Freedman's Props. Best Player Prop Bets for Week 3
For the season, I’m 4-5-1 (-1.48 units) on the props highlighted in this piece.
Gross.
Gotta get better or the New Hampshire DMV will make me forfeit my PROPGOD license plate.
A few reminders:
Bet Tracker: You can find these five props – any more – in our 100% FREE Fantasy Life bet tracker.
Discord: When I’m posting bets in our tracker, I will often jump into the “Free Picks” channel of our Discord and let everyone know that I’m putting up plays. Join our Discord (again, it’s free).
Projections: You can now find my personal player projections in the Fantasy Life projections tool! In my experience, these projections are useful for both betting props and making fantasy start/sit decisions.
Prop Tool: The Fantasy Life prop tool now contains my personal player projections (as well as our official projections) and compares them to the lines in the prop market to show the bets that we think offer the most opportunity. It’s a great resource.
Lines Move: Lines can and often do move, and we update our projections regularly, just in case there’s a difference between what you see in the market or on the site versus what you see in this article.
Preamble given, let’s get to my top five player props for Week 2, listed in reverse order from No. 5 to No. 1.
Mac Jones Over 31.5 Pass Attempts (-102, FanDuel)
Under new OC Bill O’Brien, the Patriots are leaning much more into the passing game: Last year they were No. 17 in pass play rate (57.8%), but this year they’re No. 4 (68.5%).
They’re also playing faster. Last year they were No. 17 in pace (27.4 seconds per snap); this year, they’re No. 4 (22.6 seconds, per FTN).
As a result, Jones leads the league with 96 pass attempts through two weeks.
The spread for this game is Patriots -2.5 (per our friends at Unabated), so I doubt we get to a point where they abandon the passing game: They will likely need to be balanced throughout the contest.
I’m not saying that Jones will have a lot of success against a strong Jets defense. I’m just saying that he’s going to get ample opportunities to throw the ball.
- Fantasy Life Projection: 35.0
- My Projection: 32.8
- Cutoff: 31.5 (-125)
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Brian Robinson Under 17.5 Carries (-130, PointsBet)
Robinson has 19 and 18 carries in two games this year, so the over might feel like a strong play, but I like the Bills as -6.5 favorites and think they could establish a big lead over a Commanders team that has had two relatively easy matchups with the Cardinals and Broncos.
Last week, the Broncos got out to a 21-3 lead, and when the Commanders were down by more than a touchdown Robinson saw just two carries. If the Bills are able to establish a large lead and put the Commanders in a deficit, they could deemphasize Robinson within the offense and shift to more of an aerial attack.
On top of that, the Bills have the offensive prowess to sustain drives on their own, thereby limiting the total number of plays the Commanders have the chance to run on offense.
- Fantasy Life Projection: 16.1
- My Projection: 15.9
- Cutoff: 16.5
Trevor Lawrence Over 14.5 Rushing Yards (-111, BetMGM)
Through two weeks, Lawrence has shown a strong willingness to run (six carries per game this year vs. 3.6 last year). The sample is small, but it’s encouraging: In Week 1, he had 21 yards on seven carries, and then in Week 2 he had 26 on five.
His prop of 14.5 yards makes sense based on his numbers from last year, when his median output was 15 yards and three carries.
But this is a new season, and 2023 Lawrence is more of a rusher. In 2022, he had a 9% designed rush rate. This year, he has a 12% designed run rate (per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report).
And in general I think the prop market to open the year has been too low on the rushing props of mobile pocket passers -- guys like Lawrence, Patrick Mahomes, Geno Smith, et al. While they’re not quite dual-threat QBs, these guys can still run the ball.
- Fantasy Life Projection: 21.1
- My Projection: 18.7
- Cutoff: 16.5
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Tyler Allgeier Over 41.5 Rushing Yards (-110, bet365)
Last year the Falcons were No. 2 in run rate (55.3%). This year, they’re No. 1 (56.4%). Running the ball is what they do.
Even with first-round rookie RB Bijan Robinson balling out, Allgeier has still had 15 and 16 carries in two games for 75 and 48 yards rushing.
Going back to last season, Allgeier hasn’t had fewer than 41.5 yards on the ground since Week 10. That’s nine straight games. He’s a key contributor in the Falcons offense -- especially with RB Cordarrelle Patterson inactivated last week. As long as Allgeier doesn’t need to compete with Bijan AND C-Patz for carries, he should get enough work to hit the over.
And his matchup is just an added bonus: Last year the Lions were Nos. 27 & 28 in defensive EPA and SR (0.021 & 44.8%, per RBs Don’t Matter).
- Fantasy Life Projection: 48.3
- My Projection: 49.5
- Cutoff: 44.5
Alexander Mattison Under 58.5 Rushing Yards (-110, bet365)
It pains me to take the under on Mattison given that he’s one of my fantasy favorites this week -- but let me provide some context: I like Mattison because he has 29 of the team’s 36 backfield opportunities (19 carries, 10 targets), and he leads the Vikings with four opportunities (two carries, two targets) inside the 10-yard line.
In a game that easily has the week’s highest betting total (54 points), Mattison has the potential to turn 12 carries and four targets into 70 yards and two touchdowns.
Given all the uncertainty at the RB position, that would be a great fantasy day -- but Mattison could still go under 58.5 rushing yards with that performance.
The Vikings are a passing team. Last year, they were No. 3 in pass play rate (64.4%). This year, they’re easily No. 1 (78.0%). With their propensity to throw the ball, Mattison’s carry ceiling is likely capped, which means that it will be hard for him to hit the over -- especially with the 3.3 yards per carry he has averaged this year and 3.7 since 2021.
And that doesn’t even take into account the possibility that -- because of his inefficiency -- he could face more competition for snaps and carries from backup Ty Chandler and the recently acquired Cam Akers.
- Fantasy Life Projection: 53.7
- My Projection: 50.5
- Cutoff: 55.5
Previous Best Player Props Pieces
