Some real talk, to open the piece.
I’m in the middle -- well, hopefully near the end -- of the worst prop betting stretch of my life.
For my entire betting career, since the moment I started, I’ve been profitable on player props. Coming from fantasy, I gravitated to player props, which just made intuitive sense to me.
My bankroll isn’t massive, and I don’t actually aspire to be a full-on professional bettor. I’m good with being a content creator and sports analyst who also happens to be a profitable recreational bettor. But I’ve also never gone to zero -- I started with $1,000 in an account years ago and built from there -- and my bankroll would not be nearly what it is without my prop success.
I’m not saying that to brag. There’s nothing heroic about beating props. It’s a soft market, and it’s not as if I’m curing cancer. I’m just a degenerate nerd who looks at numbers and says stuff like, “I think that’s about 8% too high, let’s put some money on it.”
I’m just trying to contextualize what’s happening: I’m in a prop slump -- and I’ve never been in one that feels this extreme.
It feels terrible.
That said …
For the season, I’m just 36-40 (-6.77 units) on player props. That’s not good, but it’s also not terrible.
I’m a disastrous 5-9 (-4.71 units) on the bets I’ve highlighted in this piece -- and that downright sucks -- but so far my season actually hasn’t been as bad as it has felt.
I’ve evaluated my projection and betting process to consider reasonable and profitable changes I can make. I have some ideas.
For one, I will refrain from making any more “PROPGOD license plate” jokes. That was amateur. I’m sure it didn’t please the gambling gods. Mea culpa.
But for the most part, I’ve decided to stick with the core of my process. I’ve had success with it over the long term, and I don’t think a 36-40 performance over three weeks is enough to call for an overhaul.
But in the vernacular of Ian Hartitz: “Sheesh.”
My performance needs to improve.
A few reminders:
Bet Tracker: You can find these five props – any more – in our 100% FREE Fantasy Life bet tracker.
Discord: When I’m posting bets in our tracker, I will often jump into the “Free Picks” channel of our Discord and let everyone know that I’m putting up plays. Join our Discord (again, it’s free).
Projections: You can now find my personal player projections in the Fantasy Life projections tool! In my experience, these projections are useful for both betting props and making fantasy start/sit decisions.
Prop Tool: The Fantasy Life prop tool now contains my personal player projections (as well as our official projections) and compares them to the lines in the prop market to show the bets that we think offer the most opportunity. It’s a great resource.
Lines Move: Lines can and often do move, and we update our projections regularly, just in case there’s a difference between what you see in the market or on the site versus what you see in this article.
Preamble given, here are five player props I like for Week 4.
Rondale Moore Under 3.5 Receptions (+110, BetMGM)
Moore’s prop number moved from 2.5 last week to 3.5 this week in response to his four-reception performance against the Cowboys -- but that came with a season-high six targets.
I doubt Moore sees that kind of usage this week against the 49ers, who I think will control the ball better than the Cowboys did. On top of that, when the Cardinals have the ball I expect them to lean into the running game.
- My Projection: 3.1
- Cutoff: 3.5 (-130)
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Patrick Mahomes Over 17.5 Rushing Yards (-110, DraftKings)
This year Mahomes has run more (5.3 carries per game) -- and more efficiently (6.4 yards per carry) -- than he has at any other point of his career.
Through three weeks, he has a 10% scramble rate and 6% designed rush rate. Last year, those numbers were 7% and 4% (per our Utilization Report).
I’d expect Mahomes to tail off as a runner at some point, but I don’t see why that should be this week.
Mahomes has averaged 20-plus rushing yards per game in each of the past three years, and this season he is 3-0 on his rushing yardage prop and has gone over 17.5 yards rushing in each game.
- My Projection: 26.3
- Cutoff: 21.5
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Tyler Allgeier Over 8.5 Carries (-115, BetMGM)
I bet the over on Allgeier’s rushing yardage prop last week (41.5), and that didn’t come even close to hitting (he had just 12 yards), but I think the thesis for investing in him was generally sound -- and even in a highly negative situation (the Falcons lost 20-6 on the road) he still had seven carries.
Jan 1, 2023; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Falcons running back Tyler Allgeier (25) runs the ball against the Arizona Cardinals in the first half at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
The Falcons are just +3 underdog to the Jaguars in London, so I expect them to maintain a balanced offensive approach for much of the game.
In Weeks 1-2, Allgeier had 15 and 16 carries.
- My Projection: 9.8
- Cutoff: 8.5 (-160)
Dalton Kincaid Over 2.5 Receptions (-110, BetMGM)
In Weeks 1-2, Kincaid’s prop line was 2.5. He hit the over in both games with four and five receptions.
Last week, the prop line was 3.5, but he hit the under with just two receptions -- and so his prop has moved back down.
But last week -- in a 37-3 blowout of the Commanders -- the Bills didn’t need to lean into the passing game.
This week, facing the 70-point Dolphins in a game with a slate-high total of 53.5 points, the Bills will likely need to throw much more.
- My Projection: 3.2
- Cutoff: 2.5 (-135)
Tyler Conklin Under 28.5 Receiving Yards (-110, bet365)
In his 12 games with QB Zack Wilson, Conklin has averaged 25.8 yards with the Jets. In his eight games without Wilson, he has averaged 39.8.
You might say something like, “The Jets are big underdogs, so they’re going to throw the ball more.” Maybe.
Since joining the Jets, Conklin has been an underdog in 15 games. In those contests, he has gone over 28.5 yards five times.
His prop total of 28.5 is easily his highest mark of the season. It was 21.5 in Weeks 1-2 and 22.5 in Week 3.
- My Projection: 24.4
- Cutoff: 26.5
Previous Best Player Props Pieces
