One day, two games, four teams: It’s Conference Championship Sunday.

The best day of football all year.

Except for maybe Thanksgiving -- because I have an excuse to eat as much pie as I want. Plus, the Cowboys play … and, as we all know, they never play in the NFC Championship.

But I digress.

Conference Championship Sunday: The best single day of football all season.

If we get lucky, I might be able to avoid betting any kicker props.

Several reminders:

  • Bet Tracker: You can find these five props -- and many more -- in our 100% FREE Fantasy Life bet tracker.
     
  • Discord: When I’m posting bets in our tracker, I will sometimes jump into the “Free Picks” channel of our Discord and let everyone know that I’m putting up plays. Join our Discord (again, it’s free).
     
  • Projections: You can find my player projections in the Fantasy Life Projections Tool! In my experience, these projections are useful for both betting props and making fantasy start/sit decisions.
     
  • Prop Tool & Prop Finder: The Fantasy Life Prop Tool contains my player projections (as well as our official projections) and compares them to the lines in the prop market to show the bets that we think offer the most opportunity. It’s a great resource. And there’s also the Fantasy Life Prop Finder, which allows you to see easily all the props for any given player and the books that offer the best lines.
     
  • Lines Move: Lines can and often do move, and we update our projections regularly, just in case there’s a difference between what you see in the market or on the site versus what you see in this article.

Preamble given, here are four player props, one for each team playing on Sunday.

Chiefs at Ravens Prop Bets

Isiah Pacheco Anytime TD (+140, FanDuel)

  • My Projection: +132.1
  • Cutoff: +120

I might regret this bet.

This year, the Ravens have allowed just eight TDs to RBs in 18 games. And Pacheco (ankle, toe) is dealing with injuries. I expect him to play, but he missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday and might be hindered on Sunday.

Even so, I expect him to have the locked-in goal-line role he has owned in the second half of the season without RB Jerick McKinnon (groin, IR). Since Week 12, Pacheco has had 87.5% of the team’s carries inside the five-yard line in his six McKinnon-less games (per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report).

And in the playoffs, Pacheco has had 100% of the team’s short down-and-distance snaps and inside-the-five carries.

Unsurprisingly, Pacheco has seven TDs with a score in each of his six games without McKinnon.

Even though I have Pacheco projected only at +132.1, that primarily has to do with his matchup, but I think his usage overrides it, so I’d be willing to be this below my projection if necessary.

You can tail Pacheco on FanDuel, where you can get $150 in bonus bets when you sign up below and place your first bet of just $5 or more!

Nelson Agholor Over 14.5 Receiving Yards (-110, bet365)

  • My Projection: 21.8
  • Cutoff: 16.5

I expect the Ravens to have a run-dominant offense this week given that they are -3.5 home favorites and facing a Chiefs defense that could be without DT Derrick Nnadi (tricep), LB Willie Gay (neck), and FS Mike Edwards (concussion) and is No. 8 in rush EPA (-0.031, per RBs Don’t Matter).

Even so, Agholor’s prop line strikes me as too low.

In Week 12, his line was 13.5, but his usage since the Week 13 bye has significantly increased, and I don’t think his prop line has adjusted enough.

  • Weeks 1-12: 52% route rate | 13% target rate | 8% target share
  • Since Week 13: 66% route rate | 14% target rate | 13% target share

Since Week 14, Agholor has averaged 3.5 targets with multiple targets in every game but one. With 8.0 yards per target this season, Agholor has a good chance to hit the over if he gets even just two targets.

In his 12 games with two-plus targets, he has gone over 14.5 receiving yards eight times (66.7%).

You can tail the Agholor over at bet365, where you can get $365 in bonus bets when you sign up below!

Lions at 49ers Prop Bets

David Montgomery Over 43.5 Rushing Yards (-109, Caesars)

  • My Projection: 48.8
  • Cutoff: 45.5

Montgomery has gone over 43.5 yards rushing in all but three games this year, and this prop line is the lowest mark he’s had all season.

And I understand why it’s low.

Over the past month, his workload and production have both markedly declined.

  • Weeks 1-16: 54% rush rate | 16.3 carries, 75.8 yards per game | 4.7 yards per carry
  • Since Week 17: 49% rush rate | 12 carries, 48.8 yards per game | 4.1 yards per carry
David Montgomery

Jan 21, 2024; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Detroit Lions running back David Montgomery (5) runs with the ball against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the first quarter in a 2024 NFC divisional round game at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Lon Horwedel-USA TODAY Sports

Neither LG Jonah Jackson (knee) nor C Frank Ragnow (ankle, toe, knee, back) has practiced this week, and the Lions as big road dogs might have a limited rushing attack out of necessity.

But the 49ers are No. 27 in defensive rush SR (41.9%), and I expect the Lions to attack them on the ground as often as they reasonably can in order to control the ball and keep the 49ers offense on the sideline.

If you give me a line of 43.5 for a guy who has 69.1 yards per game and an advantageous matchup, I’ll be inclined to bet the over.

You can tail Montgomery at Caesars, where you can get your first bet of up to $1,000 on the house when you create a new account below!

Christian McCaffrey Two-Plus TDs + Under 131.5 Scrimmage Yards (+475, FanDuel)

  • My Projection: +400 - 1.1 TDs, 121.4 Scrimmage Yards 
  • Cutoff: +450 or 127.5 Scrimmage Yards

I’m running it back with the CMC SGP, which I talked about on the Fantasy Life Show this week and bet last week.

With +145 and -115 odds, the two legs of our parlay come out to +358 when combined (per our Fantasy Life Parlay Calculator).

But if we create the SGP at DraftKings we get +475 odds because the sportsbook assumes that these two events -- McCaffrey scoring multiple TDs and hitting the under -- are inversely correlated.

And they probably are.

But I think the correlation likely isn’t as strong as the sportsbook (or the algorithm) assumes.

Despite exiting Week 17 early with injury and not playing in Week 18, McCaffrey in the regular season scored an NFL-high 21 TDs in 16 games, and he also led the league in redzone opportunities (63 carries, 16 targets).

And then he scored two TDs last week.

In 16 full games this year, McCaffrey has had multiple TDs six times.

This week, he’s likelier to score more than once instead of not at all.

But I don’t think McCaffrey’s redzone role is all that correlated to his larger role. Whether he has 15 or 30 opportunities for the game, what will most impact McCaffrey’s usage near the endzone is the total number of snaps the 49ers have near the goal line -- not his workload elsewhere on the field.

McCaffrey has gone under 131.5 scrimmage yards in half of his 16 full games, and in three of those eight (37.5%) he has had two TDs. Even when he doesn’t get many yards (relatively) he still can score multiple times.

At +475, this same-game parlay has a 17.4% implied probability, but I think the true odds are 20%, maybe 22% (per our Fantasy Life Odds Calculator).

Freedman's Props