I’ve now had strong back-to-back prop weeks.
- Week 6: 17-10, +5.2 units
- Week 7: 20-12, +5.9 units
Despite my slow start to the season, I’m now in the green on NFL player props (90-78, +3.8 units).
In this article last week, I went 3-2 (+0.72 units).
Let’s see if I can keep it up.
Several reminders:
- Bet Tracker: You can find these five props -- and many more -- in our 100% FREE Fantasy Life bet tracker.
- Discord: When I’m posting bets in our tracker, I will sometimes jump into the “Free Picks” channel of our Discord and let everyone know that I’m putting up plays. Join our Discord (again, it’s free).
- Projections: You can find my player projections in the Fantasy Life projections tool! In my experience, these projections are useful for both betting props and making fantasy start/sit decisions.
- Prop Tool: The Fantasy Life prop tool now contains my player projections (as well as our official projections) and compares them to the lines in the prop market to show the bets that we think offer the most opportunity. It’s a great resource.
- Lines Move: Lines can and often do move, and we update our projections regularly, just in case there’s a difference between what you see in the market or on the site versus what you see in this article.
Preamble given, here are five player props I like for Week 8.
Taysom Hill Over 10.5 Rushing Yards (-115, bet365)
- My Projection: 16.2
- Cutoff: 12.5
The prop of 10.5 feels too low given Hill’s consistent workload. In every game but one this year he has had at least three carries.
Since last year -- when OC Pete Carmichael assumed playcalling duties after the departure of HC Sean Payton -- Hill has played in 23 games, all of them as a non-QB offensive weapon.
In those games, he has averaged 5.4 carries for 31.1 yards with medians of five carries and 19 yards.
In terms of the matchup, there’s nothing daunting about the Colts, who are Nos. 16 & 20 in defensive rush expected points added (-0.115) and success rate (41.1%, per RBs Don’t Matter).
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D.J. Chark Under 2.5 Receptions (+120, DraftKings)
- My Projection: 2.2
- Cutoff: 2.5 (-120)
After missing Week 1 and seeing just one target in Week 2, Chark averaged 6.5 targets and three receptions per game in Weeks 3-6 before heading into the bye.
You can see why the under is at plus money.
But Chark dropped to a snap rate of 67% in Week 6 from snap rates of 94%, 92%, and 99% in Weeks 3-5, and his route rate similarly dropped to 64% from 97%, 93%, and 100% in the preceding games (per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report). The usage he has this week could look little like that which he had just a few weeks ago.
And Chark’s role within the offense doesn’t facilitate large reception totals. With his 14.3-yard average depth of target, Chark is a field-stretching deep threat, which has resulted in an abysmal 48.1% catch rate this year.
That’s low, but his career mark of 55.2% isn’t much better.
Chark is an explosive player with 8.0 yards per target since entering the league in 2018 -- but he’s not efficient at turning targets into receptions.
And then there’s the matchup: The Texans -- who are also coming off the bye -- have a tough defensive unit that has flashed some promise. Although they’re still developing, they’re No. 4 in coverage grade (86.4, per PFF).
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Russell Wilson Under 32.5 Pass Attempts (-120, PointsBet)
- My Projection: 31.5
- Cutoff: 31.5
My projection of 31.5 isn’t all that far off from the prop, but I suspect that my projection is also a touch high.
- It’s based on means (averages) vs. medians (what happens 50% of the time), and mean projections tend to skew high.
- Our official Fantasy Life projections (vs. my personal ones) have Wilson projected for 30 pass attempts.
Oct 1, 2023; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson (3) passes against the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Sabau-USA TODAY Sports
This year Wilson has averaged just 30.6 pass attempts per game, and his median has been 31, so the under already looks like a reasonable position -- and against the Chiefs two weeks ago he had a season-low 22 pass attempts.
Why?
Broncos HC Sean Payton wanted to use a balanced attack (22 passes, 23 carries) in order to slow the game down, try to keep the Chiefs offense on the sidelines, and (frankly) minimize Wilson’s impact on the game.
Plus, the Chiefs' defense is strong against the pass (No. 2 in dropback EPA at -0.159) but exploitable via the ground game, ranking No. 30 in rush EPA (0.022), so it makes some sense to try to attack them with RBs.
And the Chiefs were able to hold the ball for 35:49, so the Broncos offense (and Wilson by extension) had limited opportunities.
I don’t see why we wouldn’t see a similar game this week.
Especially with the possibility of negative weather (Denver is forecast with a 70% probability of snow on Sunday), the Broncos could once again lean on the running game and take the ball out of Wilson’s hands.
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Justin Herbert Over 9.5 Rushing Yards (-110, BetMGM)
- My Projection: 14.9
- Cutoff: 11.5
I’ve talked about this for weeks now: The prop market tends to be too low on pocket-passing QBs who still have good mobility -- like Herbert.
This year, he has averaged 13.3 yards per game with a median of 14, thanks to his increased willingness to turn dropbacks into runs (per our Utilization Report).
- 2023: 7% scramble rate
- 2023: 3% scramble rate
Every QB with decent mobility to start against the Bears this year -- so everyone except for Kirk Cousins and Brian Hoyer -- has gone over 9.5 rushing yards.
- Jordan Love (Week 1): 12 yards
- Baker Mayfield (Week 2): 17 yards
- Patrick Mahomes (Week 3): 28 yards
- Russell Wilson (Week 4): 13 yards
- Sam Howell (Week 5): 19 yards
Even with the possibility of some last-minute QB kneel-downs, I still like the over.
You can tail Herbert on BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win! Simply sign up below to claim your first bet offer:
Amon-Ra St. Brown Under 84.5 Receiving Yards (-115, Caesars)
- My Projection: 76.7
- Cutoff: 81.5
This mark of 84.5 is St. Brown’s highest of the season, so there’s a little bit of a sell-high dynamic at play here.
This year St. Brown has gone over 100 yards in four games, including last week, when he led the league with 19 targets. This bet has the potential to look incredibly stupid in retrospect.
But the Lions are big home favorites (-8) and could lean heavily on the running game as a result.
On top of that, the Raiders could get back slot CB Nate Hobbs (ankle), who hasn’t played or practiced since suffering an injury on Friday of Week 4 -- but he finally got some work on Thursday and is trending toward a Monday Night Football return to action.
With Hobbs manning the slot (instead of backup Amik Robertson), St. Brown will have a harder matchup.
Plus, the Raiders could be without No. 1 perimeter CB Marcus Peters (back), who didn’t practice on Thursday. With Hobbs healthy and Peters hobbled, Lions QB Jared Goff could funnel more targets than usual to the outside receivers instead of St. Brown in the slot.
You can tail the St. Brown under on Caesars Sportsbook, where your first bet of up to $1,000 is on the house when you sign up below!
