Freedman's Props. Best Player Prop Bets for Week 2

Last week I went 3-2 (+0.61 units) on the five props highlighted in this piece.

I hope to do better this week.

A few reminders:

Bet Tracker: You can find these five props – any more – in our 100% FREE Fantasy Life bet tracker.

Discord: When I’m posting bets in our tracker, I will often jump into the “Free Picks” channel of our Discord and let everyone know that I’m putting up plays. Join our Discord (again, it’s free). 

Projections: You can now find my personal player projections in the Fantasy Life projections tool! In my experience, these projections are useful for both betting props and making fantasy start/sit decisions.

Prop Tool: The Fantasy Life prop tool now contains my personal player projections (as well as our official projections) and compares them to the lines in the prop market to show the bets that we think offer the most opportunity. It’s a great resource.

Lines Move: Lines can and often do move, and we update our projections regularly, just in case there’s a difference between what you see in the market or on the site versus what you see in this article.

Preamble given, let’s get to my top five player props for Week 2, listed in reverse order from No. 5 to No. 1.

All of these props can be found on DraftKings Sportsbook, where new users can get up to $1,000 in DK Dollars when you sign up for a new account and make your first deposit. Claim your offer below and start betting today!

Brock Purdy Over 28.5 Pass Attempts (+100, DraftKings)

Purdy is one of my fantasy favorites this week.

I normally hate betting overs, but this number is just too low.

Last week in an emphatic 30-7 road win that barely called for Purdy to throw in the second half, he still managed 30 attempts.

The Rams looked respectable last week, and this is a divisional matchup, so I expect this game to stay close enough long enough for Purdy to operate within the normal flow of the offense.

On top of that, the matchup is great: The Rams have the No. 32 secondary in our unit rankings, so 49ers HC Kyle Shanahan could look to attack them via the passing game more than he otherwise would.

• My Projection: 31.0
• Cutoff: 29.5

Kylen Granson Under 25.5 Receiving Yards (-110, DraftKings)

It’s the most Freedman thing ever for me to bet the under on a low receiving total for a rotational TE on a team with a rookie running QB.

This is how I find my happiness.

I will say in full disclosure that I can see how the over hits.

As I highlight in my Week 2 injury report, the Texans could be without their primary TE defenders in SS Jimmie Ward (hip) and FS Jalen Pitre (chest), neither of whom has practiced this week (as of writing).

But I’m skeptical that Granson will get the target volume to exploit what could be a friendly matchup.

I think this line is inflated because last week he got six targets, which he turned into 39 yards – but he got that usage and production on a career-high 61% snap rate, and the law of gravity suggests that he might have more of an even split with No. 2 Mo Alie-Cox this week. 

• My Projection: 21.1
• Cutoff: 23.5

Isaiah Hodgins Under 33.5 Receiving Yards (-115, DraftKings)

I bet the under on Hodgins last week (29.5 yards), and it cashed, so I’m returning to the money well in the hopes of getting another sip of sweetwater.

You’ll notice that Hodgins’ prop has actually gone up four yards from where it was last week – and that makes a little sense, given that the Giants are in a better situation and should run more offensive plays, score more points, etc.

Jan 15, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; New York Giants wide receiver Isaiah Hodgins (18) makes a catch for a touchdown against the Minnesota Vikings during the first quarter of a wild card game at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports

But here’s the thing - Against the hapless Cardinals, the Giants could get an early lead and then rely on their rushing attack for the supermajority of the game. The Cardinals are unlikely to push the Giants to air it out.

On top of that, Hodgins played fewer snaps (42) than WRs Darius Slayton and Parris Campbell, RB Saquon Barkley, and TE Daniel Bellinger, and he saw fewer targets (3) than Slayton, Campbell, Barkley, and TE Darren Waller.

Based on Week 1, Hodgins is not an important part of the Giants offense.

• My Projection: 27.5
• Cutoff: 30.5

Cam Akers Over 32.5 Rushing Yards (-110, DraftKings)

Akers played behind RB Kyren Williams in Week 1 (53 snaps vs. 28), and he saw all but four of his 22 carries in the second half, when the Rams were grinding down the clock to shorten the game against the Seahawks.

He converted those 22 carries into a hilariously poor 29 yards rushing.

But here’s what I think we should be focusing on: He had a league-high 22 carries. In his past eight games (going back to Week 12 last year), he has averaged 72.3 yards on 16.8 carries and gone over the total of 32.5 yards in every game but one – last week.

If Akers has even half of the 22 carries he saw last week, he should be able to hit the over.

• My Projection: 43.6
• Cutoff: 37.5

Joshua Dobbs Under 184.5 Passing Yards (-115, DraftKings)

I “technically” have this projected to the over. Modeling systems tend to be conservative, so it’s hard for them to capture outliers, and I think Dobbs is an outlier.

As was the case last week, this is my favorite prop on the board, and I imagine I will be on it until this number drops more or until Dobbs either shows marked improvement or is no longer the starter for the Cardinals.

Last week, Dobbs was theoretically “fine” as a passer. He completed 70% of his attempts and didn’t throw an INT. (Let’s set aside his league-high three fumbles, haha.)

And he actually had 30 attempts, which was No. 22 last week.

All of that suggests that Dobbs is an average-ish player, and if that were true then this prop would be reasonable.

Sep 10, 2023; Landover, Maryland, USA; Arizona Cardinals quarterback Joshua Dobbs (9) throws a pass in the 4th quarter against the Washington Commanders at FedExField. Mandatory Credit: Brent Skeen-USA TODAY Sports

But Dobbs is not anywhere close to a league-average QB.

Last week, he had 4.4 yards per attempt. For his career, he has 5.1.

He has a capped ceiling both as an individual player and as an operator of the offense, which is intentionally trying to limit the damage he can do: He was No. 23 last week with 6.4 air yards per attempt.

So when Dobbs does drop back to pass, I doubt he’ll be efficient.

When the Cardinals are on offense, I expect them to lean on RB James Conner and the ground attack in an attempt to control the ball and shorten the game.

I’m skeptical that the Cardinals will have the ball often. Even though the Giants suffered a 40-0 blowout loss last week, they are a class above the Cardinals and should be able to extend drives against a talent-depleted defense with their running and short-passing game.

Finally, he’s always a risk to get benched for rookie QB Clayton Tune.

The range of outcomes easily skews to the downside here.

If Dobbs goes over, I think he’ll barely do it. If he goes under, he could have around 100 yards in a realistic worst-case scenario – and that is actually realistic, given that he had just 132 yards passing last week.

1. My Projection: 192.5
2. Cutoff: 170.5

Previous Best Player Props Pieces 

• Week 1