After last night’s season opener in Kansas City, we are officially in Week 1.
It’s Friday, and that means it’s time for player props.
I will be highlighting five props that I like for Week 1, starting at No. 5 and working my way to No. 1.
Degenerate bettors that we are, we have many more than five props loaded into our 100% FREE bet tracker at Fantasy Life as well as all of our sides, totals, and season-long futures and awards bets, so be sure to check that out.
Again, 100% free.
We also have our official Fantasy Life player projections on the site and our player prop tool, which leverages our projections and compares them to the lines in the prop market to show the bets that we think offer the most opportunity.
Remember that lines can and often do move, and we update our projections regularly, in case there’s a difference between what you see in the market or on the site versus what I highlight here by the time you’re reading.
Gus Edwards Under 7.5 Carries (-114, FanDuel)
- Projection: 5.8
This is correlated to another prop I’m highlighting later (that’s a tease).
New OC Todd Monken wants to throw the ball more, so that means less work on the ground for the Ravens RBs. And because Edwards isn’t much of a pass catcher, that could mean he sees fewer snaps than he previously has as the No. 2 RB.
Dec 17, 2022; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Baltimore Ravens running back Gus Edwards (35) runs the ball against the Cleveland Browns during the second quarter at FirstEnergy Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Galvin-USA TODAY Sports
The Ravens are big home favorites, which usually is correlated with RBs getting more rushing work, especially in the second half — but I think we could see a situation where the Ravens pass to get ahead throughout the game.
Then, by the time they shift to the running game, maybe they’re giving No. 3 RB Justice Hill a little more work than possible.
And of course the Ravens running game will still be built around Lamar Jackson, who always siphons opportunities away from his RBs.
The Texans defense was bad, but not terrible against the run last year (No. 24 in rush EPA and success rate) and it could be better this year with new HC DeMeco Ryans.
We also might have a closer game than the betting lines imply, which means that the Ravens RBs might not get the full opportunity to run wild in garbage time.
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Darius Slayton Under 2.5 Receptions (+125, BetMGM)
- Projection: 2.3
The Giants passing game will likely funnel through new TE Darren Waller and RB Saquon Barkley, so there will be limited targets available for the WRs.
On top of this, I expect there to be something of a rotation at WR early in the season as the team figures out its optimal two- and three-WR sets, so there could be fewer snaps for Slayton than we might expect.
The Giants offense tends to be based on the ground attack, and I think that’s where the Cowboys defense is most exploitable.
There could be fewer overall targets for all Giants pass catchers, and under HC Brian Daboll, QB Daniel Jones has focused more on the short and intermediate parts of the field, so that doesn’t play to Slayton’s strength as a downfield receiver.
Because Slayton is a downfield receiver, even if he has a big game that could conceivably come on just two receptions.
He also has a tough matchup against the Cowboys, who added CB Stephon Gilmore this offseason and have three good safeties, so deep completions could be tough to come by.
Trevor Lawrence Over 11.5 Rushing Yards (-110, BetMGM)
- Projection: 16.4
I typically prefer unders, but I noticed that this week the market in general is a little too low on the mid-tier dual-threat QBs — or the pocket passers who still have rushing ability.
When it comes to guys like Lawrence, Geno Smith, Justin Herbert, they’re being lined as if they’re just pocket passers, but we know they also have the ability to escape the pocket and scramble for extra yards.
It's a small sample, but in four games against Gus Bradley’s Colts defense Lawrence has had at least three carries and, in order:
- 33 rushing yards
- 17
- 11
- 23
For his career, his mean is 18.4 rushing yards per game, his median is 19 yards, so I think he’s being priced close to his realistic floor.
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J.K. Dobbins Under 15.5 Carries (-120, PointsBet)
- Projection: 13.1
This is correlated with the Edwards play and is a general way of investing in the prevailing thesis that the Ravens will pass much more this season than they have previously.
A lot of what I said about Edwards applies here.
I like the idea of putting the Edwards and Dobbins unders in same-game parlays, because I think that they’re likelier to be positively than negatively correlated.
Jan 1, 2023; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Ravens running back J.K. Dobbins (27) rushes during the first half against the Pittsburgh Steelers at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
Normally RBs are negatively correlated in their carries: If one guy doesn’t get that many, that’s because the other RB on his team got more than expected.
But here, they both could go under because of a misprision in the market based on a misunderstanding of the macro functioning of this new offense.
Framed differently, I think it’s likelier that both of the unders hit than that both of these bets fail to cash.
Josh Dobbs Under 210.5 Passing Yards (-115, PointsBet)
- Projection: 160.4
I don’t even know where to start.
Dobbs theoretically knows the offense from his time together in Cleveland with OC Drew Petzing, but Dobbs has only two career starts, and Petzing has never called plays before, so this offense and Dobbs could be bad.
He (Dobbs) has the slightest of holds on the starting job, and if he’s bad or this game gets out of hand, he could legit get benched even though it’s Week 1.
I expect the Cardinals to try to play with a ball-control style, given that RB James Conner is probably the best offensive player they have, so Dobbs might not get that many attempts.
And, when he gets pass attempts, I doubt he’s going to be efficient.
- He has minimal pass-catching support.
- His weapons are subpar.
- And he has a challenging matchup.
I expect him to be under steady pressure from a Commanders defense that was No. 1 in dropback success rate last year.
The range of outcomes easily skews to the downside here: If Dobbs goes over, I think he’ll barely do it.
If he goes under, he could have around 100 yards in a realistic worst-case scenario.
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