Last week, I bet over 1.5 FGs for Eagles K Jake Elliott.

In the fourth quarter, with one FG already made, Elliott hit his second of the game -- a 40-yard attempt on 4th-and-10 -- but the Buccaneers were offside, the Eagles nullified the play by accepting the penalty, and then they failed to convert on 4th-and-5.

Elliott never stepped on the field again.

That’s how my prop betting week went.

I swear to the gambling gods, I will never bet FG props again, until the next time I do it.

Several reminders:

  • Bet Tracker: You can find these five props -- and many more -- in our 100% FREE Fantasy Life bet tracker.
     
  • Discord: When I’m posting bets in our tracker, I will sometimes jump into the “Free Picks” channel of our Discord and let everyone know that I’m putting up plays. Join our Discord (again, it’s free).
     
  • Projections: You can find my player projections in the Fantasy Life Projections Tool! In my experience, these projections are useful for both betting props and making fantasy start/sit decisions.
     
  • Prop Tool & Prop Finder: The Fantasy Life Prop Tool contains my player projections (as well as our official projections) and compares them to the lines in the prop market to show the bets that we think offer the most opportunity. It’s a great resource. And there’s also the Fantasy Life Prop Finder, which allows you to see easily all the props for any given player and the books that offer the best lines.
     
  • Lines Move: Lines can and often do move, and we update our projections regularly, just in case there’s a difference between what you see in the market or on the site versus what you see in this article.

Preamble given, here are four props I like for Super Wild Card Weekend, one for each game.

C.J. Stroud Over 8.5 Rushing Yards (-110, BetMGM)

  • My Projection: 10.3
  • Cutoff: 9.5

The Texans are +9.5 underdogs, and I expect that to impact his rushing production based on his averages so far.

  • Underdog (seven games): 14.9 rushing yards
  • Underdog of at least +3 (four games): 14.5 rushing yards
  • Losses (six games): 13.0 rushing yards
  • Losses of at least -3 (four games): 15.75 rushing yards

The Ravens have allowed QBs to rush for 16.8 yards per game, and Stroud had 20 yards rushing against the Ravens in Week 1.

You can tail the over at BetMGM, where you can get $158 in bonus bets when you sign up using code FANTASYLIFE and place your first bet of just $5 below!

Christian McCaffrey Anytime TD + Under 126.5 Scrimmage Yards (+174, FanDuel)

  • My Projection: -572.5 ATD, 117.2 Scrimmage Yards.
  • Cutoff: +150

I talked about this bet on the Fantasy Life Playoffs Show this week.

If you’ve been reading this article regularly, you know that I’ve been a regular CMC ATD investor this season.

Usually, I find the TD markets to be overly juiced, but McCaffrey offers value literally every week.

Despite exiting Week 17 early with an injury and not playing in Week 18, McCaffrey has scored an NFL-high 21 TDs this year in 16 games, and he also leads the league in red zone opportunities (63 carries, 16 targets).

At FanDuel, McCaffrey's anytime TD is priced at -350, which has an implied probability of 77.8%, but I have his true odds of scoring at 85.1%. So on its own, I think the anytime TD bet offers value.

But I like putting it in a same-game parlay even more with the under on McCaffrey’s scrimmage yards.

In general, yards and TDs are correlated, and that makes sense, as it’s literally impossible to score a TD without getting at least one yard on the play. The more yards, the more TDs, and vice versa. It’s not a coincidence that McCaffrey led the league this regular season in TDs and also scrimmage yards (2,023).

Christian McCaffrey

Dec 17, 2023; Glendale, Arizona, USA; San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey (23) against the Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

With -350 and -114 odds, the two legs of our parlay come out to +141 when combined (per our Fantasy Life Parlay Calculator).

But if you create two ATD + scrimmage yardage SGPs at FanDuel -- one with over 126.5, one under 126.5 -- you’ll see that the available odds are adjusted to account for the fact that the first SGP has two positively correlated legs while the second has inversely correlated legs.

  • Anytime TD (-350) + Over 126.5 Yards (-114): +104
  • Anytime TD (-350) + Under 126.5 Yards (-114): +174

Now here’s the reason I like this SGP: I don’t think the inverse correlation is as strong as the +174 odds suggest. In fact, I think these legs might actually be positively correlated -- or at least uncorrelated.

We’re in the playoffs. For the 49ers, this game is literally the most important one of the season … except for the next one … and hopefully the final one after that.

As -9.5 home favorites in a game with a 50.5 total, the 49ers easily lead the slate with an implied team total of 30 points.

They will almost certainly score multiple TDs in this game, and that gives McCaffrey an excellent chance of finding the endzone.

And since this is the most important game of the season, the 49ers will likely give McCaffrey some of the most important opportunities in the game. If the team runs goal-line plays, McCaffrey is likely to touch the ball on a high percentage of those plays.

At the same time, McCaffrey (calf) suffered an injury in Week 17, missed Week 18, and was still listed on the injury report throughout the week despite having the postseason bye to recover. He practiced in full and will certainly play this week, but the calf may be still a concern, and the guy led the league with 339 carries in the regular season.

It’s very possible that, while giving McCaffrey his usual allotment of high-leverage goal-line touches, the team will marginally but meaningfully scale back his usage to preserve him for the coming games.

And that could especially be the case if the 49ers get out to a big lead (which could happen, given the -9.5 spread). And it helps that they trust No. 2 RB Elijah Mitchell, who had 147 yards as an injury fill-in over the past two games.

McCaffrey is certainly capable of going over 126.5 scrimmage yards, and in most situations, the two legs of this SGP are inversely correlated -- but the postseason isn’t a usual situation.

You can tail the McCaffrey mini-parlay at FanDuel, where you can get $150 in bonus bets when you sign up below and place your first bet of just $5 or more!

Baker Mayfield Over 8.5 Rushing Yards (-110, bet365)

  • My Projection: 9.4
  • Cutoff: 8.5 (-125)

Mayfield throughout his career has probably overestimated his scrambling ability, but he has 9.2 rushing yards per game for his career and 9.6 this year, and his status as a +6.5 road dog could juice his production on the ground, based on his performance this year.

  • Underdog (11 games): 8.9 rushing yards
  • Underdog of at least +3 (seven games): 10.3 rushing yards
  • Losses (eight games): 10.1 rushing yards
  • Losses of at least -3 (seven games): 11.0 rushing yards

The Lions were No. 3 this season in most rushing yards allowed to QBs with 24.6 per game.

Plus, QBs in the postseason tend to play with a little more abandon, which can result in them scrambling when they otherwise might look to pass and fighting for extra yards when they might otherwise choose to go down.

And given that Mayfield (ankle, ribs) has practiced in full this week (unlike last week), I think he’s now well enough physically to be more aggressive as a runner.

You can tail the Mayfield over at bet365, where you can get $365 in bonus bets when you sign up below and place your first bet of $1 or more:

Josh Allen Over 0.5 INTs (-105, BetMGM)

  • My Projection: -133.5
  • Cutoff: -125

Allen has 18 INTs in 18 games this year (including playoffs). That could probably be the entire blurb, but I’ll keep going.

It’s not as if he’s throwing an INT every game, but it’s also not as if he threw 18 INTs in one game and then was pristine in the other 17 starts.

This year, Allen has thrown an INT in 77.8% of his games (all but four of them), but his -105 odds have an implied probability of just 51.2%.

That number is far too low.

There are some factors in Allen’s favor. Since Week 11, when the Bills dismissed OC Ken Dorsey and promoted QB coach Joe Brady to play-caller, they have been a less pass-happy team.

  • Weeks 1-10: 58.3% early-down pass rate | 5% pass frequency over expected
  • Since Week 11: 53.6% early-down pass rate | -3% pass frequency over expected

And they’re -2.5 home favorites, so maybe they’ll get out to a lead against the Chiefs and lean into the running game, which will limit the number of Allen’s attempts and keep him clean.

Even so, Allen has seven INTs in eight games with Brady calling plays. Despite the OC chance, Allen still throws picks -- because that’s what Allen does.

Against the Chiefs in Week 14, the Bills won 20-17 … and Allen threw an INT.

Even if the Bills win this weekend, Allen is likelier than not to commit an aerial turnover.

Freedman's Props