The gambling gods giveth and taketh. Last week I was 7-0 against the spread … but I also had my worst prop betting performance of the past couple of months.
Fortunately, I was still in the green, which makes eight straight weeks of prop profitability.
- Week 5: 8-5, +2.7 units
- Week 6: 17-10, +5.2 units
- Week 7: 20-12, +5.9 units
- Week 8: 22-13, +8.0 units
- Week 9: 16-13, +1.3 units
- Week 10: 20-15, +3.0 units
- Week 11: 23-16, +4.9 units
- Week 12: 10-8, +1.2 units
Let’s see how far we can stretch this streak.
Several reminders:
- Bet Tracker: You can find these five props -- and many more -- in our 100% FREE Fantasy Life bet tracker.
- Discord: When I’m posting bets in our tracker, I will sometimes jump into the “Free Picks” channel of our Discord and let everyone know that I’m putting up plays. Join our Discord (again, it’s free).
- Projections: You can find my player projections in the Fantasy Life projections tool! In my experience, these projections are useful for both betting props and making fantasy start/sit decisions.
- Prop Tool: The Fantasy Life prop tool now contains my player projections (as well as our official projections) and compares them to the lines in the prop market to show the bets that we think offer the most opportunity. It’s a great resource.
- Lines Move: Lines can and often do move, and we update our projections regularly, just in case there’s a difference between what you see in the market or on the site versus what you see in this article.
Preamble given, here are five player props I like for Week 13.
Christian McCaffrey Anytime TD (-210, FanDuel)
- My Projection: -247.6
- Cutoff: -225
I’m not trying to be a hero. It feels a little cheap to bet CMC ATD for multiple weeks in a row, but what can I say? I see value in the line.
Plus, I get to use the same blurb over and over.
In McCaffrey’s 25 games with the 49ers since joining the team via midseason trade last year, he has scored 29 TDs.
In all but four of his 49ers games he has hit paydirt (84%). This year, he has scored in every game but one (90.9%).
He has a league-high 49 redzone carries as well as 12 redzone targets.
At -210, McCaffrey has a 67.7% implied probability of scoring a TD this week (per our Fantasy Life Odds Calculator), and I have his true odds of scoring projected at 71.2%.
The TD market tends to be overjuiced -- but McCaffrey is one of the few TD bets that consistently offers value.
You can tail McCaffrey on FanDuel, where you can get $150 in bonus bets when you place your first bet of at least $5 if your team wins! Sign up below to start betting today:
Justin Herbert Over 0.5 INTs (+130, bet365)
- My Projection: +113.2
- Cutoff: +125
Here’s another profitable retread.
I think the books simply do not appreciate the consistency with which Herbert turns the ball over.
Bills QB Josh Allen gets lambasted for his league-high 13 INTs, but Herbert actually has worse accuracy numbers this year.
- Justin Herbert: 58 bad throws | 14.8% bad throw rate
- Josh Allen: 48 bad throws | 11.6% bad throw rate
I’m not saying that Herbert is careless or reckless with the ball, but he’s willing to take risks, and the Chargers often need him to be aggressive. Hence, INTs.
It’s not uncommon for rookies -- even good rookies -- to have elevated INT rates, but in the almost three full years following his first NFL season, Herbert has 31 INTs in 46 games (including playoffs).
In 25 of his post-2020 outings (54.3%), he has an INT.
In general, it’s about a coin flip each game for Herbert to throw an INT -- just based on his established baseline. But in this game we’re getting +130, which has an implied probability of 43.5%.
That’s simply too low, especially against the Patriots, who no longer have a feared defensive unit but do have an INT in five of their six games since Week 6, when CB J.C. Jackson entered the starting lineup shortly after the team traded for him.
Kalif Raymond Over 16.5 Receiving Yards (-110, bet365)
- My Projection: 20.2
- Cutoff: 18.5
In only two games this year has Raymond had a route rate of at least 50%, and since the Week 9 bye he has held steady with route rates of 33%, 32%, and 34% (per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report).
He’s just a situational player as the No. 4 WR.
Is it a smidge degenerate to bet the over -- or to bet at all! -- on a No. 4 WR?
Yes.
But it’s intelligently degenerate.
For the year, Raymond has a solid 20% target rate, and since the bye it has jumped up to an Amon-Ra St. Brown-like 28%. Raymond isn’t just a windsprinter. When he’s on the field, he has a decent chance to see targets.
And since joining the Lions in 2021 he has averaged 9.3 yards per target. This year, he’s at 10.9.
And that means he doesn’t need to see even that many targets to have a good chance of going over 16.5, which he has done in nine of 11 games.
This week, the Saints will be without No. 1 CB Marshon Lattimore (ankle, IR) and maybe also FS Marcus Maye (shoulder), and in the Superdome the Lions offense will be unburdened with any possible weather issues.
Just last week, Raymond turned five targets into 90 yards. If he goes over 16.5, he could do so in a big way, so he’s a candidate for ladder bets.
You can tail this over at bet365, where you can get $365 in bonus bets when you sign up for your new account below and place your first bet of only $1!
Sam Howell Over 38.5 Pass Attempts (-110, bet365)
- My Projection: 36.1.
- Cutoff: 39.5
This is the first bet all year where I’m going directly against my model and projection.
But I love this bet.
I think it’s hard for my projections to catch up to just how committed to the passing game the Commanders are.
This year, they’re No. 2 in pass frequency over expected (8%) and No. 3 in early-down pass rate (62.2%, per RBs Don’t Matter).
Oct 1, 2023; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Washington Commanders quarterback Sam Howell (14) throws pass under pressure from Philadelphia Eagles linebacker Haason Reddick (7) during the fourth quarter at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
As +9.5 underdogs in a game with a week-high 49.5 total, the Commanders will likely need to throw to keep pace with the Dolphins, and I don’t think that will be a problem for Howell, who leads the league with 40.5 pass attempts per game.
And the team has ramped up his passing volume as the season has progressed. In Weeks 1-6, he had 35.7 attempts per game. Since Week 7, he has had at least 42 attempts in each game with an average of 45.3.
The weather isn’t forecast for perfection, but it’s also not terrible. Right now, there’s about a 50% chance of precipitation, but it looks like showers instead of heavy rain, the low temperature is expected to be 46 degrees, and the wind is projected for less than eight miles per hour.
I hate betting against my projection, but I’m getting major over vibes from Howell.
Tucker Kraft Under 26.5 Receiving Yards (-110, bet365)
- My Projection: 23.8.
- Cutoff: 25.5 (-120)
Even with No. 1 TE Luke Musgrave (abdomen, IR) out -- and with his career-high 88% route rate -- the small-school rookie Kraft saw just two targets last week on a 7% target rate.
Now, you might think that a 7% target rate is too low and unrepresentative of what we’ll see from Kraft moving forward.
Maybe.
But Kraft’s target rate for the season is also 7%.
To this point, he has simply not been an important part of the passing offense. He has never had more than three targets in a game, and his average of 6.5 yards per target is mediocre.
Even if Kraft has a career-high four targets, there’s still a decent chance the under could hit.
