Freedman's Best Bets. Top Picks for NFL Week 3.

This is the beginning of the introduction. It’s like a handshake with someone you’re meeting for the first time. A slap on the back of a familiar friend. A quick hug with a distant family member.

This is the middle of the introduction. This is the point where I remind you what you should expect from this article each week.

1. My projected spreads for each game (as of Wednesday morning).
2. A list of my favorite spread bets for the week (as of writing).
3. Brief notes on my favorite bets (no more than a few short paragraphs on each bet).
4. Even briefer notes (hopefully) on other games that have my eye (for whatever reason).
5. The five games I’m most thinking about using in picks contests (as of writing).

And this is the end of the introduction. A short kiss goodbye. A door closing. A decision irrevocably made. A step into the future. The beginning of the undoing.

Week 2 Record

• Best Bets: 2-1 ATS (+0.82 units)
• DraftKings Contest Picks: 5-0

Week 2 was a strong bounce-back performance for me after a subpar Week 1 overall.

I feel good about Week 3 so far and like most of the positions I’ve established, many of which have moved in my favor.

There are still a few spread bets on the board that offer value currently, and those are the ones I’ll highlight in this piece.

Year-to-Date Record

• Best Bets: 4-2 ATS (+1.58 units)
• DraftKings Contest Picks: 9-1

I’ll take it.

Freedman’s Week 3 Projections Against the Spread

I have two projection models. The first is my personal one. It’s the full Freedman: 100% me. Unadulterated. It’s probably too aggressive. 

The second model is my “official” one, which blends my personal projections with other inputs. It’s more measured and presentable — and that’s the model I’m using to create these “official” spread projections for Week 3, ordered according to kickoff time.

Projections and consensus odds as of Wednesday, Sept. 20 at 6 a.m. ET. “Edge” is how many points of value I see for the listed team. A positive edge is good. A negative edge is bad.

Freedman’s Favorite Week 3 Bets

Here are my favorite bets, which you can find (balong with lots of other bets) in our 100% FREE bet tracker.

• Giants +10 at 49ers (-105, FanDuel)
• Cardinals +12.5 vs. Cowboys (-110, BetMGM)
• Steelers +3 at Raiders (-115, DraftKings)

Abbreviations: Check out the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use. (I don’t want to clutter up the intro by listing them all here.)

Giants +10 at 49ers (-105, FanDuel)

The Giants are on short rest with back-to-back road games out west and without their best offensive player in RB Saquon Barkley (ankle). The market is clearly reacting to their negative circumstances.

Sep 17, 2023; Glendale, Arizona, USA; New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones (8) passes against the Arizona Cardinals during the first half at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

But backup RB Matt Breida (#RevengeGame) is a competent fill-in, and I expect the Giants to utilize their effective ground game (No. 4 in rush SR) to grind the clock down and shorten the contest against a 49ers defense that has surprisingly underwhelmed against the run through two weeks (No. 30 in rush SR, per RBs Don’t Matter).

This is a foul-smelling hold-your-nose type of play. 

• Personal Projection: +7.3
• Official Projection: +8.6
• Cutoff: Giants +10

Cardinals +12.5 vs. Cowboys (-110, BetMGM)

This is another disgusting position. I actually recommend not even watching this game. And it also might be wise to wait on this bet until closer to kickoff, because I can imagine the number moving even more toward the Cowboys, who have scored more points (70) and allowed fewer points (10) than any other team in the league.

But the Cardinals have been feisty and competitive this year. They lost in Weeks 1-2 yet still covered both games despite entering the season as the presumed worst team in the league. With RB James Conner, I expect the Cardinals to attack a Cowboys run defense that has limited big plays (No. 1 in rush EPA) but consistently allowed positive plays (No. 23 in rush SR). 

With a run-heavy attack, the Cardinals could slow the game down just enough to get the cover.

As I mentioned in the Monday Betting Life newsletter, 0-2 underdogs are 59-42-2 ATS (13.0% ROI, per Action Network) over the past 20 years.

Sign up for the FREE Betting Life newsletter NOW for +EV insight in your inbox every Monday, Thursday, and Sunday morning.

• Personal Projection: +7.8
• Official Projection: +9.6
• Cutoff: +10.5

You can tail the Cardinals on BetMGM, where you can also get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win! Simply sign up below to start betting today!

Steelers +3 at Raiders (-115, DraftKings)

The Steelers have been terrible on offense (No. 32 in total DVOA, per FTN). QB Kenny Pickett is No. 32 in QBR (per ESPN). OC Matt Canada’s system has been unwatchable through two weeks.

But the offense has also had tough matchups against the 49ers and Browns. That’s not the case this week: The Raiders are No. 31 in defensive EPA, SR and DVOA. The Steelers have a chance to get going in this spot, and their defense is good enough to keep them in the game, especially against a Raiders offense that might be without WRs Davante Adams (concussion) and Jakobi Meyers (concussion). 

Finally, there’s a massive difference between Steelers HC Mike Tomlin (No. 3 in our Fantasy Life unit rankings) and Raiders HC Josh McDaniels (No. 26). Under Tomlin, the Steelers as underdogs are 54-31-4 ATS (23.5% ROI). They almost always keep games close.

• Personal Projection: -3
• Official Projection: -0.3
• Cutoff: Pick’Em

Week 3 Games That Have My Attention

Colts +8 at Ravens

I don’t think the injury status of Colts QB Anthony Richardson (concussion) matters all that much to the spread, but this line could move if we see any practice report progress from Ravens LT Ronnie Stanley (knee), C Tyler Linderbaum (ankle) and CB Marlon Humphrey (foot).

Check out my Week 3 injury report for more information on the guys I’m monitoring.

Browns -3 vs. Titans

This line has moved from -4.5 to -3 — but I lean toward the Browns, who have been great on defense this year (No. 1 in SR, No. 2 in EPA). If this line happens to move below -3, I might act.

Broncos +6.5 at Dolphins

My projections show theoretical value on the Broncos: They are 0-2 but have just a -3 point differential. But they’ve had an easy schedule, and I’m conservative in adjusting my priors early in the season, which means that I fear I’m projecting their defense to be a better unit than it actually is (No. 30 in EPA and DVOA).

Saints +2 at Packers

My projection leans toward the Saints, but I have limited incentive to bet them now since this number is in the middle ground between pick’em and +3. Plus, I’m not strongly convinced of my projection, as the Saints have had a soft schedule so far. I do, though, think that Packers QB Jordan Love (No. 1 in AY/A) will come back to earth against a tough Saints pass defense (No. 4 in EPA and SR).

Buccaneers +5.5 vs. Eagles

I lean toward the Buccaneers and told Matt LaMarca on the “Morning After” show on Monday — when this line was +6.5 — that I was waiting to see where this number would go and that if a +6 popped up in the market then I would grab a remaining +6.5.

Alas, I missed the movement, and now I’m not sure if I like +5.5 enough to bet on it. I should’ve just grabbed the +6.5 when it was there, given that the market moved against the Eagles in both Weeks 1-2.

Bengals -2 vs. Rams

I talked about this game — and the Bengals and Rams from a bigger-picture perspective —  on the Tuesday show with Fabian Sommer.

We’re just waiting for clarification on the injury situation with QB Joe Burrow (calf), but I’m of the opinion that this number has moved too far. That said, if Burrow is out, I don’t know what’s to keep the Rams from closing as favorites. 

Freedman’s Five Week 3 Contest Picks

Various sportsbooks (such as the SuperBook, Circa and DraftKings) run season-long contests in which participants pick five games each week, and whoever has the most ATS victories at the end of the season wins.

Based on the current consensus odds, the contest lines, my projections, and the Unabated Pick’em Edge Tool, here are the five games I’m thinking about entering into the DraftKings contest.

Note: I expect some of these picks will change based on line movement, news and additional research.

• Giants +10.5 at 49ers: The market is at +10, so there’s value.
• Titans +3.5 at Browns: As I mentioned earlier, I lean toward the Browns, but the market is at +3. Titans HC Mike Vrabel is 27-17-1 ATS (17.7% ROI).
• Texans +9.5 at Jaguars: A little value relative to the market (+9), and I think the Texans will be absent from most cards.
• Steelers +2.5 at Raiders: If you let me bet Tomlin as a dog, I probably will.
• Rams +2.5 at Bengals: If Burrow is ruled out, I expect this to become a chalky pick.

Abbreviations

• Against the Spread (ATS)
• Return on Investment (ROI)
• Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
• Expected Points Added (EPA)
• Success Rate (SR)
• Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)

Previous Best Bets Pieces

• Week 1
• Week 2