Week 4 was all sorts of bad. Literally my worst week as a sports bettor.
Some of it was bad luck: I lost every game in which I had closing line value. That’s not going to happen often.
Some of it was injury luck: I was on the Browns and Steelers, both of whom lost their quarterbacks.
And some of it was likely bad process. No excuses. But last week I was traveling, so my natural routine was thrown off. I was traveling for a funeral, so I wasn’t fully focused. I was traveling back home to Texas, so I didn’t have my usual bandwidth on account of “needing” to spend time interacting with family.
And when traveling I happened to get sick, which seriously diminished my productivity.
I’m not saying this to explain why I performed poorly. I did terribly out of some combination of randomness and just not reading the matchups and the market right.
I’m saying all of this to point out that I should’ve done a better job of analyzing the moment and saying to myself, “There’s a chance that I’m going to be off my game this week because of everything going on, so I should scale back my action.”
As a bettor, I didn’t do what I needed to in reading myself and my situation. That’s 100% on me.
Anyway, moving on.
Reminder: Here’s what you’re getting with this piece.
- My projected spreads for each game (as of Wednesday morning).
- A list of my favorite spread bets for the week (as of writing).
- Brief notes on my favorite bets (no more than a few short paragraphs on each bet).
- Even briefer notes (hopefully) on other games that have my eye (for whatever reason).
- A few general thoughts on candidates for picks contests.
Week 4 Record
- Best Bets: 0-3 ATS (-3 units)
- DraftKings Contest Picks: 5-0
Amazing. I had a terrible betting week … but hit all my positions in the picks contest.
One week at a time.
Year-to-Date Record
- Best Bets: 6-6 ATS (-0.64 units)
- DraftKings Contest Picks: 16-4
Freedman’s Week 5 Projections Against the Spread
I have two projection models. The first is my personal one. It’s the full Freedman: 100% me. Unadulterated. It’s probably too aggressive.
The second model is my “official” one, which blends my personal projections with other inputs. It’s more measured and presentable — and that’s the model I’m using to create these “official” spread projections for Week 5, ordered according to kickoff time.
Teams | Location | Projection | Consensus | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
CHI | Away | 5.6 | 5.5 | -0.1 |
WAS | Home | -5.6 | -5.5 | 0.1 |
JAX | Neutral | 5.6 | 5.5 | -0.1 |
BUF | Neutral | -5.6 | -5.5 | 0.1 |
TEN | Away | -0.1 | 1 | 1.1 |
IND | Home | 0.1 | -1 | -1.1 |
HOU | Away | 3.9 | 2 | -1.9 |
ATL | Home | -3.9 | -2 | 1.9 |
CAR | Away | 8.3 | 9.5 | 1.3 |
DET | Home | -8.3 | -9.5 | -1.3 |
BAL | Away | -1.6 | -3.5 | -1.9 |
PIT | Home | 1.6 | 3.5 | 1.9 |
NO | Away | 3.0 | 1.5 | -1.5 |
NE | Home | -3.0 | -1.5 | 1.5 |
NYG | Away | 10.0 | 11 | 1.0 |
MIA | Home | -10.0 | -11 | -1.0 |
PHI | Away | -2.6 | -4.5 | -1.9 |
LAR | Home | 2.6 | 4.5 | 1.9 |
CIN | Away | -3.9 | -3 | 0.9 |
ARI | Home | 3.9 | 3 | -0.9 |
NYJ | Away | 2.8 | 2 | -0.8 |
DEN | Home | -2.8 | -2 | 0.8 |
KC | Away | -3.8 | -5.5 | -1.8 |
MIN | Home | 3.8 | 5.5 | 1.8 |
DAL | Away | 2.9 | 3.5 | 0.6 |
SF | Home | -2.9 | -3.5 | -0.6 |
GB | Away | -0.4 | -2 | -1.6 |
LV | Home | 0.4 | 2 | 1.6 |
Projections and consensus odds as of Wed. 7 a.m. Oct. 4 at 7 ET. “Edge” is how many points of value I see for the listed team. A positive edge is good. A negative edge is bad.
Freedman’s Favorite Week 5 Bets
Here are my favorite bets, which you can find (along with lots of other bets) in our 100% FREE bet tracker.
- Falcons -1.5 vs. Texans (-110, BetMGM)
- Rams +4.5 vs. Eagles (-110, Caesars)
- Vikings +5.5 vs. Chiefs (-110, BetMGM)
Abbreviations: Check out the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use. (I don’t want to clutter up the intro by listing them all here.)
Falcons -1.5 vs. Texans (-110, BetMGM)
This is a buy-low spot on the Falcons, who have lost two games in a row on the road while scoring just 13 points, and now they have a game after just having played in London.
Oct 1, 2023; London, United Kingdom; Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson (7) carries the ball against the Jacksonville Jaguars in the second half during an NFL International Series game at Wembley Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
But they’re at home now, and they have a significant ground game advantage against the Texans. On offense, the Falcons are No. 8 in rush EPA (-0.012, per RBs Don’t Matter) and No. 10 in rush DVOA (1.7%, per FTN) whereas the Texans' defense is Nos. 25 & 28 (-0.012, 5.1%).
- Original Bet: -1.5 (-104, FanDuel)
- Projection: -3.9
- Cutoff: -2.5
Rams +4.5 vs. Eagles (-110, Caesars)
As I noted in the Week 4 Thursday Betting Life newsletter, I am high compared to the market on the Rams.
Even without star WR Cooper Kupp, they have opened the year with a top-12 offense in EPA (0.067, No. 8), SR (45.1%, No. 10) and DVOA (13.3%, No. 11). And I think there’s a good chance that Kupp will return to action this week.
The Rams are the only team still undefeated ATS this season.
And I like the matchups they could with Kupp in the slot against CB James Bradberry (playing out of position in the interior) and WRs Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell on the perimeter against CB Josh Jobe (backup forced into starting role because of injuries).
- Original Bet: +6 (-110, DraftKings)
- Projection: +2.6
- Cutoff: +3.5
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Vikings +5.5 vs. Chiefs (-110, BetMGM)
The Vikings have punished themselves with inopportune turnovers, which have dragged down their EPA and DVOA numbers, but on offense they’ve been No. 8 in SR (46.2%) and No. 3 in yards per play (6.2). The Vikings can move the ball.
And as great as QB Patrick Mahomes is for the Chiefs, he has a propensity in the regular season for not pushing to score as many points as possible, which has enabled opposing underdogs of more than a field goal to go 36-28-1 ATS (8.1% ROI, per Action Network).
Just this past week — on Sunday Night Football! — Mahomes strategically passed up points, which enabled the Jets to cover.
We could see something similar again this week.
- Original Bet: +6.5 (-110, SuperBook)
- Projection: +3.8
- Cutoff: +4.5
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Week 5 Games That Have My Attention
Titans +1 at Colts
The Titans normally play close games, and HC Mike Vrabel as an underdog is 28-18-1 ATS (16.7% ROI).
Panthers +9.5 at Lions
At some point, we’ll have a buy-low spot on the Panthers, right? Right??? If this somehow hits +10, it’s probably an auto-bet almost on principle alone.
Steelers +3.5 vs. Ravens
Ugh. The Steelers looked so bad in Week 4, but this is the classic “back the Steelers” spot. Under HC Mike Tomlin, they’re 55-31-4 ATS (24.2% ROI) as underdogs, 74-62-4 ATS (6.5% ROI) at home, 56-42-4 ATS (11.6% ROI) in the division and 53-40 ATS (12.1% ROI) off of a loss.
For the sake of absurdity, if you stack all those situations on top of each other … Tomlin is 4-0 ATS (91.4% ROI) as a divisional home underdog off a loss. Hell, in this spot Tomlin is even 4-0 ML (123.8% ROI).
I don’t know how, but I can imagine the Steelers somehow winning this game outright. That would be such a Tomlin thing to do.
Patriots -1.5 vs. Saints
Patriots defense vs. injured Saints QB Derek Carr. That’s the handicap.
Giants +11 vs. Dolphins
The Giants are on short rest coming off Monday Night Football, where they just got blown out 24-3. What could go wrong?
QB Daniel Jones as a road underdog is 17-7 ATS (36.9% ROI).
Gross.
Bengals -3 at Cardinals
QB Joe Burrow is No. 34 in composite EPA + CPOE (-0.009). I don’t even know what to say. At some point, this team will improve.
Broncos -2 vs. Jets
The Broncos are quietly No. 4 in offensive yards per play (5.9), and the Jets defense has not been elite this year (+0.032, No. 23 in EPA).
Cowboys +3.5 at 49ers
HC Mike McCarthy as a road underdog, why not???
Freedman’s Week 5 Contest Picks
Various sportsbooks (such as the SuperBook, Circa and DraftKings) run season-long contests in which participants pick five games each week, and whoever has the most ATS victories at the end of the season wins.
Based on the current consensus odds and my projections, here are a few general thoughts on the DraftKings contest.
Note: Some of my thoughts will probably change based on line movement, news and additional research.
- I expect some of the longer underdogs (Panthers, Giants) to have minimal exposure in the contest.
- I can imagine both the Cowboys and 49ers being popular selections, given how dynamic that game should be.
- I think some of the disgusting and short home favorites (Falcons, Patriots, Broncos) will have lower pick rates.
Abbreviations
- Against the Spread (ATS)
- Return on Investment (ROI)
- Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
- Expected Points Added (EPA)
- Success Rate (SR)
- Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
Previous Best Bets Pieces
