Last week, I paid the prop vig for the first time since Week 4, going 8-7 (-0.07 units).
For the eight weeks before that, the gambling gods had been generous with my prop investments.
- Week 5: 8-5, +2.7 units
- Week 6: 17-10, +5.2 units
- Week 7: 20-12, +5.9 units
- Week 8: 22-13, +8.0 units
- Week 9: 16-13, +1.3 units
- Week 10: 20-15, +3.0 units
- Week 11: 23-16, +4.9 units
- Week 12: 10-8, +1.2 units
Let’s see if I can hit the green this week.
Several reminders:
- Bet Tracker: You can find these five props -- and many more -- in our 100% FREE Fantasy Life bet tracker.
- Discord: When I’m posting bets in our tracker, I will sometimes jump into the “Free Picks” channel of our Discord and let everyone know that I’m putting up plays. Join our Discord (again, it’s free).
- Projections: You can find my player projections in the Fantasy Life projections tool! In my experience, these projections are useful for both betting props and making fantasy start/sit decisions.
- Prop Tool: The Fantasy Life prop tool now contains my player projections (as well as our official projections) and compares them to the lines in the prop market to show the bets that we think offer the most opportunity. It’s a great resource.
- Lines Move: Lines can and often do move, and we update our projections regularly, just in case there’s a difference between what you see in the market or on the site versus what you see in this article.
Preamble given, here are five player props I like for Week 14.
Christian McCaffrey Anytime TD (-330, FanDuel)
- My Projection: -583.5
- Cutoff: -500
The weekly CMC ATD bet is basically a tradition at this point. I can’t imagine not using it in 49ers same-game parlays.
In McCaffrey’s 26 games with the 49ers since joining the team via midseason trade last year, he has scored 30 TDs.
In all but four of his 49ers games, he has hit paydirt (84.6%). This year, he has scored in every game but one (91.7%).
He has a league-high 51 redzone carries as well as 12 redzone targets.
At -330, McCaffrey has a 76.7% implied probability of scoring a TD this week (per our Fantasy Life Odds Calculator), and I have his true odds of scoring projected at 85.4%.
Based on the official Unabated Lines (the best representation of a market-making sportsbook consensus), the 49ers are implied for 28.75 points. If they indeed have a score that high, it will be hard for McCaffrey not to find the endzone.
The TD market tends to be overjuiced -- but McCaffrey is one of the few TD bets that consistently offers value.
You can tail the McCaffrey TD at FanDuel, where you can get $150 in bonus bets after placing your first $5 bet on a team if they win when you sign up below!
Justin Herbert Over 0.5 INTs (+160, bet365)
- My Projection: +110.3
- Cutoff: +130
Here’s another profitable retread.
The books simply do not appreciate the consistency with which Herbert turns the ball over.
Since his second season, Herbert has 31 INTs in 47 games (including playoffs).
In 25 of his post-rookie starts (53.2%), he has an INT.
In general, it’s about a coin flip each game for Herbert to throw an INT -- just based on his established baseline. But in this game, we’re getting +160, which has an implied probability of 38.5%.
That’s too low, especially against the Broncos, who have captured 10 INTs in eight of 12 games.
C.J. Stroud Over 9.5 Rushing Yards (-110, bet365)
- My Projection: 14.1
- Cutoff: 12.5
Stroud is 8-4 to the over on his rushing yardage prop, averaging 11.9 yards rushing per game.
With defensive-minded HC Robert Saleh, the Jets have allowed opposing QBs to pick up yards on the ground (per game).
- 2023: 23.9
- 2022: 19.2
- 2021: 17.5
In 12 games, only three starting QBs have failed to go over 9.5 rushing yards against the Jets this year.
While Stroud isn’t an elite running QB, he’s certainly competent, and he could have extra incentive to scramble instead of throw this week given the possible weather situation at MetLife Stadium, where the Sunday forecast calls for heavy rain and wind of 15 miles per hour.
You can tail both Herbert and Stroud at bet365, where you can take advantage of $365 in bonus bets when you place your first bet of only $1!
Patrick Mahomes Under 32.5 Rushing Yards (-110, DraftKings)
- My Projection: 23.7
- Cutoff: 29.5
Last week, Mahomes’ rushing yardage prop was 20.5. The highest it has been this year is 26.5. The highest it was last year was 27.5.
Mahomes is underappreciated as a runner -- but 32.5 is so out of line with his established market and also reality: Mahomes this year is having the best rushing campaign of his career (27.6 yards per game) -- and even so he has gone over 32.5 in only three of 12 games.
Dec 3, 2023; Green Bay, Wisconsin, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) scrambles with the football during the fourth quarter against the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
It’s not as if the Bills are notably vulnerable to QB rushing production. They’ve allowed 19.3 yards rushing per game to QB this year, and in only one game have they allowed a QB to go over 32.5.
So why is this number so high?
My theory: The one game the Bills allowed a QB to go over 32.5 was their most recent one, when Jalen Hurts turned 14 carries into 65 yards rushing (27 of which came in overtime). Also, in Mahomes’ five starts against the Bills -- two of which have been in the postseason -- he has 192 yards rushing on 34 carries.
In other words, recency bias and specificity bias. I think that’s why this line is so high.
By the way, I don’t know if “specificity bias” is officially a thing, but it should be.
You can tail Mahomes at DraftKings, where you can get $150 in bonus bets INSTANTLY when you sign up and place your first bet of at least $5 below!
Quez Watkins Under 20.5 Receiving Yards (-125, PointsBet)
- My Projection: 11.1
- Cutoff: 17.5
Watkins has gone over this number once in five games this year. Granted, that was last week, when he had season-high marks with four targets and three receptions, which he converted into 28 yards.
But two of those targets and receptions and 20 of those yards came in the fourth quarter, when the Eagles trailed by more than three TDs.
I don’t think his Week 13 usage and production represents what we’ll see in Week 14, especially since TE Dallas Goedert (forearm) is likely to return this week after getting in back-to-back full practices on Wednesday and Thursday.
With Goedert back alongside top WRs A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, there isn’t much room in the passing game for Watkins.
