The hot streak has cooled a little, but last week gave me my sixth consecutive session of prop profitability.

  • Week 5: 8-5, +2.7 units
  • Week 6: 17-10, +5.2 units
  • Week 7: 20-12, +5.9 units
  • Week 8: 22-13, +8.0 units
  • Week 9: 16-13, +1.3 units
  • Week 10: 20-15, +3.0 units

The gambling gods be good, let’s keep this streak going.

Several reminders:

  • Bet Tracker: You can find these five props -- and many more -- in our 100% FREE Fantasy Life bet tracker.
  • Discord: When I’m posting bets in our tracker, I will sometimes jump into the “Free Picks” channel of our Discord and let everyone know that I’m putting up plays. Join our Discord (again, it’s free).
  • Projections: You can find my player projections in the Fantasy Life projections tool! In my experience, these projections are useful for both betting props and making fantasy start/sit decisions.
  • Prop Tool: The Fantasy Life prop tool now contains my player projections (as well as our official projections) and compares them to the lines in the prop market to show the bets that we think offer the most opportunity. It’s a great resource.
  • Lines Move: Lines can and often do move, and we update our projections regularly, just in case there’s a difference between what you see in the market or on the site versus what you see in this article.

Preamble given, here are five player props I like for Week 11.

Christian McCaffrey Anytime TD (-220, DraftKings)

Of course.

Last week, I finally jumped on the McCaffrey TD bandwagon -- and the wheels fell off.

But I’m staying on that wagon for at least another week.

Sure, McCaffrey didn’t score a TD last week, but a lot of that was due to incredibly bad luck. The 49ers scored 34 points -- and yet McCaffrey didn’t find the endzone. How?

The 49ers didn’t run a play inside the 10-yard until 5:17 in the fourth quarter, when backup QB Sam Darnold was already in the game. And even then the 49ers gave McCaffrey four opportunities (two carries, two targets).

Framed differently: McCaffrey had 100% of the team’s opportunities within the 10-yard line last week.

That’s the kind of usage that results in TDs far more often than not.

In his 23 games with the 49ers since joining the team via midseason trade last year, he has scored 26 TDs. In all but four of his 49ers games has he hit paydirt (82.6%). 

He leads the league with 38 redzone carries and also has nine targets inside the 20-yard line.

At -220, McCaffrey has a 68.8% implied probability of scoring a TD this week, and I have his true odds of scoring projected at 72.3%.

You can tail the McCaffrey touchdown at DraftKings, where you can get  $200 in bonus bets when you sign up below and place an initial bet of at least $5!

Josh Allen Over 0.5 INTs (-160, BetMGM)

My projection doesn’t align with my bet, but 1) I don’t think I’m all that good yet at creating median INT projections, and 2) this is more of a gut-based wager informed by data than a straight-up numbers-backed bet.

No matter where you set the starting point, whether it’s his 2018 rookie season or just this year, Allen leads the league in INTs within the timeframe.

This year he has 11 INTs in 10 games and has thrown an INT in 80% of his contests.

Against the Jets in Week 1 he threw three INTs. He had two INTs in two games against them last year.

A gunslinger at heart, Allen is a great QB. He leads the league with 19 TDs passing and is No. 2 in composite EPA + CPOE (0.164, per RBs Don’t Matter) and No. 4 in QBR (72.1, per ESPN). With Allen, there’s a lot of good.

But the good is accompanied by a not insignificant amount of bad.

And I’m willing to bet on some bad this weekend.

You can tail the interception prop at BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win! Simply sign up below to start betting today!

Saquon Barkley Under 19.5 Carries (-108, FanDuel)

The thesis here is pretty simple: With QB Tommy DeVito, the Giants are unlikely to have a functional offense, which will make it hard for Barkley to accumulate 20-plus carries.

Last week -- in DeVito’s first NFL start -- the Giants had the ball for just 22:39 and totaled only 172 yards of offense. They were a hilariously poor 0-of-12 converting on third down.

They almost certainly won’t be that bad again, but they won’t be good, and last week Barkley had just 13 carries.

In the worst of realistic scenarios, the Giants won’t be able to sustain drives that are long enough for Barkley to hit the over. In the best of realistic scenarios, the Giants will be able to move the ball, but they’ll need to rely on the passing game as large underdogs.

Either way, Barkley seems unlikely to pile up the carries.

You can tail the under on FanDuel, where you can get $200 in bonus bets when you sign up and place an initial $5 bet below!

David Montgomery Over 49.5 Rushing Yards (-110, bet365)

The Lions are home favorites of more than a TD, so they could have a run-heavy game script, especially in the second half, when Montgomery could see a cavalcade of carries.

Despite sharing work with rookie RB Jahmyr Gibbs, Montgomery leads the league with 83.5 rushing yards per game.

David Montgomery

Oct 8, 2023; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Detroit Lions running back David Montgomery (5) celebrates in the end zone with wide receiver Jameson Williams (9) after running for a touchdown against the Carolina Panthers in the first quarter at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Lon Horwedel-USA TODAY Sports

Montgomery exited Week 6 early after just 18 snaps (26%), but in his other five games he has had at least 12 carries and 67 yards rushing.

Plus … this is a #RevengeGame for Montgomery against the Bears, who drafted him in 2019 but then let him walk in free agency this offseason. Does that matter? Probably not. But I’m sure it doesn’t hurt.

You can tail the Montgomery over (and the Wilson over coming up next) at bet365, where you can get $365 in bonus bets when you sign up and place a first bet of just $1 below!

Russell Wilson Over 1.5 Passing TDs (+160, bet365)

Under HC Sean Payton’s begrudging tutelage, Wilson has had a bounceback campaign. Last year he was No. 30 in composite EPA + CPOE (0.041). This year, No. 9 (0.122).

Once again, Wilson looks like a competent NFL QB.

With his return to form, Wilson has regained his TD touch. Last year, he had an embarrassing 16 TDs in 15 games. He had more than 1.5 TDs passing just thrice.

This year, Wilson has 18 TDs in nine games and has failed to go over 1.5 only three times. He leads the league with 30 redzone pass attempts, which he has converted into an NFL-high 15 redzone TDs.

While Payton’s demeanor, gestures, and reactions on the sideline suggest that he doesn’t fully trust Wilson to operate his offense, he’s at least letting Wilson throw the ball as the team approaches the goal line.

I think this one is close to a coinflip, so I’ll take the plus odds.

Freedman's Props