Freedman's Best Bets. Top Picks for NFL Week 2.
Introductions are for people who have time.
But you and I, degenerate sports bettors who pretend to be busy, we don’t have time.
So no introduction.
As a reminder, here’s what you should expect from this article each week.
- My projected spreads for each game (as of Wednesday morning).
- A list of my favorite spread bets for the week (as of writing).
- Some brief notes on my favorite bets (no more than a paragraph on each bet).
- Even briefer notes (hopefully) on other games that have my eye (for whatever reason).
- The five games I’m most thinking about using in picks contests (as of writing).
Week 1 Record
- Best Bets: 2-1 ATS (+0.76 units)
- DraftKings Contest Picks: 4-1
Week 2 Projections Against the Spread
I have two projection models. The first is my personal one. It’s the full Freedman: 100% me. Unadulterated. It’s probably too aggressive.
The second model is my “official” one, which blends my personal projections with other inputs. It’s more measured and presentable, and that’s the model I’m using to create these “official” spread projections for Week 2, ordered according to kickoff time.
| Teams | Location | Projection | Consensus | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | Away | 6.8 | 7 | 0.2 |
| PHI | Home | -6.8 | -7 | -0.2 |
| GB | Away | 0.2 | -1.5 | -1.7 |
| ATL | Home | -0.2 | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| LV | Away | 9.6 | 9 | -0.6 |
| BUF | Home | -9.6 | -9 | 0.6 |
| BAL | Away | 3.4 | 3.5 | 0.1 |
| CIN | Home | -3.4 | -3.5 | -0.1 |
| CHI | Away | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| TB | Home | -2 | -3 | -1 |
| KC | Away | -3.1 | -3 | 0.1 |
| JAX | Home | 3.1 | 3 | -0.1 |
| LAC | Away | -2.6 | -3 | -0.4 |
| TEN | Home | 2.6 | 3 | 0.4 |
| IND | Away | -1 | -1 | 0 |
| HOU | Home | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| SEA | Away | 5.5 | 5.5 | 0 |
| DET | Home | -5.5 | -5.5 | 0 |
| SF | Away | -6.7 | -8 | -1.3 |
| LAR | Home | 6.7 | 8 | 1.3 |
| NYG | Away | -4.2 | -5.5 | -1.3 |
| ARI | Home | 4.2 | 5.5 | 1.3 |
| NYJ | Away | 8.1 | 9.5 | 1.4 |
| DAL | Home | -8.1 | -9.5 | -1.4 |
| WAS | Away | 3.6 | 3.5 | -0.1 |
| DEN | Home | -3.6 | -3.5 | 0.1 |
| MIA | Away | -2.3 | -2.5 | -0.2 |
| NE | Home | 2.3 | 2.5 | 0.2 |
| NO | Away | -2.7 | -3 | -0.3 |
| CAR | Home | 2.7 | 3 | 0.3 |
| CLE | Away | -1.4 | -2.5 | -1.1 |
| PIT | Home | 1.4 | 2.5 | 1.1 |
Projections and consensus odds as of Wed. 9/13 at 8 am ET. “Edge” is how many points of value I see for the listed team. A positive edge is good. A negative edge is bad.
Freedman’s Favorite Week 2 Bets
Here are my favorites bets, which you can find (along with lots of other bets) in our 100% FREE bet tracker.
- Falcons +1 vs. Packers (-110, BetMGM)
- Bills -9 vs. Raiders (-110, DraftKings)
- Bears +3 at Buccaneers (-110, BetMGM)
Abbreviations:
- Against the spread (ATS)
- return on investment (ROI)
- expected points added (EPA)
- success rate (SR)
- completion percentage over expectation (CPOE)
- adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A)
- defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA)
Falcons +1 vs. Packers (-110, BetMGM)
The Falcons have one of the best running attacks in the league. Last year, they were Nos. 3, 4 & 5 in offensive rush DVOA (11.1%), EPA (0.004), and SR (45.1%), per FTN and RBs Don’t Matter. And they might be even better this year with the addition of RB Bijan Robinson.
Meanwhile, the Packers last year were No. 31 in defensive rush DVOA (10.1%), EPA (0.044), and SR (46.6%). This line feels like it’s giving the Packers too much credit for their Week 1 performance.
- Personal Projection: Falcons -2
- Official Projection: Falcons -0.2
- Cutoff: Pick’Em
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Bills -9 vs. Raiders (-110, DraftKings)
The Bills last year were No. 1 in overall team DVOA (38.9%). The delta between them and the Raiders is more than what’s reflected in this spread, which I think is an overreaction to the fact that the Raiders won in Week 1 and the Bills lost on Monday Night Football.
With rookie TE Dalton Kincaid, the Bills used two-TE personnel packages at a league-high 63.2% rate (per SumerSports), and the Raiders don’t have the linebackers or secondary (both bottom-four groups in our Fantasy Life Unit Rankings) to match up with the Bills in heavy sets, especially since the Raiders could be without S Tre’von Moehrig (thumb).
- Personal Projection: Bills -12.25
- Official Projection: Bills -9.6
- Cutoff: Bills -9.5
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Bears +3 at Buccaneers (-110, BetMGM)
I still have the Bears rated as +1.5 points better than the Buccaneers on a neutral field, so this number looks like an unjustified response to Week 1, when the Bears lost as favorites and the Buccaneers won as underdogs.
Over the past 20 years, Week 2 underdogs to lose as favorites in Week 1 are 32-21-2 ATS (16.5% ROI, per Action Network).
- Personal Projection: Bears +2.0
- Official Projection: Bears -0.25
- Cutoff: Bears +3
Week 2 Games That Have My Attention
Chiefs -3 at Jaguars
I bet this at -2.5 and still think it’s bettable there, especially with the return of DT Chris Jones -- in case the market happens to dip.
Titans +3 vs. Chargers
I haven’t bet this, but if it gets back to +3.5 I might.
I like the idea of RB Derrick Henry going against a Chargers defense that was No. 29 in rush EPA (0.038) and SR (44.8%) last year.
Titans HC Mike Vrabel is 26-17 ATS (15.9% ROI) as an underdog.
Rams +8 vs. 49ers
I haven’t bet on this…yet. My projections show significant value on the Rams this week, just as they did last week, when I was too wimpy to bet them.
I talked about them on a recent Betting Life show with Drew Dinsick.
On the one hand, I should be willing to bet my projections, especially early in the year, when my edge might be the largest.
On the other hand, we’re talking about the Rams without No. 1 WR Cooper Kupp, and HC Sean McVay has been a personal whipping boy for former boss and current 49ers HC Kyle Shanahan in their head-to-head matchups with his record of 3-10 ATS (-55.2% ROI).
I guess here are my thoughts: If this gets to +10, I’m almost certain to bet it, and I’m willing to let this number hang out there for a while to see where it goes.
If it drops to +7.5, even there I might still bet it, because the difference from +8 to +7.5 is minimal, and it’s worth waiting to see if this line will move up to the key number of +10.
Cardinals +5.5 vs. Giants
I’m showing value on this number, but I’m waiting to see if it moves any higher. I’d love it at +7, as much as one can love anything to do with the Cardinals.
Jets +9.5 at Cowboys
I bet this early on the look-ahead at +3, so I’m already writing this off as a loss, but I think that +9.5 is just too much given how good the Jets are on defense.
Broncos -3.5 vs. Commanders
I’m showing value on the Broncos at their current number, but I’m waiting to see if this line moves to -3. If it doesn’t, I might (reluctantly) take -3.5 close to kickoff.
Steelers +2.5 vs. Browns
Stop me if you’ve heard this before: HC Mike Tomlin is great as a home dog.
For his career, he’s 73-62-4 ATS (5.9% ROI) at home, 53-31-4 ATS (22.7% ROI) as an underdog, and 15-5-3 ATS (40.1% ROI) as a home underdog.
Dec 4, 2022; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett (8) throws against the Atlanta Falcons in the first quarter at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
On top of that, Tomlin is great in the division -- 55-42-4 ATS (10.8% ROI) -- and Browns HC Kevin Stefanski very much is not: 6-13 ATS (-38.8% ROI).
I’m waiting to see if the injury news for WR Diontae Johnson (hamstring) and DT Cameron Heyward (groin) pushes this number to +3.
Freedman’s Five Contest Picks
Various sportsbooks (such as the SuperBook, Circa, and DraftKings) run season-long contests in which participants pick five games each week, and whoever has the most ATS victories at the end of the season wins.
Based on the current consensus odds, the contest lines, my projections, and the Unabated Pick’em Edge Tool, here are the five games I’m thinking about entering into the DraftKings contest.
Note: I expect some of these picks will change based on line movement, news, and additional research.
- Vikings +7.5 at Eagles: Lots of value in getting this past +7.
- Falcons +1.5 vs. Packers: Wrong team favored.
- Titans +3.5 vs. Chargers: Currently +3 in the market.
- Chiefs -2.5 at Jaguars: Value in anything under a field goal with QB Patrick Mahomes.
- Steelers +2.5 vs. Browns: Hard to fade Tomlin as a home dog.
Previous Best Bets Pieces
