Full Speed Ahead to the NFL Playoffs, Top Seeds, Best Bets, and More
In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by Guillotine Leagues:
As far as yesterday’s NFL action went, honestly, it mostly stunk. Maybe I’m sour (I most definitely am) over getting bounced in some high-stakes tournaments—but the whole day reminded me of the famous horse-drawing meme in reverse.
Brutal stuff early on, some bordering on unwatchable. If you saw the second half of the Jets game, you catch my drift. I’d rather drink from a hospital mop bucket than sit through that again. Then in a super-shortened two-game late-afternoon window, the MIN/GB game got away from the Packers early, despite winding up closer on the scoreboard than in reality.
What can I say? Sometimes the calamari is chewy and appetizers disappoint. That doesn’t mean you won’t love the main course.
Seven hours of mostly commercial-free football cleared the runway for that ridiculous showdown between the Falcons and Commanders last night. Jayden Daniels’ game-winning touchdown pass put a bow on the best rookie QB season in a while. Definitely worth a re-watch if you missed it.
Anyway, the postseason cannot come fast enough …
You can also check out our NFL Player Props to identify bets on players’ yardage, receptions, TD scoring, and more!
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- 2024 Playoffs: Brackets And Scenarios
- Monday Blitz: Wounded Lions and Niners … Oh My
The Best Sweat in Fantasy Football Just Got Sweatier.
Playoff Guillotine League contests are now LIVE.
AROUND THE WATERCOOLER
The latest analysis and insights from around our world:
👀 Tonight may be a banger of a MNF game, but we’re also looking ahead to Week 18 and the Lions-Vikings killer clash.
🧨 Some takeaways from Week 17 with some offensive fireworks, a big milestone, and fantastic finishes.
🚀 How many passing TDs tonight for Brock Purdy? Find out here.
🔮 If you want to play DFS tonight, we have projections for you.
🏆 The Lions are road favorites, and have a very good record ATS with Jared Goff at the helm.
2024 Playoffs🏆🏈—Bracket And Scenarios
Exciting wins by both the Vikings and Commanders officially set 2024’s NFL playoff wheels in motion. The vast majority of our postseason dance card is currently filled up, with just a small handful of spots yet to be determined.
For reference, I took the liberty of drawing up the current playoff bracket as constituted.
Situations Still Up For Grabs:
NFC’s No. 1 Seed—Minnesota’s victory over Green Bay gets it to 14 wins, putting the Vikings in control of their own destiny for a coveted Wild Card weekend bye. Ignore that No. 1 seeding for now, though, it’s merely a technicality. In a feat of scheduling genius, the conference’s two best teams face off head-to-head in prime time of Week 18 for its top spot. Oh, baby.
NFC South Champ—As the world’s foremost Buccaneer backer, you know I was coming out of my chair yesterday rooting for Baker’s boys. Tampa delivered a 48-14 victory in spectacular fashion, looking as good as anyone in the process. I’ll continue arguing Tamp Bay could make a miracle run if they get in. One game up on Atlanta, TB still needs a win in New Orleans on Sunday, or for the Panthers to beat the Falcons on the road.
AFC No. 7 Seed—Denver ends the conversation with a Week 18 win in Kansas City. Luckily for Denver, the Chiefs locked up the bye already and I’d be surprised to see any starters in the second half. If KC wins, however, that opens the Dolphins’ door to sneak in with a win over the Jets. For reference, these games occur at the same time in the afternoon window. Cincinnati’s also alive somehow, trying to claw their way in but need help. The Bengals find a striped backdoor with a victory in Pittsburgh over the Steelers Saturday plus losses by both Miami and Denver.
Monday Blitz🏈💥—Wounded Lions and 49ers … Oh My
In another layer of the multiverse, we’re gearing up for a monster clash of titans tonight between Detroit and San Fran. Well, if this season taught us anything, it’s to challenge consensus and ranges of outcomes in general. Think about the preseason views on the Cowboys, 49ers, Jets, and Bengals during the summertime compared to now—but that’s a different story for another day.
The bottom line for right now, unfortunately, is that tonight’s game simply doesn’t matter. San Francisco is mathematically eliminated and Detroit is locked into a divisional championship game next week, regardless. Frankly, I don’t blame anyone for not betting this game at all. Never forget our foundational building block, “No bet is better than a bad bet.”
The story of the game has got to be the endless list of defensive injuries to both squads. Don’t quote me but it’s possible the Lions could field a top-10 defense from their IR alone. Meanwhile, San Fran’s missing true impact defenders at each level—Robert Beal up front, Dre Greenlaw in the middle, and Charvarius Ward safeguarding the secondary.
Under normal circumstances, it’d be wheels up for the Lions’ offense in an elevated 50.5 game-total environment, but I’m struggling to get there. Sure, Dan Campbell has rightfully carved his reputation for aggression—it’s what we love about him. That said, are we really assuming he’s completely devalued rest? Or completely forgotten what happened to Sam LaPorta in a similar spot last year? I have my doubts.
Remember, this isn’t just about getting guys a much-needed breather. We’re talking about the conference’s top seed, a bye week in the postseason, and home-field advantage throughout. Flags fly forever.
For transparency’s sake, I’m not touching this over with a 10-foot pole based solely on the fact you might be relying on the combination of Hendon Hooker to Allen Robinson to get you home. No thanks. LEAN: Lions-49ers U50.0
Happy New Year, everyone! I hope you enjoyed today’s Betting Life newsletter! Please feel free to contact me on X @JohnLaghezza with any questions, comments, or feedback. I love hearing back from you!
Hear the Sharps Roar on MNF
Source: Sharp Hunter
And then there was one.
We get set for the season's final Monday Night Football game as the 49ers host the Lions at Levi’s Stadium.
The 49ers find themselves as 3.5-point home underdogs on Monday Night. We’re looking at a consensus total of 50.5. For the Lions, the No. 1 seed in the NFC is still at stake.
At Sharp Hunter, we track thousands of bets daily from the sharpest bettors. And we’ll be doing it all the way through the Super Bowl.
The Lions have a good chance at representing the NFC in the “Big Game,” and the sharps like them on Monday. We’re showing a strong Three-Bag Sharp Score (💰💰💰) on the Lions -3.5.
I’ll be betting with the sharps in in the MNF finale.
The Lions have been an ATS machine the last four seasons—how about 45-20-1 (69%) against the number during that stretch. Per the folks at The Action Network, that’s the best four-year ATS stretch for any team in the Super Bowl Era.
Crazy.
The 49ers have been eliminated from playoff contention and are dealing with major injuries Monday Night—no LB Dre Greenlaw in this one. Safety Ji’Ayir Brown is questionable but did not practice all week. And the 49ers have multiple injuries on the OL. A lot to overcome for a team that has been eliminated from the playoffs.
Those San Francisco injuries on the OL should allow Detroit to get pressure on Brock Purdy on Monday Night.
The 49ers defense has tried to hold it together given all their injuries. One sore spot has been secondary WRs—No. 2 WR have been a problem against SF and they rank just No. 26 against the WR2 this season when you look at DVOA numbers.
Jameson Williams is in a great spot here on Monday.
The Lions have dealt with injuries all season—but they are the better and healthier team. And with Jahmyr Gibbs getting the bulk of the carries, I expect Detroit to score points here.
The public is betting the Lions hard—one website shows over 90% of the money for this game has come in on Detroit.
And our sharps at Sharp Hunter still like Detroit -3.5.
The pubic. The sharps. And your humble Sharp Hunter scribe.
We’re all betting the Lions -3.5 to wrap up the MNF season.
Good luck, and Happy New Year from all of us at Sharp Hunter!
