I promise you that no more than three of the plays I highlight in this piece will be kicker props.
Several reminders:
- Bet Tracker: You can find these five props -- and many more -- in our 100% FREE Fantasy Life bet tracker.
- Discord: When I’m posting bets in our tracker, I will sometimes jump into the “Free Picks” channel of our Discord and let everyone know that I’m putting up plays. Join our Discord (again, it’s free).
- Projections: You can find my player projections in the Fantasy Life projections tool! In my experience, these projections are useful for both betting props and making fantasy start/sit decisions.
- Prop Tool: The Fantasy Life prop tool now contains my player projections (as well as our official projections) and compares them to the lines in the prop market to show the bets that we think offer the most opportunity. It’s a great resource.
- Lines Move: Lines can and often do move, and we update our projections regularly, just in case there’s a difference between what you see in the market or on the site versus what you see in this article.
Preamble given, here are five of my favorite player props in the Sunday and Monday games for Week 16.
Raheem Mostert Anytime TD (-115, FanDuel)
- My Projection: -122.1
- Cutoff: -120
There’s not much difference between my projection and the best line available in this market,
At -115, Mostert has an implied probability of 53.5% to score a TD in this game, but I have his true probability at 55.0% (per our Fantasy Life Odds Calculator) -- and I believe I’m probably too low on him.
Dolphins-Cowboys easily has the week’s highest total at 50.5, so we could see a lot of points put up in this game.
The Dolphins are home favorites, so they could have more of a run-leaning game script than usual -- especially since the Cowboys are No. 32 in defensive rush SR (45.3%, per RBs Don’t Matter).
Mostert leads the league with 20 TDs and has scored in 11 of 14 games (78.6%). In the five games since the Week 10 bye, he has seven TDs and has found the endzone in every game but one.
He’s one of my Week 16 fantasy favorites, and given what we saw last week out of James Cook against the Cowboys (25-179-1 rushing, 2-42-1 receiving), it’s hard to imagine Mostert not having success this week.
You can tail the Mostert TD bet at FanDuel, where you can get $150 in bonus bets when you sign up below and place your first bet of just $5 or more!
Kalif Raymond Over 10.5 Receiving Yards (-110, bet365)
- My Projection: 15.5
- Cutoff: 12.5
I’ve made some disgusting bets this year.
This one might be the most disgusting.
But Raymond has gone over this number in 11 of 14 games, and he has an average of 10.2 yards per target this year and 9.9 since last year.
Basically, I’m hoping that Raymond has two-plus targets. In his ten games with that volume, he has gone over nine times. And even with just one target, this bet still has a chance to cash on account of Raymond’s playmaking efficiency: In three games with a lone target, he has gone over 10.5 twice.
This is a buy-low spot in the market: 10.5 is the lowest Raymond’s yardage prop has been over the past two years.
Raymond is just a part-time role player, but he still had a 31% route rate last week, and since the Week 9 bye, he has a 22% target rate (per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report).
Asking for at least two targets is not a lot.
You can tail the Raymond over at bet365, where you can get $365 in bonus bets after signing up and placing your first bet of just $1 or more below:
Russell Wilson Over 27.5 Pass Attempts (+100, DraftKings)
- My Projection: 30.2
- Cutoff: 28.5
The forecast for Sunday Night Football calls for snow, but the wind is projected for less than 10 mph at kickoff, and that weather probably isn’t severe enough to force the Broncos to abandon the passing game.
Despite HC Sean Payton’s desire to minimize Wilson’s impact and role in the offense, he has gone over 27.5 pass attempts in 10 of 14 games and averaged 29.3 per game. Since the Week 9 bye, his per-game pass volume has actually kicked up slightly to 29.5.
Oct 29, 2023; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson (3) celebrates a touchdown pass in the fourth quarter against the Kansas City Chiefs at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
The matchup is tough against the Patriots -- but they’re the definition of a pass funnel: The Patriots are No. 1 in defensive rush EPA (-0.216) and SR (31.0%). Running against them will be almost pointless for the Broncos, and Payton is sharp enough as a coach to know that (I think).
But the Pats can be passed on: They’re Nos. 21 & 23 in defensive dropback EPA (0.067) and SR (46.9%).
The Patriots have allowed QBs to average 34.7 pass attempts this year, and in only two games has an opponent not had at least 27.5 passes against them.
At no point this year has Wilson’t attempts prop been lower than 27.5.
You can tail Wilson at DraftKings, where you can get up to $1,000 in DK Dollars when you sign up and place your first bet of at least $5 below!
Jalen Hurts Over 0.5 INTs (+160, bet365)
- My Projection: +120.4
- Cutoff: +140
Hurts has not been at his best this year, and now he has a short week of rest following a post-Monday Night Football cross-country trip from Seattle to Philadelphia.
In 14 games this year, Hurts has 12 INTs on a 2.6% INT rate, which is the highest mark he has had throughout his nearly three seasons as a starter.
The Giants have an aggressive defense with 13 INTs, all of which have come since Week 5.
The Eagles should win as big home favorites, and Hurts has a better than 50% chance to avoid an INT -- but the +160 odds are just too tempting to pass up given that he has thrown an INT in eight of 14 games.
Christian McCaffrey Anytime TD (-208, FanDuel)
- My Projection: -282.6
- Cutoff: -250
In what could be the game of the year, the 49ers are hosting the Ravens in primetime on December 25.
There’s no way I won’t have a bet on this game in some fashion, and it would literally (figuratively) be un-American (or at least unpoetic) not to have action on a dude named “Christian” on this of all holy days.
McCaffrey has a league-high 20 TDs (as well as a league-high 301 touches and 1,801 yards from scrimmage). He has scored in all but two of 14 games this year.
The frontrunner for Offensive Player of the Year (-150, Caesars), McCaffrey offers value in the TD market every week.
