I’m not where I want to be, but at least last week I was positive with my favorite prop bets.
- Week 4: 3-2, +0.92 units
- Season: 8-11, -3.79 units
Onward. Upward. Untoward. Etc.
A few reminders:
Bet Tracker: You can find these five props – any more – in our 100% FREE Fantasy Life bet tracker.
Discord: When I’m posting bets in our tracker, I will often jump into the “Free Picks” channel of our Discord and let everyone know that I’m putting up plays. Join our Discord (again, it’s free).
Projections: You can now find my personal player projections in the Fantasy Life projections tool! In my experience, these projections are useful for both betting props and making fantasy start/sit decisions.
Prop Tool: The Fantasy Life prop tool now contains my personal player projections (as well as our official projections) and compares them to the lines in the prop market to show the bets that we think offer the most opportunity. It’s a great resource.
Lines Move: Lines can and often do move, and we update our projections regularly, just in case there’s a difference between what you see in the market or on the site versus what you see in this article.
Preamble given, here are five player props I like for Week 5.
Jared Goff Over 30.5 Pass Attempts (-110, BetMGM)
Last year, Goff had an average of 34.5 pass attempts per game with a median of 37. This year, 32.75 with a median of 34.
He has gone over 30.5 pass attempts in 75% of games this year.
Given that the Lions are such big favorites -- they have an official Unabated Line of -10 -- they could have more of a run-heavy game script than they usually do.
But even in the eight games the Lions have won by nine-plus points with Goff, he has still averaged 32.0 pass attempts.
I’m expecting the Panthers to be without three starters in their back seven -- CB Jaycee Horn (hamstring, IR), FS Xavier Woods (hamstring), and LB Shaq Thompson (ankle, IR) -- so they could be especially vulnerable in pass defense.
- Fantasy Life Projection: 33
- My Projection: 33.3
- Cutoff: 31.5
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Jordan Love Over 10.5 Rushing Yards (-110, bet365)
In his five career starts, Love has averaged 19 rushing yards per game with a median of 23.
Only once has he failed to go over 10.5 -- last week, when he had -2 yards. Otherwise, he has had 23, 12, 23, and 39 yards rushing.
As a road underdog (+1.5), Love is unlikely to lose rushing yards via kneel-downs at the end of the game.
Of the four starting QBs to face the Raiders this year, the one to whom Love is most comparable as a runner is Justin Herbert, based on our Fantasy Life Utilization Report).
- Justin Herbert: 10% designed rush rate | 6% scramble rate
- Jordan Love: 10% designed rush rate | 5% scramble rate
Last week, Herbert had 12-27-2 rushing against the Raiders.
- Fantasy Life Projection: 14.1
- My Projection: 18.6
- Cutoff: 12.5
Jonnu Smith Under 32.5 Receiving Yards (-120, bet365)
Smith did nothing in Week 1 (zero targets), but in Weeks 2-4 he balled out (15-179-0 receiving on 20 targets).
Over the past three games, Smith is No. 1 on the team in receiving yards and receptions and No. 2 in targets.
Wowzah.
Atlanta Falcons tight end Jonnu Smith (81) makes a catch against Detroit Lions cornerback Jerry Jacobs (23) during the second half at Ford Field in Detroit on Sunday, Sept. 24, 2023.
Here’s the thing: I’m not buying it.
Since Week 2, Smith is No. 5 on the team in route rate (68%) -- behind WR Drake London (88%), TE Kyle Pitts (88%), RB Bijan Robinson (73%), and WR Mack Hollins (72%).
In his 2020-21 seasons as the No. 1 TE with the Titans under then-OC and current Falcons HC Arthur Smith, Jonnu averaged 28.6 receiving yards per game with a median of 20.
Last week -- in their first game with both SS Jimmy Ward and FS Jalen Pitre healthy -- the Texans held Steelers TEs Pat Freiermuth and Darnell Washington to a combined 17 yards receiving on five targets.
- Fantasy Life Projection: 24.9
- My Projection: 23.3
- Cutoff: 29.5
Chuba Hubbard Under 14.5 Receiving Yards (-110, bet365)
Despite averaging 14.3 yards receiving per game, Hubbard has gone over this number just once this year and has a median of 10.5.
Although Hubbard is operating in a split backfield with No. 1 RB Miles Sanders, he has not (in my opinion) carved out a significant enough of a role as a pass catcher.
- Miles Sanders: 45% route rate | 15% target share | 25% target rate
- Chuba Hubbard: 33% route rate | 8% target share | 18% target rate
And last week, Sanders played 100% of the snaps inside two minutes.
Even if the Panthers find themselves in a pass-heavy game state as double-digit road underdogs (+10), that doesn’t mean that QB Bryce Young will be dumping the ball off to Hubbard.
- Fantasy Life Projection: 13.8
- My Projection: 12.9
- Cutoff: 14.5 (-125)
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Tony Pollard Over 54.5 Rushing Yards (-118, BetMGM)
Pollard had just 47 yards rushing on 11 carries last week -- but that was in a 38-3 home blowout. This week the Cowboys are road underdogs (+3.5) against the 49ers, so I think they’ll give Pollard as much work as he can handle, especially since No. 2 RB Rico Dowdle (hip) isn’t 100%.
As great as the 49ers' defense is, it’s vulnerable against the run, ranking No. 28 in rush EPA (0.028) and No. 29 in rush SR (46.7%, per RBs Don’t Matter).
No RB has hit this total yet against the 49ers -- RBs Kyren Williams (Week 2) and James Conner (Week 4) have come the closest with 52 yards -- but they also have not faced a team as good as the Cowboys and an RB as good as Pollard.
I’m yet to see Pollard to the under in any projection set.
- Fantasy Life Projection: 58.3
- My Projection: 67.0
- Cutoff: 58.5
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Previous Best Player Props Pieces
