Freedman's Best Bets. Top Picks For NFL Week 4.

In prior versions of this piece, I’ve included analysis on the five games I’m most thinking about using in picks contests.

But I’ve started writing this piece earlier in the week, and DraftKings has started posting its contest lines later and later.

So moving forward I’ll provide some general thoughts on picks contests, but I won’t specifically note the games I tentatively plan to use, since that would be impossible.

Otherwise, this piece is the same as it has been the past few weeks — except I have come down with some sort of illness and feel terrible, so I’ll attempt to be less prolix so I can go back to bed.

Here’s what you’re getting.

1. My projected spreads for each game (as of Wednesday morning).
2. A list of my favorite spread bets for the week (as of writing).
3. Brief notes on my favorite bets (no more than a few short paragraphs on each bet).
4. Even briefer notes (hopefully) on other games that have my eye (for whatever reason).

Week 3 Record

• Best Bets: 2-1 ATS (+0.78 units)
• DraftKings Contest Picks: 2-3

Year-to-Date Record

• Best Bets: 6-3 ATS (+2.36 units)
• DraftKings Contest Picks: 11-4

Freedman’s Week 4 Projections Against the Spread

I have two projection models. The first is my personal one. It’s the full Freedman: 100% me. Unadulterated. It’s probably too aggressive. 

The second model is my “official” one, which blends my personal projections with other inputs. It’s more measured and presentable — and that’s the model I’m using to create these “official” spread projections for Week 4, ordered according to kickoff time.

Projections and consensus odds as of Wed. 9/27 at 6:15 am ET. “Edge” is how many points of value I see for the listed team. A positive edge is good. A negative edge is bad.

Freedman’s Favorite Week 4 Bets

Here are my favorites bets, which you can find (along with lots of other bets) in our 100% FREE bet tracker.

• Steelers -3 at Texans (-110, Caesars)
• Patriots +7 at Cowboys (-115, BetMGM)
• Cardinals +14 at 49ers (-110, FanDuel)

Abbreviations: Check out the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use. (I don’t want to clutter up the intro by listing them all here.)

Steelers -3 at Texans (-110, Caesars)

The Steelers have won back-to-back coinflip games they easily could’ve lost and have a -14 point differential despite their 2-1 record — but that’s the kind of team the Steelers are: a team that maximizes its odds of winning close games, especially as underdogs.

But here the Steelers are road favorites — and that’s pretty much the last situation in which I’d want to be on them and HC Mike Tomlin.

That said, the Texans have a minimal (perhaps nonexistent) home-field advantage, and I view the Steelers as being at least a clear tier ahead of the Texans.

Specifically, I think the Texans offensive line — down LG Kenyon Green (shoulder, IR), Cs Scott Quessenberry (knee, IR) and Juice Scruggs (leg, IR) and RT Tytus Howard (hand, IR) and maybe also LT Laremy Tunsil (knee) — will struggle against the pass rush led by EDGEs T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith.

• Original Bet: -4 (-110, Caesars)
• Personal Projection: -6.5
• Official Projection: -4.75
• Cutoff: -3 (-120)

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Patriots +7 at Cowboys (-115, BetMGM)

For as good as the Cowboys defense is, it has a fatal flaw: It’s No. 32 in rush SR (50.8%, per RBs Don’t Matter). Despite selecting DT Mazi Smith in the first round of the 2023 draft, the Cowboys still can’t stop the run.

That’s why they lost last week as double-digit favorites to the Cardinals, who incessantly ran the ball at the Cowboys, and I expect the Patriots to follow suit with RBs Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliott. 

If the Patriots are able to slow the game down with a run-heavy attack, I think that will do just enough for them to get the cover.

• Original Bet: +7.5 (-105, DraftKings)
• Personal Projection: +5
• Official Projection: +6
• Cutoff: +7 (-120) 

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Cardinals +14 at 49ers (-110, FanDuel)

This is another bet that will be tough on the eyes, but the Cardinals have been feisty and competitive this year, going 3-0 ATS to open the campaign and winning outright in Week 3 as double-digit underdogs.

I don’t like the idea of going against 49ers QB Brock Purdy, who as a favorite is 8-2 ATS (52.1% ROI, per Action Network). And I assume that when the 49ers have the ball they will be their normal efficient selves.

But I expect the Cardinals to have success running the ball with RB James Conner and QB Joshua Dobbs, which should allow them to limit the number of possessions the 49ers have, thus keeping this game relatively close.

Sep 10, 2023; Landover, Maryland, USA; Arizona Cardinals quarterback Joshua Dobbs (9) throws a pass in the 4th quarter against the Washington Commanders at FedExField. Mandatory Credit: Brent Skeen-USA TODAY Sports

For as uninspiring as the Cardinals have been on offense, they’ve shown the ability to move the ball via the ground game, ranking No. 3 in rush DVOA (17.8%, per FTN) and No. 9 in rush EPA (-0.028) and SR (43.2%), whereas the 49ers in rush defense are Nos. 21, 23 and 25 in DVOA (-2.3%), EPA (-0.012) and SR (44.7%).

Given that the Cardinals’ strength lines up directly with the 49ers’ vulnerability, +14 is a lot of points to be getting as a divisional road underdog.

• Original Bet: +14.5 (-110, FanDuel)
• Personal Projection: +9.75
• Official Projection: +11.88
• Cutoff: +14 (-120) 

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Week 4 Games That Have My Attention

Panthers +3.5 vs. Vikings

If we get QB Andy Dalton starting instead of rookie Bryce Young, this line will intrigue me. He operated the offense with veteran competency last week, and for his career he’s 45-35-2 ATS (10.4% ROI) as an underdog.

Buccaneers +3.5 at Saints

I think the downgrade from QB Derek Carr to backup Jameis Winston is significant, and I’m strongly thinking about “buying out” of my Saints -3 lookahead position by now betting Buccaneers +3.5.

Winston for his career is 8-19-1 ATS (40.1% ROI for faders) as a favorite. Basically the guy should almost never be laying points.

Commanders +8.5 at Eagles

I’m showing slight value on the Commanders, but it’s not around a key number so I’m ignoring it. Plus, I think the Commanders are fraudulent.

Bills -3 vs. Dolphins

I know that my projections show value on the Bills — but the projections are more of a guideline than a rule. In the lookahead market, I grabbed Dolphins +3.5 because I believed this line would move toward them and I’m good with that position.

Bengals -2.5 at Titans

I haven’t bet it yet, but I think this number should be -3.

Browns -2.5 vs. Ravens

The Ravens have so many injuries all over the roster, and the Browns' defense is elite. I think this should be -3.

Of course, Ravens QB Lamar Jackson is 8-2 ATS (55.7% ROI) as a road underdog, so this might be the exact wrong spot to bet against him.

Bears +3.5 vs. Broncos

I have this projected at +3, so there’s significant theoretical value with the hook — but I haven’t been able to bring myself to the point of backing the Bears.

Freedman’s Five Week 4 Contest Picks

Various sportsbooks (such as the SuperBook, Circa and DraftKings) run season-long contests in which participants pick five games each week, and whoever has the most ATS victories at the end of the season wins.

Based on the current consensus odds and my projections, here are a few general thoughts on the DraftKings contest.

Note: Some of my thoughts will probably change based on line movement, news and additional research.

• I expect some of the longer underdogs (Commanders, Patriots, Cardinals and Jets) to have minimal exposure in the contest.
• I can imagine both the Dolphins and Bills being popular selections, given how dynamic that game should be.
• I think that both the Falcons and Jaguars will have relatively lower exposure rates because the London game kicks off early in the morning.

Abbreviations

• Against the Spread (ATS)
• Return on Investment (ROI)
• Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
• Expected Points Added (EPA)
• Success Rate (SR)
• Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)

Previous Best Bets Pieces

• Week 1
• Week 2
• Week 3