For the third week in a row, I’ve had my best prop betting week of the season.
- Week 6: 17-10, +5.2 units
- Week 7: 20-12, +5.9 units
- Week 8: 22-13, +8.0 units
At some point, the hot streak will cool off, but I’m now very much in the green on NFL player props for the season (112-90, +13.2 units).
In this article last week, I went 3-2 (+0.9 units).
Let’s see if I can keep it up.
Several reminders:
- Bet Tracker: You can find these five props -- and many more -- in our 100% FREE Fantasy Life bet tracker.
- Discord: When I’m posting bets in our tracker, I will sometimes jump into the “Free Picks” channel of our Discord and let everyone know that I’m putting up plays. Join our Discord (again, it’s free).
- Projections: You can find my player projections in the Fantasy Life projections tool! In my experience, these projections are useful for both betting props and making fantasy start/sit decisions.
- Prop Tool: The Fantasy Life prop tool now contains my player projections (as well as our official projections) and compares them to the lines in the prop market to show the bets that we think offer the most opportunity. It’s a great resource.
- Lines Move: Lines can and often do move, and we update our projections regularly, just in case there’s a difference between what you see in the market or on the site versus what you see in this article.
Preamble given, here are five player props I like for Week 9.
Taysom Hill Over 15.5 Rushing Yards (-111, Caesars)
- My Projection: 22.4
- Cutoff: 18.5
I have successfully bet the over on Hill’s rushing yardage prop for the past two weeks, and I still think it’s too low given Hill’s consistent workload and production.
Since last year -- when OC Pete Carmichael assumed playcalling duties after the departure of HC Sean Payton -- Hill has played in 24 games, all of them as a non-QB offensive weapon.
In those games, he has averaged 5.6 carries for 32.4 yards with medians of five carries and 20 yards.
Hill is technically classified as a QB by the Saints, and among all QBs with at least 40 “plays” (passes, sacks, and carries) he is No. 1 in composite EPA and CPOE (+0.231, per RBs Don’t Matter).
Whenever the Saints have put the ball in Hill’s hands, they have been explosive (5.8 yards per carry, 14.5 AY/A since last year), so I expect them to continue to give him opportunities, especially as a runner.
Over the past two weeks, the team has made a concerted effort to get Hill the ball, resulting in a 20% designed rush rate (per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report).
I expect him to have a comparable run rate this week.
You can tail the over at Caesars Sportsbook, where your first bet of up to $1,000 is on the house when you sign up below:
Taylor Heinicke Under 220.5 Passing Yards (-110, bet365)
- My Projection: 204.7
- Cutoff: 212.6
I have a general rule: If I can’t remember if your name is “Taylor,” or “Tyler,” or “Taysom,” I’m going to bet the under on your passing yardage prop.
Also, if you’re not unquestionably better than Desmond Ridder, I’m betting the under on your passing yardage prop -- and I have Ridder and Heinicke rated equivalently in my Week 9 QB value chart.
Falcons HC Arthur Smith has been with the organization for 42 games. In 15 of them -- just 35.7% -- has one of his QBs gone over 220.5 passing yards. Eight of those games were delivered by 2021 Matt Ryan -- and say whatever you want about Ryan in the latter stages of his career, but Heinicke isn’t the passer Ryan was.
This week Heinicke gets his first start in a new system so he could be rough, and the Falcons could have a run-heavy game script as home favorites of more than a field goal, which could result in fewer pass attempts for the team.
Finally, if Heinicke has a poor start to the game, he could be benched, just as Ridder was last week. That’s not likely, but Heinicke is certainly not locked in as the starter.
You can tail the under on Heinicke at bet365, where you can get $365 in bonus bets by signing up below and placing a first bet of just $1!
T.J. Hockenson Under 50.5 Receiving Yards (-115, PointsBet)
- My Projection: 45.8
- Cutoff: 47.5
From the perspective of the points spread, I have the dropoff from Kirk Cousins (Achilles, IR) to Jaren Hall as -6.4 points.
Without Cousins (and with Hall), the Vikings might be the worst team in the league.
Here’s what I said about Hall in my preseason Vikings betting preview:
“Hall is a dual-threat fifth-round rookie with unimpressive size (6-foot and 207 pounds), advanced age (25 years old) and solid production (5,754 yards, 51 TDs passing; 148-657-6 rushing in two starting seasons).”
Hall is undersized and a scrambler, which means he’s less likely than the average QB to stay in the pocket and pass when he feels pressure, which translates into fewer target opportunities for the Vikings pass catchers.
Hall is old -- and generally the younger a QB is when he enters the league, the better.
And Hall is a late-round rookie, which is a negative on its own, and it’s rare for a Day 3 QB to have success if he started just two seasons in college.
With Hall, the offense could struggle mightily to move the ball through the air.
You can tail the under at PointsBet, where you can sign up below to get 10 second-chance bets of up to $100:
Dalton Kincaid Over 3.5 Receptions (-135, bet365)
- My Projection: 4.2
- Cutoff: 3.5 (-150)
Kincaid is one of my favorite fantasy plays this week.
Since returning in Week 7 from a concussion that sidelined him the prior week, Kincaid has 13 receptions on 15 targets in two games, and I expect his usage to stick given that No. 2 TE Dawson Knox (wrist, IR) is out.
Oct 22, 2023; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; Buffalo Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid (86) runs against New England Patriots cornerback J.C. Jackson (29) during the second half at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports
Without SS Vonn Bell and FS Jessie Bates, both of whom departed this past offseason in free agency, the Bengals this year are No. 1 in most receptions allowed to TEs (5.9 per game). The three TEs most comparable to Kincaid to play the Bengals this year -- Mark Andrews (five), Tyler Higbee (five), and George Kittle (nine) -- all easily went over 3.5 receptions.
Although I have him conservatively at 4.2 receptions, I think my projection for Kincaid is probably too low given his matchup recent usage increase. In our official Fantasy Life projections, we have him Kincaid at 4.7 receptions.
Breece Hall Over 17.5 Receiving Yards(-111, BetMGM)
- My Projection: 25.9
- Cutoff: 21.5
In Weeks 1-4, Hall had just eight targets with a 40% snap rate as he returned from last year’s season-ending knee injury, but in Weeks 5-6 the Jets gave him a 60% snap rate and eight targets.
And then last week out of the bye he had a 64% snap rate and nine targets.
In total, since the Jets ramped up his workload in Week 5, Hall has 147 yards receiving on 17 targets in three games and is 3-0 to the over on his receiving yardage prop.
And even with his increased role in the passing game, Hall’s prop has moved up only two yards from the 15.5 we saw in the market in Week 5.
That’s ridiculous.
The market hasn’t adjusted enough on Hall.
You can tail the over on Hall on BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win when you sign up for a new account below:
