Last week wasn’t perfect, but I was still profitable on props, which now gives me four consecutive weeks of being in the green.
- Week 6: 17-10, +5.2 units
- Week 7: 20-12, +5.9 units
- Week 8: 22-13, +8.0 units
- Week 9: 16-13, +1.3 units
Let’s see if I can keep it up.
Several reminders:
- Bet Tracker: You can find these five props -- and many more -- in our 100% FREE Fantasy Life bet tracker.
- Discord: When I’m posting bets in our tracker, I will sometimes jump into the “Free Picks” channel of our Discord and let everyone know that I’m putting up plays. Join our Discord (again, it’s free).
- Projections: You can find my player projections in the Fantasy Life projections tool! In my experience, these projections are useful for both betting props and making fantasy start/sit decisions.
- Prop Tool: The Fantasy Life prop tool now contains my player projections (as well as our official projections) and compares them to the lines in the prop market to show the bets that we think offer the most opportunity. It’s a great resource.
- Lines Move: Lines can and often do move, and we update our projections regularly, just in case there’s a difference between what you see in the market or on the site versus what you see in this article.
Preamble given, here are five player props I like for Week 9.
Christian McCaffrey Anytime TD (-185, DraftKings)
- My Projection: -216.6
- Cutoff: -200
I hate betting TD props. I almost never do it.
But McCaffrey is on the verge of making TD history: He is tied for the NFL record with a TD in 17 consecutive games (including playoffs).
In his 22 games with the 49ers since joining the team via midseason trade last year, he has scored 26 TDs. In all but three of his 49ers games has he found the endzone (86.4%). The last time he didn’t score a TD was Week 12 … almost a full calendar year ago.
The 49ers could make a big push to get McCaffrey sole possession of the record this week, and it’s not as if they’d be going out of their way to do so: They give him the ball as they approach the goal line. He leads the league with 35 redzone carries and also has six targets inside the 20-yard line.
At -185, McCaffrey has a 64.9% implied probability of scoring a TD this week, and I have his true odds of scoring projected at 68.4%.
That’s not a massive edge, but it’s enough for me to bet it -- and with TD props any edge at all is notable, given how much extra juice is normally infused in this market.
Plus, I’m getting a great discount to the market at -185, given that this same prop is as high as -278 at Caesars.
You can tail the McCaffrey TD value at DraftKings, where you can get $200 in bonus bets when you sign up and place your first bet of $5 or more below!
Taysom Hill Anytime TD (+290, BetMGM)
- My Projection: +221.4
- Cutoff: +250
I wasn’t planning on turning this into the “Anytime TD” article, but as of writing (Thu. 11/9 at 9:00 pm ET), the sportsbooks still haven’t opened a rushing market for Hill.
I’ve profitably bet the over on his rushing yardage prop in each of the past three weeks -- and I imagine that I’ll have action on it again once that market goes live, because the books still haven’t adjusted to his increased role in the Saints offense -- but for now I’ll pivot to his TD prop, which I think also offers value.
Hill has always been something of a vulture. Despite playing mainly as an all-around “offensive weapon” throughout his career, he has amassed five-plus TDs in each of his four most recent seasons.
- 2019: Seven TDs (1 rushing, 6 receiving)
- 2020: Nine TDs (8 rushing, 1 receiving)
- 2021: Five TDs (5 rushing)
- 2022: Nine TDs (7 rushing, 2 receiving)
This year he has four in nine games so he’s on pace for a typical campaign, and what’s notable is how his usage has increased over the past few weeks -- especially near the goal line.
Since Week 7, Hill has 25 carries and 11 targets. What’s more, 10 carries and three targets have been inside the 10-yard line, resulting in all four of the TDs he has scored this year. (He also had a three-yard passing TD last week. While that wouldn’t count as a TD for this prop, it’s yet another instance of the Saints putting the ball in Hill’s hands at the goal line.)
Given his recent utilization and all-purpose skill set, Hill is a legitimate red-zone producer.
At +290, Hill has a 25.6% implied probability of scoring a TD this week. I have his true odds at 31.1%.
You can tail Hill at BetMGM, where your first bet of up to $1,500 will be paid back in bonus bets if it does not win! Sign up below to claim your offer!
Noah Fant Under 20.5 Receiving Yards (-125, PointsBet)
- My Projection: 18.4
- Cutoff: 18.5
My projection isn’t all that far off from Fant’s prop, but I believe that my projection is being skewed by Fant’s outlier 13.3 yards per target this year. His career mark is 8.0, and I expect him to regress toward that mark as the season progresses.
Our official Fantasy Life projection of 12.9 feels more accurate to me.
In four games since the Week 5 bye, Fant has a meager 5% target share and 4% air share (per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report). For comparison, No. 2 TE Colby Parkinson has a 6% target share and 5% air share over that same span. For that matter, No. 4 WR Jake Bobo has marks of 8% and 10%.
Despite his theoretical upside, Fant has been reduced to a trivial role within the Seahawks' defense.
Tail the Fant under at PointsBet, where you can get 10 second-chance bets of up to $100 each when you create a new account below!
Kenny Pickett Under 19.5 Completions (-105, DraftKings)
- My Projection: 19.4
- Cutoff: 19.5 (-120)
I’m cutting it close here with my projection, but I see Pickett as having a hard and low passing cap.
Throughout the season, Pickett’s completion prop has hovered in the 18.5-to-20.5 range, so the current number in the market is representative -- and Pickett is 7-1 to the under. Only once this year has Pickett gone over 19.5 completions, and that was Week 1, when he had 31 in a 30-7 loss that saw him attempt a season-high 46 passes.
This week, though, the Steelers are home favorites of at least a field goal against a mediocre Packers team in a game with a total of only 39 points. The Steelers are likely to lean on their running attack for the duration of the contest, which should help Pickett stay under his prop total.
Breece Hall Over 18.5 Receiving Yards (-110, bet365)
- My Projection: 25.7
- Cutoff: 21.5
Ugh.
I bet over 17.5 last week and lost as Hall had only 10 yards receiving -- but he had four targets and has 6.7 yards per target for his career, so he had a good chance to hit the over.
Oct 29, 2023; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; New York Jets running back Breece Hall (20) runs against New York Giants cornerback Adoree' Jackson (22) during the first half at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
We just got unlucky -- especially when you consider that he easily could’ve seen more targets than four as a check-down option in a 27-6 loss.
On top of that, the team pulled Hall for the final drive -- once the game was well out of hand -- and No. 2 RB Michael Carter proceeded to get six targets.
Unreal.
In Week 5 the Jets markedly increased Hall’s usage after he worked his way back into game shape in Weeks 1-4, and in the four games since then Hall has a 62% snap rate, 46% route rate 15% target share, and 25% target rate, all of which he has leveraged into 18 receptions and 157 yards on 21 targets.
Despite his recent production, Hall’s prop has moved up only three yards from 15.5 in Week 5. He’s still priced closer to his floor than his ceiling.
You can tail the over on bet365, where you can get $365 in bonus bets when you create a new account and place a first bet of $1 below!
