Freedman's Props. Best Player Prop Bets for NFL Week 15.
Last week, I had my most profitable prop session of the season: 27-16 (+10.0 units).
Ups and downs, etc., etc., but it was good to get a week like that in the bank.
For the season, I’m 217-167 (+32.3 units) on all NFL props.
With one month to go, I’d like to get that number up to +40 by the time we reach the playoffs.
Here are five of my favorite player props in the Sunday and Monday games for Week 15.
Several reminders:
- Bet Tracker: You can find these five props -- and many more -- in our 100% FREE Fantasy Life bet tracker.
- Discord: When I’m posting bets in our tracker, I will sometimes jump into the “Free Picks” channel of our Discord and let everyone know that I’m putting up plays. Join our Discord (again, it’s free).
- Projections: You can find my player projections in the Fantasy Life projections tool! In my experience, these projections are useful for both betting props and making fantasy start/sit decisions.
- Prop Tool: The Fantasy Life prop tool now contains my player projections (as well as our official projections) and compares them to the lines in the prop market to show the bets that we think offer the most opportunity. It’s a great resource.
- Lines Move: Lines can and often do move, and we update our projections regularly, just in case there’s a difference between what you see in the market or on the site versus what you see in this article.
Preamble given, here are five player props I like for Week 13.
Bryce Young Over 28.5 Pass Attempts (-120, bet365)
- My Projection: 30.8
- Cutoff: 29.5
Young is 7-5 to the over for his pass attempt prop, so it’s not as if the market has been consistently wrong about him.
But this number feels so off.
Not once this season -- not in a single game -- has Young gone under 28.5 pass attempts. His average is 34.8 and median is 34.5.
In his two games without former HC Frank Reich, he has averaged 33.5 pass attempts.
His prop of 28.5 is exactly what it was in Week 1, when Young had 38 pass attempts against the Falcons, and he hasn’t had a prop lower than 28.5 all season.
For the season, the Falcons have held opposing QBs to fewer than 28.5 pass attempts in just two of 13 games. On average, QBs have 32.9 pass attempts per game against them.
I have no idea why this number is where it is.
Rachaad White Over 19.5 Receiving Yards (-110, bet365)
- My Projection: 25.8
- Cutoff: 22.5
In Week 1, White’s receiving yardage prop line was exactly where it is now: 19.5.
But since then he has gone over this number in 10 of 13 games, and his prop total just three weeks ago was a season-high 29.5, so this is something of a buy-low spot.
White is the No. 3 RB in the league with his 419 receiving yards, and he trails only Christian McCaffrey (81%, 79%) with his 80% snap rate and 72% route rate (per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report).
Dec 10, 2023; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Rachaad White (1) runs for a touchdown against the Atlanta Falcons in the second half at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
The Buccaneers are road underdogs of more than a field goal to the Packers, so they could have more of a pass-leaning game script, and White has notable per-game win/loss receiving splits.
- Seven Losses: 36.4 receiving yards | 4.4 receptions | 4.7 targets
- Six Losses: 27.3 receiving yards | 2.8 receptions | 3.3 targets
The Packers have allowed an average of 6.5 targets, 4.8 receptions, and 28.2 receiving yards per game to opposing RBs.
In each of their past four games, the Packers have held Austin Ekeler (6 vs. 33.5), Jahmyr Gibbs (19 vs. 28.5), Isaiah Pacheco (13 vs. 20.5), and Saquon Barkley (15 vs. 18.5) under their prop totals, so that has probably helped to drive this number down -- but I think much of their recent pass defense success against RBs has been circumstantial, so I weigh their season-long stats more than their recent form.
Regardless, 19.5 is a low number for a player with White’s pass-catching talent (7.9 yards per target).
You can tail the overs on Bryce Young and White at bet365, where you can get $365 in bonus bets when you sign up for a new account below and place your first bet of at least $1!
Kadarius Toney Under 14.5 Receiving Yards (-110, DraftKings)
- My Projection: 12.7
- Cutoff: 14.5 (-130)
Last week, the Chiefs gave Toney a season-high 44% snap rate and 17 routes. I probably don’t need to tell you what happened.
The Chiefs lost, in large part because of Toney -- and that’s the second time we can say that this year.
Toney has an average of 13.7 receiving yards per game and median of 12.5 this year, so I naturally lean to the under anyway, but there’s also a chance that the Chiefs will dramatically curtail his usage moving forward, at least in the short term, to ensure that he doesn’t sabotage any more outcomes with his unique brand of carelessness.
You can tail the Toney under on DraftKings, where you can get up to $1,000 in DK Dollars when you sign up and place your first bet of at least $5 below!
James Cook Under 12.5 Carries (-110, PointsBet)
- My Projection: 11.4
- Cutoff: 11.5 (at plus odds)
On its face, nothing is wrong with this number. Cook has a mean of 12.5 carries per game and median of 13 this year.
The Bills are favorites, and Cook has 14.1 carries per game in the team’s seven wins. Plus, the Bills could lean on the running game more than we might expect given that the Cowboys are No. 31 in defensive rush SR (43.5%, per RBs Don’t Matter).
Cook is actually one of my Week 15 fantasy favorites, so it’s not as if I think this is a clear fade spot.
But since the team dismissed OC Ken Dorsey and promoted QBs coach Joe Brady to playcaller, Cook has seen a decline in his playing time and rushing usage.
- Weeks 1-10 (10 games): 56% snap rate | 54% rush share
- Weeks 11-14 (three games): 45% snap rate | 45% rush share
Cook has still been productive under Brady (343 yards, two TDs), and his receiving talent (8.9 yards per target) and beefed-up pass-catching role (31% target rate since Week 11) give him a high floor -- but he had just 10 carries last week in 20-17 must-win game against the Chiefs, and he could have a similar rushing workload this week.
Jalen Hurts Over 0.5 INTs (+135, bet365)
- My Projection: +105.5
- Cutoff: +120
At +135, Hurts has an implied probability of 42.6% to throw an INT in this game, but I have his true probability at 48.7% (per our Fantasy Life Odds Calculator).
He has 10 INTs in 7 of 13 games this year, and the Seahawks have a middle-of-the-road nine INTs.
That this game is in Seattle is significant. The Seahawks have one of the league’s best historical home-field advantages, and Hurts has had notable home/road splits for his career …
- Home (29 games): 10 INTs | 1.5% INT rate
- Road (29 games): 19 INTs | 2.3% INT rate
… and especially for this season.
- Home (six games): 3 INTs | 1.6% INT rate
- Road (seven games): 7 INTs | 2.9% INT rate
Outside of Philadelphia, Hurts is a notably different QB.
