Freedman's Best Bets. Top Picks Against The Spread For NFL Week 6.

The slump continues.

In other news, I’ve started re-reading Robert Benchley, whom I learned about and first read years ago in college.

Benchley was an American writer who wrote short essays for Vanity Fair and The New Yorker from (I believe) 1914 to his death in 1945. He was a charter member of the Algonquin Round Table, if that means anything to you. (If that doesn’t mean anything to you, it was a group of writers and all-around tastemakers who got together for lunch on a regular basis at the Algonquin Hotel, where they would bust each other’s chops for hours.)

After Mark Twain, Benchley is probably one of my favorite American humorists. Of course, I say that loosely. It’s Twain at the top, a massive tier drop, and then a whole bunch of people vying for and perpetually tied at No. 2.

In a piece of his titled, “Football Rules or Whatever They Are” (from I believe 1930-31), Benchley jokingly complains about how the rules of football are always changing and how those changes are ruining the fan experience of watching the game.

Here’s an excerpt.

“All that the spectator gets out of a game now is the fresh air, the comical articles in his program, the sight of twenty-two young men rushing about in mysterious formations, and whatever he brought along in his flask. The murmur which you hear running through the stands after each play is caused by people asking other people what the idea of that was and other people trying to explain.

The thing to do is to change the rules for good and all this winter and then let us take a couple of years to learn them. It is this dribbling along, a couple of changes this year and a couple more next, which is driving us old boys crazy.”

He then goes on to make the most intentionally absurd suggestions for revisions to the rules, which he thinks should “stand for ten years or until the game has been discontinued entirely.”

Nothing new under the sun.

I’ve had slumps before. I’ll have slumps again.

As a recreational bettor, I have a very simple goal: Stay in the game as long as possible, which means that bankroll management is just as important as — and maybe more important than — finding the right picks each week.

So I’m thinking of this slump as 1) a lesson in bankroll management and 2) an opportunity to improve my process.

Last week, my favorite spread bets were:

• Falcons -1.5 vs. Texans: Closed at -2.5
• Rams +4.5 vs. Eagles: Closed at +3.5
• Vikings +5.5 vs. Chiefs: Closed +3.5

I went 1-2 … but I got closing line value (CLV) on all three bets.

The gambling gods be good, getting CLV ain’t the same as winning — but it’s a strong indicator that you’re on the sharp side and it’s a good long-term predictor of profitability.

I’m making some tweaks to my projection and betting process, but I’m mainly staying the course.

At some point, the wins will come.

And if they don’t … that’s what bankroll management is for.

Reminder: Here’s what you’re getting with this piece.

1. My projected spreads for each game (as of Wednesday morning).
2. A list of my favorite spread bets for the week (as of writing).
3. Brief notes on my favorite bets (no more than a few short paragraphs on each bet).
4. Even briefer notes (hopefully) on other games that have my eye (for whatever reason).
5. A few general thoughts on candidates for picks contests.

Week 5 Record

• Best Bets: 1-2 ATS (-1.09 units)
• DraftKings Contest Picks: 2-3

Last week in the contest I lost with Titans +0.5, Ravens -3.5, and Vikings +4.5. I won with Bengals -2.5 and Raiders +2.5.

Meh.

One week at a time.

Year-to-Date Record

• Best Bets: 7-8 ATS (-1.79 units)
• DraftKings Contest Picks: 18-7

Freedman’s Week 6 Projections Against the Spread

I have two projection models. The first is my personal one. It’s the full Freedman: 100% me. Unadulterated. It’s probably too aggressive. 

The second model is my “official” one, which blends my personal projections with other inputs. It’s more measured and presentable — and that’s the model I’m using to create these “official” spread projections for Week 6, ordered according to kickoff time.

Projections and consensus odds as of 7:15 a.m. ET Wednesday, Oct. 10. “Edge” is how many points of value I see for the listed team. A positive edge is good. A negative edge is bad.

Freedman’s Favorite Week 5 Bets

There are a few games that I theoretically like more than the ones I’m about to list as favorites — but I need to wait on injury information for those games, and I’ll talk about them in the “Games That Have My Attention” section.

That said, here are my favorite bets right now, which you can find (along with lots of other bets) in our 100% FREE bet tracker.

• Titans +4.5 (in London) vs. Ravens (-112, DraftKings)
• Cardinals +7 at Rams (-110, BetMGM)
• Chargers +2.5 vs. Cowboys (-110, PointsBet)

Abbreviations: Check out the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use. (I don’t want to clutter up the intro by listing them all here.)

Titans +4.5 (in London) vs. Ravens (-112, DraftKings)

I don’t think the Titans are actually that good, but under HC Mike Vrabel they have a propensity to play and win ugly games — and those are the kinds of games the Ravens have recently lost (Week 3 vs. Colts, Week 5 at Steelers).

As an underdog of at least a field goal, Vrabel is 25-12-1 ATS (29.1% ROI, per Action Network).

And I don’t think the Ravens defense is as good as it has looked. In two games against rookie QBs making their first NFL starts (C.J. Stroud, Dorian Thompson-Robinson), the Ravens have allowed an average of six points. Against an injured Joe Burrow, a backup Gardner Minshew and an underwhelming Kenny Pickett, the Ravens allowed 21 points per game.

A healthy Ryan Tannehill might be the best QB they’ve faced all year.

• Original Bet: +4.5 (-105, FanDuel)
• Projection: +2.75
• Cutoff: +3.5

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Cardinals +7 at Rams (-110, BetMGM)

I like the Rams … but laying seven points feels like too much for a team that has the league’s worst all-time home-field advantage and a defense that is No. 27 in DVOA (7.5%, per FTN).   

The Rams are No. 14 in offensive yards per play (5.3). The Cardinals are No. 22 in defensive yards per play (5.5).

The Cardinals are No. 9 in offensive yards per play (5.6). The Rams are No. 17 in defensive yards per play (5.3).

I’m not saying that these two teams are the same: The Rams should be favored. But both teams have roughly the same offensive edge against mediocre-at-best defenses.

• Original Bet: +7 (-110, BetMGM)
• Projection: +6.1
• Cutoff: +7 (-120)

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Chargers +2.5 vs. Cowboys (-110, PointsBet)

The Chargers are coming off the bye and are at home. They entered the bye rather injured, but I expect them to emerge from it close to fully healthy. And given that they play on Monday Night Football, that means they — and specifically OC Kellen Moore, going against his former team — will have had 15 days to prepare.

These are ideal circumstances for the Chargers.

Oct 1, 2023; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) drops back to pass against the Las Vegas Raiders during the first half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Compare that to the Cowboys, who are now playing in their second consecutive West Coast game … and yet they elected not to stay out in California and benefit from a highly focused minicamp type of environment after a tough loss to the 49ers … even though Oxnard (where the Cowboys have training camp) is only about an hour away from SoFi Stadium.

With the Cowboys, even the simple things aren’t easy.  

• Original Bet: +3 (-110, SuperBook)
• Projection: +1.25
• Cutoff: +2

Week 6 Games That Have My Attention

Broncos +10.5 at Chiefs

That’s a lot of points for the cover-neutral Chiefs to be laying on a short week, and Broncos QB Russell Wilson — for all his flaws — is 6-3 ATS (27.3% ROI) as an underdog since leaving the Seahawks last year.

Commanders +2.5 at Falcons

This looks like a teaser leg looking for a partner.

Buccaneers +3 vs. Lions

Geoff Ulrich brought up a great point about this game on the early lines Betting Life show: This line probably won’t get shorter for the Buccaneers, but it could get longer if the Lions have positive injury news this week.

So if you like the Buccaneers — and my projections do — then it might be best to wait on betting them.

Browns +6 vs. 49ers

My projections like the Browns, but that’s assuming QB Deshaun Watson (shoulder) plays, and that apparently isn’t an assumption we can safely make. Plus, I don’t know if I want to back an injured Watson anyway.

Panthers +13.5 at Dolphins

The Panthers are 0-4-1 ATS (-100% ROI). The Dolphins are 4-1 ATS (52.7 ROI). My projections point to the Panthers, but I’m skeptical I’ll actually be able to pull the trigger.

I bet them at +10 last week, and I might still be dealing from the PTSD of that experience. They’re a terrible team, and I’m skeptical that +13.5 is actually enough to take them now.

Seahawks +3 at Bengals

I haven’t bet it yet, but I have this projected under a field goal. I think the Seahawks should be rested and ready off the bye.

Vikings -2.5 at Bears

The Bears won last week — but they’re still terrible, and the Vikings have been the league’s unluckiest team this season. At some point, they’ll benefit from positive regression.

Jets +7 vs. Eagles

My projections point to the Jets … but this feels like a bear trap, especially given that it opened at +6.5, was bet to +7, and hasn’t seen any sharp action pushing it back to +6.5.

Freedman’s Week 6 Contest Picks

Various sportsbooks (such as the SuperBook, Circa and DraftKings) run season-long contests in which participants pick five games each week, and whoever has the most ATS victories at the end of the season wins.

Based on the current consensus odds and my projections, here are a few general thoughts on the DraftKings contest.

Note: Some of my thoughts will probably change based on line movement, news and additional research.

• I expect some of the longer underdogs (Broncos, Panthers, Giants) to have minimal exposure in the contest — especially since they all lost and failed to cover last week.
• I can imagine both the Cowboys and Chargers being popular selections, given how dynamic that game should be.
• I think some of the disgusting and shorter favorites (Falcons, Saints, Vikings) will have lower pick rates.

Abbreviations

• Against the Spread (ATS)
• Return on Investment (ROI)
• Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
• Expected Points Added (EPA)
• Success Rate (SR)
• Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)

Previous Best Bets Pieces

• Week 1
• Week 2
• Week 3
• Week 4
• Week 5