Last week marked my best NFL prop betting performance of the year (17-10, +5.2 units). Another week like that, and I’ll have a positive prop record.

And yet … I went 1-4 (-3.2 units) in this piece last week.

Gross.

I’m thinking about reworking my process.

Last year, I bet most of my props on the night before and the morning of gameday, and I had a lot of success (270-210, +42.9 units).

Last week -- for the first time this year -- I bet most of my props on Sunday … and that worked out.

In my prop betting heyday 3-5 years ago, I made most of my bets late on Saturday night and early on Sunday morning.

So I think it’s likely that this season I’m betting most of my props too early in the week.

I’ll need to think about what that means for this piece, which I tend to write on Thursday night, but -- anyway -- here are my five favorite props on the board right now.

Several reminders:

  • Bet Tracker: You can find these five props -- and many more -- in our 100% FREE Fantasy Life bet tracker.
  • Discord: When I’m posting bets in our tracker, I will often jump into the “Free Picks” channel of our Discord and let everyone know that I’m putting up plays. Join our Discord (again, it’s free). 
  • Projections: You can find my personal player projections in the Fantasy Life projections tool! In my experience, these projections are useful for both betting props and making fantasy start/sit decisions.
  • Prop Tool: The Fantasy Life prop tool now contains my personal player projections (as well as our official projections) and compares them to the lines in the prop market to show the bets that we think offer the most opportunity. It’s a great resource.
  • Lines Move: Lines can and often do move, and we update our projections regularly, just in case there’s a difference between what you see in the market or on the site versus what you see in this article.

Preamble given, here are five player props I like for Week 7.

Gabe Davis Over 33.5 Yards Receiving (-115, BetMGM)

Davis’ prop of 33.5 yards isn’t just his lowest mark this year. It’s also the lowest mark he has had since last year.

Just last week, his prop was 43.5 yards -- but then he had a season-low 21 yards receiving … and now his prop has dropped 10 yards.

It’s an overreaction.

Since becoming a full-time player last year, Davis has played 23 games (including playoffs). In those games, he has gone over 33.5 yards receiving 17 times (73.9%).

In his two games since last year with a receiving prop in the 30s -- Weeks 15-16 (37.5 and 36.5 yards) -- he had 56 and 45 yards receiving.

Davis has an explosive 11.4 yards per target this year, and for his career he has an efficient mark of 9.4 yards: He doesn’t need many targets to have a real chance to hit the over.

And this year he’s averaging a respectable five targets per game.

Davis is one of my Week 7 fantasy favorites.

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Kadarius Toney Under 29.5 Receiving Yards (-110, Unibet)

Come on.

Toney is yet to play more than 42% of the offensive snaps in any game this year.

He has 4.2 targets per game, but RB-like average depth of target of 2.2 yards makes it really hard for him to accumulate receiving yards. For the year, Toney has just 55 air yards. 

He’s a theoretical playmaker, but Toney has just 3.7 yards per target this year and 6.3 since joining the Chiefs last year.

In 10 games with Kansas City in 2022 (including playoffs), Toney surpassed the 29.5-yard receiving threshold just thrice. In six games this year, he has gone over the mark only once.

And here’s what’s wild: His prop of 29.5 yards is higher than all of the other marks he has had this year except for the 30.5-yard prop he had in Week 1. Despite his performance record, Toney is priced near his ceiling.

Mack Hollins Under 17.5 Receiving Yards (-111, BetMGM)

Hollins has easily gone over this number in every game but one this year. And just last week he had 41 yards on four targets.

But he also had season-low marks with a 34% snap rate, 23% route rate, 7.75-yard aDOT, and 8% air share (per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report).

With the addition of WR Van Jefferson, Hollins is likely to be phased out of the offense. In just his first game with the team last week, Jefferson was already ahead of Hollins in route rate (29%), aDOT (29.5 yards), and air yards (14%).

Rondale Moore Under 26.5 Receiving Yards (-110, DraftKings)

In terms of his prop lines this year, Moore is priced closer to his Week 1 ceiling (31.5) than his Week 6 floor (19.5), and his line of 26.5 feels like a reaction -- maybe an overreaction -- to the 26 and 30 yards receiving he racked up in his two most recent games.

But that production -- a whopping 56 yards -- came on six targets per game, and I’m skeptical he’ll see that kind of volume this week, for a couple of reasons.

Rondale Moore

Arizona Cardinals receiver Rondale Moore (4) scores on a 45-yard reception against the Dallas Cowboys at State Farm Stadium in Glendale on Set. 24, 2023.

First, in Weeks 1-4 he had three targets per game. He probably won’t regress all the way to three targets from six -- but he also seems unlikely to stay at six.

Second, Moore has a tough matchup against rookie first-round CB Devon Witherspoon, who has played primarily in the slot since Week 4. Although he struggled some on the outside in Weeks 2-3, Witherspoon has earned PFF coverage grades of 85.1 and 78.8 since kicking inside -- and in his two games as a slot defender he has allowed just 31 yards on nine targets.

I don’t see Moore have an above-average performance in this spot.

Raheem Mostert Over 50.5 Rushing Yards (-110, DraftKings)

Even with the return of No. 2 RB Jeff Wilson (ribs/finger, IR), Mostert should still lead the Dolphins backfield: He has 10-plus carries in every game this year but one.

Mostert is one of the league’s most explosive ball carriers. This year, he has multiple runs of 20-plus miles per hour, and he’s No. 3 with +1.71 rushing yards over expected per attempt (per Next Gen Stats).

Since joining the Dolphins last year Mostert has 5.2 yards per carry, and for his career (almost all of which has been with HC Mike McDaniel) he has a mark of 5.4 -- which is an NFL record among all RBs with at least 500 carries.

The Eagles defense is Nos. 12 & 18 in defensive rush success rate (37.6%) and expected points added (-0.099). This isn’t a bad run-stop unit, but it’s not elite.

You can tail both Moore and Mostert on DraftKings, where you can get $200 in bonus bets when you sign up and place an initial bet of $5 or more. Click below to claim your offer!

Freedman's Props