Blurg.

I’m not sure if it’s “blurg” or “blurgh.”

Intuitively, I feel there should be an “h” at the end of it.

Like “Pittsburgh.”

Although I guess there also is a Pittsburg in Kansas, as in “Pittsburg State,” as in the alma mater of the great journeyman WR John Brown, who never would’ve dreamed of not delivering for me if I had action on a prop of his.

Of course, he wouldn’t have dreamed of not delivering for me because he in fact does not know I exist.

But, still, you get the idea.

Blurg.

Wait … maybe it’s blerg? Or blergh?

What do you think?

I’m gonna go with blurgh.

  • Week 5: 2-3, -1.18 units
  • Season: 10-14, -4.97 units

I’ve had better, etc.

Several reminders:

  • Bet Tracker: You can find these five props – any more – in our 100% FREE Fantasy Life bet tracker.
  • Discord: When I’m posting bets in our tracker, I will often jump into the “Free Picks” channel of our Discord and let everyone know that I’m putting up plays. Join our Discord (again, it’s free). 
  • Projections: You can now find my personal player projections in the Fantasy Life projections tool! In my experience, these projections are useful for both betting props and making fantasy start/sit decisions.
  • Prop Tool: The Fantasy Life prop tool now contains my personal player projections (as well as our official projections) and compares them to the lines in the prop market to show the bets that we think offer the most opportunity. It’s a great resource.
  • Lines Move: Lines can and often do move, and we update our projections regularly, just in case there’s a difference between what you see in the market or on the site versus what you see in this article.

Preamble given, here are five player props I like for Week 6.

Josh Allen Over 25.5 Rushing Yards (-115, DraftKings)

Allen has not run the ball nearly as much this year as he has in previous seasons. This year, he’s averaging just four carries per game. Last year, he had almost double that at 7.8.

A glance at our Fantasy Life Utilization Tool highlights the discrepancy.

  • 2023: 7% designed rush rate | 6% scramble rate
  • 2022: 18% designed rush rate | 8% scramble rate
  • 2021: 19% designed rush rate | 7% scramble rate
  • 2020: 21% designed rush rate | 5% scramble rate

His year-to-year scramble rate has held relatively steady, but his designed rush rate has declined each of the past three years and dropped off a cliff this season.

Even so, his rushing efficiency has remained intact (6.0 yards per carry this season, 6.1 last season), and Allen’s rushing prop of 25.5 presents us with a buy-low opportunity.

Easily, 25.5 is the lowest mark Allen has had this year. Last week, his rushing prop was 35. Last year, the lowest prop he had was 37.5.

Josh Allen

Oct 8, 2023; London United Kingdom, Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) throws the ball against the Jacksonville Jaguars in the second half of an NFL International Series game at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

His usage has changed, but I believe this is an over-adjusted number.

The Giants defense is No. 3 in the league in blitz rate (41.4%), but it has a mediocre pressure rate (19.7%). I expect the Giants to come after Allen -- but I don’t think they’ll sack him often, which means that he’ll have opportunities to escape the pocket and pick up chunk yardage as a scrambler.

Given that the Bills are massive -14 home favorites, there’s always the risk of Allen being scripted out of the game as a runner and losing valuable yards at the end of the game on kneel-downs.

But, again, this number is too low for a runner of Allen’s talent.

Of the QBs to face the Giants this year, the guy most comparable to Allen as a rusher is Josh Dobbs. He had 41 yards on just three carries against the Giants in Week 2.

  • My Projection: 32
  • Cutoff: 28.5

Jonathan Mingo Over 28.5 Receiving Yards (-110, DraftKings)

In four games played, Mingo has gone over this number just once. Not great.

But he has decent volume (6.5 targets per game), and his dreadful efficiency (4.3 yards per target) will improve at some point. Why not this game?

The Dolphins are No. 8 in most yards per pass attempt allowed (7.6), and they No. 30 in defensive dropback SR (51.9%, per RBs Don’t Matter).

The Panthers are unfortunate +13.5 road underdogs, which means that they will likely have a strong pass-heavy script for much of the game, and there could be ample garbage-time opportunities for Mingo.

With at least five targets in every game, Mingo is likely to see the volume he needs to hit the over … as long as he’s actually able to do something -- even just a little bit of anything -- with those targets.

  • My Projection: 38
  • Cutoff: 33.5

You can tail both Allen and Mingo at DraftKings Sportsbook, where you can get $200 in bonus bets by placing an initial bet of only $5 or more. Simply sign up below to start betting TODAY!

Trevor Lawrence Over 15.5 Rushing Yards (-111, BetMGM)

I continue to see value on the over for the rushing props of pocket-passing QBs who still have good mobility -- like Lawrence.

And the market is still too low on Lawrence specifically.

He is 4-1 to the over on his rushing prop this year, and he has cleared 15.5 -- in fact, he has cleared 20 -- in every game but one.

Through five games, he has shown a strong willingness to run (six carries per game this year vs. 3.6 last year). The sample is small, but it’s encouraging.

Relative to last year, his usage on designed runs has bumped up a little, and his enthusiasm for abandoning the pocket when pressured has amplified.

  • 2023: 10% designed rush rate | 8% scramble rate
  • 2022: 9% designed rush rate | 4% scramble rate

It’s especially notable that his scramble rate has doubled -- because that’s the part of his rushing production that is primarily within his control. Even if he gets no designed carries in any given game, he still has a chance to hit his over because of his scrambling.

Given his usage and production, I think Lawrence is priced near his floor, and against the Colts in Week 1, he had 21 yards on seven carries.

  • My Projection: 22.3
  • Cutoff: 19.5

You can tail the Lawrence over at BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win! Simply sign up below to claim your First Bet Offer and start betting today!

Chigoziem Okonkwo Under 35.5 Receiving Yards (-130, PointsBet)

A couple of “technical” thoughts on this bet.

First, I think there’s a decent chance my personal projection is too high. Our official Fantasy Life projections have Okonkwo at 16.0 receiving yards.

Second, my projections (like almost all projections) are generally based on means (averages) instead of medians (the midpoints between what happens 50% of the time on one side and 50% of the time on the other side). I mention this because medians tend to be lower and more accurate. And that means that there’s even more room to the downside from where my projection currently is.

As it is, Okonkwo has gone under 35.5 receiving yards every game this year.

The guy is talented, but there’s only so much a TE can do on 4.4 targets per game (with a median of four) -- and last week he had a season-low 58% snap rate. 

  • My Projection: 30
  • Cutoff: 31.5

You can tail the under on Okonkwo at PointsBet, where you can get up to 10 (!) $100 Second Chance Bets when you create a new account below!

Gus Edwards Under 0.5 Receiving Yards (-145, DraftKings)

This bet is the most Freedman of all the bets I’ve ever put into the Bet Tracker, in that it’s ridiculous and destined to lose but almost certainly +EV.

And it also really highlights the difference between mean and median.

Let’s go to the handy Fantasy Life Odds Calculator. At -145 odds, the under has an implied probability of 59.18%. That means the under needs to hit more often than 59.18% of the time to be profitable.

In his NFL career, Edwards has played 62 games (including playoffs). In those games, he has gone over 0.5 yards just 16 times, which means that the under has hit 46 times, at a 74.2% rate. That’s pretty good.

All it takes is one successful screen pass for Edwards to hit the over. I get it.

Gus Edwards

Dec 17, 2022; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Baltimore Ravens running back Gus Edwards (35) runs the ball against the Cleveland Browns during the second quarter at FirstEnergy Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Galvin-USA TODAY Sports

But he’s hardly ever used in the passing game. Last year, he had three targets in 10 games, and he went over 0.5 yards just once. This year, he has three targets in five games -- but all of those targets came in just one contest, and that was when RB Justice Hill was limited to seven snaps with an injury. And in that game, Edwards turned three targets into one yard.

Hill is now healthy, so I expect Edwards to have zero targets this week.

And there’s more: Even if Edwards gets the rogue target, that doesn’t mean he’ll catch it. And if he catches it, that doesn’t mean he’ll actually turn it into positive yardage, given that he’s likely to be targeted at or behind the line of scrimmage: His aDOT this year is a hilariously low -2.

Burn your money.

  • Median Projection: 0
  • Mean Projection: 3.9
  • Cutoff: 0.5 (-200)

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