Freedman's Best Bets. Top Picks Against The Spread For NFL Week 8.

It’s a weird week against the spread. There are a lot of potential QB injuries and trades that could impact the slate before we get to kickoff.

And it’s a teaser-heavy slate in that there are a lot of spreads that are either under a field goal or over a touchdown.

I honestly don’t see much value on the board right now — except maybe a teaser round-robin. But even then I’m not all that into it.

Moving on …

Reminder: Here’s what you’re getting with this piece.

1. My projected spreads for each game (as of Wednesday morning).
2. SOMETHING NEW: I’m trying it out — my QB value chart.
3. A list of my favorite spread bets for the week (as of writing).
4. Brief notes on my favorite bets (no more than a few short paragraphs on each bet).
5. Even briefer notes (hopefully) on other games that have my eye (for whatever reason).
6. A few general thoughts on candidates for picks contests.

Week 7 Record

• Best Bets: 2-1 ATS (+0.78 units)
• DraftKings Contest Picks: 2-3

Year-to-Date Record

• Best Bets: 9-12 ATS (-3.95 units)
• DraftKings Contest Picks: 21-14

Abbreviations

• Against the Spread (ATS)
• Return on Investment (ROI)
• Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
• Expected Points Added (EPA)
• Success Rate (SR)
• Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)

Freedman’s Week 8 Projections Against the Spread

I have two projection models. The first is my personal one. It’s the full Freedman: 100% me. Unadulterated. It’s probably too aggressive. 

The second model is my “official” one, which blends my personal projections with other inputs. It’s more measured and presentable — and that’s the model I’m using to create these “official” spread projections for Week 6, ordered according to kickoff time.

Projections and consensus odds as of Wed. 10/25 at 6:30 am ET. “Edge” is how many points of value I see for the listed team. A positive edge is good. A negative edge is bad.

Freedman’s Week 8 QB Value Chart

In the Week 7 Betting Life Newsletter, I provided some ATS value of backup QBs relative to their starters, and I realize that the inclusion of a QB chart in this piece might be worthwhile since we’re still dealing with some QB injuries.

These valuations directly compare the ATS value of the starter to his backup. In creating this chart, I’ve relied on the work of Ben Fawkes and Robby Greer.

For the Colts, I should probably move Gardner Minshew to the starter and Sam Ehlinger to the backup since No. 1 QB Anthony Richardson (shoulder, IR) is out, but I wanted to include Richardson this week to highlight this fact: With Minshew’s play this season, he is now a notable upgrade on Richardson — or at least the young rookie version of Richardson we’ve seen this year.

Freedman’s Favorite Week 8 Bets

Here are my favorite bets currently. For all the bets I’ve made for the week, check out our 100% FREE bet tracker.

• Vikings +1 at Packers (-115, BetMGM)
• Steelers +2.5 vs. Jaguars (+100, Caesars)
• Bengals +5.5 at 49ers (-110, DraftKings)

Abbreviations: Check out the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use. (I don’t want to clutter up the intro by listing them all here.)

Vikings +1 at Packers (-115, BetMGM)

Even with their Monday Night Football win over the 49ers last week, the Vikings have still had the worst quantifiable and impactful luck of any NFL team to this point in the year.

Though 3-4, the Vikings could legitimately be 7-0 if not for one or two plays going against them in their losses. 

They’re missing WR Justin Jefferson, but the Packers are also dealing with a slew of injuries, including a potential cluster situation in their secondary, with CBs Jaire Alexander (back) and Eric Stokes (foot) and SS Darnell Savage (calf) all uncertain to play.

Packers QB Jordan Love is No. 24 in AY/A (5.9): He has underwhelmed so far, and I expect him to face regular pressure from Vikings DC Brian Flores.

• Original Bet: Pick’Em (-110)
• Projection: -1.6
• Cutoff: -0.5 (-110)

You can tail the Vikings at BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win. Simply sign up below to start betting today!

Steelers +2.5 vs. Jaguars (+100, Caesars)

Note: I have not bet Steelers +2.5 yet. I’m waiting for it to get to +3, and it’s trending in that direction across the industry. If this number never gets to +3, I’ll either bet +2.5 or tease it up to +8.5.

Last week I wanted to have three bets logged that offered value when I was writing this piece, so I bet Dolphins +2.5 when instead I should’ve waited +3. The +2.5 lost — and the +3 also would’ve lost — but that’s no excuse for not approaching the market in a strategic way.

Anyway, I like the Steelers this week — but I want them at +3.

QB Kenny Pickett played his best game of the year last week (68% completion percentage, 230 yards passing, no turnovers) out of the Week 7 bye, and I expect the offense to continue to improve as the season progresses.

And the Steelers have a truly difference-making defense led by EDGE T.J. Watt, who is in a three-man race with EDGEs Myles Garrett and Micah Parsons for Defensive Player of the Year.

This is a classic spot to back Steelers HC Mike Tomlin (per Action Network):

• Tomin at home: 75-62-4 ATS (7.1% ROI)
• Tomlin as underdog: 57-31-4 ATS (25.7% ROI)
• Tomlin as home underdog: 18-5-3 ATS (46.8% ROI)

As for the Jaguars, they’re in the final week of a 4-of-5 away stretch, and this is a sell-high spot, as they’ve won four games in a row, the most recent of which was on primetime as an underdog.

In this week’s “Bigger Picture” Betting Life show, Stuckey talks about his “buy low, sell high” approach to sports betting.

• Projection: -0.25
• Cutoff: +1.5 (-110)

You can tail the Steelers at Caesars, where your first bet of up to $1,000 is on the house when you sign up below!

Bengals +5.5 at 49ers (-110, DraftKings)

Note: I have not bet Bengals +5.5 yet. I’m waiting to see if this line hits +6, which it could if the 49ers have good injury news. If they don’t, and if this line moves to +5, oh well. The difference between +5.5 and +6 is much more meaningful than the one between +5 and +5.5.

Again, I’m waiting on a bet. That’s a sign of where we are in the NFL season: The market now has a good sense of all the teams — and we’re dealing with QB injuries, so there’s more certainty AND uncertainty than we usually see.

Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) throws in the fourth quarter during an NFL football game between the Seattle Seahawks and the Cincinnati Bengals Sunday, Oct. 15, 2023, at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati. The Cincinnati Bengals won, 17-13.

The Bengals are coming off the bye, so I expect QB Joe Burrow (calf) and WR Tee Higgins (ribs) to be healthier, and I also anticipate that DC Lou Anarumo will have a game plan customized specifically for the 49ers offense (vs. a “let’s line up and do what we do” approach).

As for the 49ers, they’re on short rest off Monday Night Football, and they’ve looked mortal the past two weeks. QB Brock Purdy has regressed, ranking No. 20 in composite EPA + CPOE (0.025, per RBs Don’t Matter). 

And the 49ers defense has been vulnerable to the big play, ranking No. 5 in SR (38.5%) but No. 18 in EPA (-0.016). As I highlighted this offseason in my 49ers betting preview, DC Steve Wilks might not be on the same level as former DCs DeMeco Ryans and Robert Saleh.

I expect the Bengals with extra time to rest and prepare to be able to hang with the 49ers.

• Projection: +3.6
• Cutoff: +4.5 (-110)

You can tail the Bengals on DraftKings, where you can get $200 in bonus bets when you place a first bet of $5 or more by signing up below!

Week 8 Games That Have My Attention

Bills -8.5 vs. Buccaneers

Short rest normally benefits the favorites, and the Bills are in the classic Wong teaser zone.

Rams +6.5 at Cowboys

If this gets to +7, I’ll be thinking hard about the Rams.

Panthers +3 vs. Texans

I have a position on Panthers +3.5 but wouldn’t bet them at +3. If they move to +2.5, then they’ll be teasable.

Giants +3 vs. Jets

The Giants have limited home-field advantage over the Jets in this spot, and the Jets are coming off the bye, but the Giants could also get a number of players back from injury this week, and the market is starting to move toward them. At +2.5, they — like lots of other teams — become teaser candidates.

Titans +2.5 vs. Falcons

The Titans are 28-19-1 ATS (14.3% ROI) as underdogs with HC Mike Vrabel — but they just traded away two-time first-team All-Pro S Kevin Byard, and they might not be done trading players before Sunday. So they are in the teaser zone right now, but I don’t want to bet them yet, as this number has already hit +3 at a couple of books.

Saints +1.5 at Colts

Another potential teaser leg.

Seahawks -3 vs. Browns

I’m increasingly skeptical about QB Deshaun Watson (shoulder) playing in this game. If he’s out, this number will move past the -3.

Chiefs -8 at Broncos

And yet another possible teaser leg, although my projections do show value on the Broncos at the current number, so I’m unlikely to bet this.

Ravens -8.5 at Cardinals

It’s like a teaser tapas party up in here. My projections show value on the Cardinals, but not enough to make me bet them — and yet maybe enough to keep me from teasing the Ravens?

Chargers -8.5 vs. Bears

This one I might tease down to -2.5. Bears QB Tyson Bagent looked competent last week, but one good game does not an NFL QB make.

Lions -8 vs. Raiders 

Another one. Frankly, I’m a little scared by the fact that the market has priced soooo many of these games in the teaser zone. I tend not to believe in sportsbooks setting traps, because where these lines go is largely driven by the market — but it’s notable that the books have opted not to “protect” against the teasers by moving some of these -8s and -8.5s to -9.

Freedman’s Week 8 Contest Picks

Various sportsbooks (such as the SuperBook, Circa and DraftKings) run season-long contests in which participants pick five games each week, and whoever has the most ATS victories at the end of the season wins.

Based on the current consensus odds and my projections, here are a few general thoughts on the DraftKings contest.

Note: Some of my thoughts will probably change based on line movement, news, and additional research.

• I expect some of the longer underdogs (Buccaneers, Rams, Patriots, Commanders, Broncos, Cardinals, Bears and Raiders) to have minimal exposure in the contest.
• I imagine that both the Bengals and 49ers will be popular selections, given that their game might be the best of the week.
• I can see several short favorites (Texans, Vikings, Jets, Falcons, Colts) having low pick rates.

Previous Best Bets Pieces

My previous best bets pieces can be found on my author page.