Last week I was 21-12 (+7.0 units) on props.
For the year, I’m 248-203 (+25.6 units), including the +195 anytime TD that Breece Hall just scored in the Browns-Jets TNF game that’s going in the background as I write this piece.
No guarantees, but it has been an acceptably profitable season so far, and I think we’ll be able to keep that going as the year winds down and the playoffs approach.
Several reminders:
- Bet Tracker: You can find these five props -- and many more -- in our 100% FREE Fantasy Life bet tracker.
- Discord: When I’m posting bets in our tracker, I will sometimes jump into the “Free Picks” channel of our Discord and let everyone know that I’m putting up plays. Join our Discord (again, it’s free).
- Projections: You can find my player projections in the Fantasy Life projections tool! In my experience, these projections are useful for both betting props and making fantasy start/sit decisions.
- Prop Tool: The Fantasy Life prop tool now contains my player projections (as well as our official projections) and compares them to the lines in the prop market to show the bets that we think offer the most opportunity. It’s a great resource.
- Lines Move: Lines can and often do move, and we update our projections regularly, just in case there’s a difference between what you see in the market or on the site versus what you see in this article.
Preamble given, here are five of my favorite player props for the Week 17 Sunday games.
Christian McCaffrey Anytime TD (-370, FanDuel)
- My Projection: -969.5
- Cutoff: -500
I haven’t bet this yet (as of Thursday night), because this line is currently live at only a couple sportsbooks and I’m waiting for more options. I’ve noticed that the earliest books to release McCaffrey’s anytime TD market tend to open with lines that skew high.
But regardless of wherever this line goes, I’m likely to be an investor in CMC ATD, as I have been for months now.
I tend to think of the TD markets in general as being overly juiced, but McCaffrey offers value literally every week.
At -370, McCaffrey has an implied probability of 78.7% to score a TD in this game, and that number is high … but I have his true probability at 90.6% (per our Fantasy Life Odds Calculator).
On its face, it’s ridiculous to project any NFL player to have a 90.6% chance of scoring a TD. That said, McCaffrey leads the league with 21 TDs and 57 red zone carries. (He also has 14 red zone targets).
He has scored in 13 of 15 games (86.7%), and the 49ers have a league-high 31-point implied team total this week, based on their betting lines.
The Commanders have allowed RBs to score 17 TDs in 15 games, and I expect the 49ers to feature McCaffrey heavily in a bounceback game for the team.
He’s one of my Week 17 fantasy favorites, and I even like the idea of betting on McCaffrey to score multiple TDs, which he has done five times this year.
You can tail the McCaffrey ATD at FanDuel, where you can get $150 in bonus bets when you sign up and place your first bet of at least $5 below:
Tua Tagovailoa Over 235.5 Passing Yards (-110, bet365)
- My Projection: 255.5
- Cutoff: 245.5
In the words of Steve Martin, “George Banks is saying ‘no.’”
This line is simply too low.
Different circumstances, I know, but last year Tagovailoa passed for 469 yards against the Ravens in Week 2.
And as great as the Ravens were against the 49ers last week in forcing five INTs, they still allowed QBs Brock Purdy and Sam Darnold to put up 336 yards passing.
The Ravens have held QBs to just 221.9 passing yards per game -- but they’ve also faced a slew of rookies, backups, and bottom-feeders for much of the season. Since the Week 13 bye, however, they’ve allowed 294 yards to Matthew Stafford, 264 yards to Trevor Lawrence, and the aforementioned 336 yards to Purdy and Darnold.
The Ravens aren’t defensively immaculate, and they might be without secondary starters in CB Brandon Stephens (ankle) and S Kyle Hamilton (knee).
As for Tagovailoa, he’s No. 1 in the league with 4,214 yards passing and No. 2 with 8.5 yards per attempt. He has gone over 235.5 passing yards in all but three games, and this is the second-lowest yardage prop of his year. Just three weeks ago, his prop was a season-high 284.5.
The matchup with the Ravens is tough -- but it’s not that tough.
You can tail Tua's passing prop at bet365, where you can get $365 in bonus bets when you sign up below and place your first bet of just $1 or more:
Jalen Hurts Over 0.5 INTs (+165, bet365)
- My Projection: +123.5
- Cutoff: +140
I’m going to say almost the same thing this week that I said last week -- because this is my third week in a row betting on Hurts to throw an INT.
In 14 games this year, he has 13 INTs in 15 games on a 2.6% INT rate, which is the highest mark he has had throughout his nearly three seasons as a starter.
Sep 14, 2023; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (1) passes the ball against the Minnesota Vikings during the third quarter at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
The Cardinals don’t have a great defense. In fact, it’s bad. They're No. 32 in defensive dropback EPA (0.178) and success rate (50.9%, per RBs Don’t Matter).
But their 10 INTs on the season isn't terrible (the league average is 11.8, the median is 13), and they might have a theoretical edge given that HC Jonathan Gannon was Eagles DC for the 2021-22 seasons and knows Hurts better than probably any other defensive-minded coach.
The Eagles should win as big home favorites, and Hurts has a better than 50% chance to avoid an INT -- but the +165 odds are just too tempting to pass up given that he has thrown an INT in nine of 15 games.
Lucas Havrisik Over 1.5 FGs (-120, DraftKings)
- My Projection: 2.2
- Cutoff: -150
I don’t even know how to pronounce this guy’s last name, but I bet the over on his FG prop last week on TNF, and he delivered: Three FGs -- and he could’ve had five if not for a missed 47-yard attempt and an uncharacteristic decision by HC Sean McVay to go for it on 4th-and-goal from the two-yard line.
So I’m betting on him again, given my robust 100% success rate.
For the year, the Rams are by far No. 1 in the league with 2.9 FG attempts per game. No other team is even close to that. (The Seahawks are No. 2 at 2.5, and the league average is 2.0.)
And the Giants are slightly above average with 2.1 FG attempts allowed per game.
Even with his subpar 75% conversion rate, Havrisik has a good chance to go over 1.5 FGs if he gets two attempts -- and he has had at least two attempts in seven of eight games.
You can tail Havrisik's FG prop on DraftKings, where you can get up to $1,000 in DK Dollars when you sign up below and place your first bet of $5 or more:
Brandon McManus Under 1.5 FGs (+105, DraftKings)
- My Projection: 1.1
- Cutoff: -125
Another FG prop? Yes.
By the way, have I mentioned that I spent a significant chunk of my Christmas “leisure” time this past weekend researching FG production and building a kicking model?
The Jaguars have a slightly above-average 2.1 FG attempts per game -- but they’re facing the Panthers, who are No. 1 in fewest FG attempts allowed (1.3).
And the Panthers are No. 2 in percentage of total points allowed via FGs (14.2%). When teams score on the Panthers, they typically don’t do so via the kicking game.
On top of that, McManus has a subpar 77.4% FG rate this year after having a similar 77.8% conversion mark last year.
As a result, McManus has had an underwhelming season: In his 15 games, he has gone over 1.5 FGs just six times.
Given the matchup and McManus’ 2023 performance, the under looks highly attractive … if you’re the kind of sicko who bets on kicker props.
