 6 seed. The gods of gambling rewarded them for their strategic soundness.)

The Lions are at home for their second straight game — but they lost multiple pass catchers last week while playing for a win that ended up not improving their seeding at all. (The powers of pigskin punished them for their short-sightedness.)

I’ve been high on the Rams all year, and that’s not stopping now.

I like Lions HC Dan Campbell, who is a legendary 35-16 ATS (31.0% ROI) for his career and 18-7 ATS (38.1% ROI) at home.

But Rams HC Sean McVay is the superior coach, and given that he’s an underdog he might be able to hold his decision-making conservatism in check for this game.

As a road underdog, McVay is 16-10-2 ATS (18.2% ROI). As a road dog of at least +3, he’s 12-5-2 ATS (32.7% ROI).

Given their time together (2017-20), McVay probably knows Lions QB Jared Goff better than any other coach alive, and Rams QB Matthew Stafford is hardly a visitor at Ford Field, where he played 83 games with the 2009-20 Lions.

For a brief second, this number was Rams +5 at a sportsbook when it opened, and I asked myself, “Wait, what am I missing?” By the time I had finished looking around to see if there was any big injury news for the Rams I wasn’t aware of, the line had moved to +4.

By the time I got around to betting it, the line was +3.5. Whatever. I think it should be +2.5.

Rams at Lions: Total Analysis

In the “Early Lines” edition of the Betting Life Show, Matt LaMarca made a strong case for the over.

This year, Lions overs are 11-6 (23.6% ROI, +3.12). At home, the over is 6-2 (43.3% ROI, +5.13). They can put up a ton of points, and their defense is vulnerable.

As for the Rams, they’ve scored 26 points in every game (minus Week 18) since No. 1 RB Kyren Williams returned to action in Week 12 to revitalize the running attack. And their defense — though respectable with DT Aaron Donald — is average at best.

I don’t want to have multiple bets on this game, and I can envision a situation in which McVay — given his familiarity with Goff — is able to slow down the Lions offense.

But I lean over. 

Rams at Lions: Bets

  • Logged Bet: Rams +3.5, and I still like them at +3

You can tail the Rams +3.5 at BetMGM, where you can get $158 in bonus bets when you sign up and place your first bet of $5 or more below!

Eagles @ Buccaneers

  • Market: Eagles -3 | 43.5 O/U | ML: Eagles -160, Buccaneers +135
  • Projections: Eagles -0.6 | 44.3 O/U | Eagles -115.5, Buccaneers +115.5

Eagles at Buccaneers: Side Analysis

I haven’t made a bet yet on the Buccaneers, but I strongly lean in their direction. I’m waiting to see the injury reports and to allow the market to develop.

If the Eagles have positive injury news, this line might move to +3.5, where I’d likely bet it. If the market stays where it is, I’ll probably bet Buccaneers +3 or ML. If the market moves against the Buccaneers, I’ll almost certainly tease them up above the key number of +7.

The Buccaneers are an imperfect team. But they’re at home for their third game in four weeks, and they’re healthy.

Compare that to the Eagles, who are on the road, 0-6 ATS (100% ROI) since Week 13, and injured.

I expect QB Jalen Hurts (finger) to play, but he has been far from perfect (15 INTs in 17 games), and his home/road splits are notable, especially this year.

  • Home: 245.5 yards passing per game | 8.1 AY/A
  • Road: 210.4 yards passing per game | 5.6 AY/A

And the Eagles aren’t guaranteed to have WRs A.J. Brown (knee) and DeVonta Smith (ankle). If they play, they will likely be nowhere near 100%.

In the secondary, the Eagles might be without No. 1 CB Darius Slay (knee), FS Reed Blankenship (groin) and slot CB/S Sydney Brown (knee).

On top of all that, the Eagles defense has allowed 26.8 points per game since promoting senior assistant Matt Patricia to defensive playcaller in Week 15, and that’s despite facing Drew Lock, Tommy DeVito, TyRod Taylor and a Cardinals team incentivized to lose.

It would be ugly, but the Buccaneers have a shot to upset the Eagles.

Eagles at Buccaneers: Total Analysis

On the one hand, my projection points to the over, and there’s nothing like a Patricia-led defense to help Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield look like a hero.

On the other hand, this gut likes the under, and the market has moved in that direction since the line opened at 45.

This is a pass.

Eagles at Buccaneers: Bets

  • Potential Bet: Buccaneers +3.5, if not then Bucs +3, Bucs ML, or Bucs above +7 in teaser

Abbreviations

  • Against the Spread (ATS)
  • Return on Investment (ROI)
  • Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
  • Expected Points Added (EPA)
  • Success Rate (SR)
  • Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
  • Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)

Previous Best Bets Pieces

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