Giants/Cowboys Game Model: Projected Box Scores, Player Stats, Best Bets, and More
In this breakdown of the Week 13 Cowboys-Giants Thanksgiving Day matchup, I include my early game and player projections — what my model says will be both the final score and the projected player stats (via a box score). It should help with any and all of your props and betting needs… or just some fun as a bit of prognostication as a fan.
I provide general notes on various items (such as betting market data, team trends, weather, travel, rest, injuries, #RevengeGames, etc.), highlight any potential best bets I have on the game, and note any players I like to outperform expectations.
Basically, whatever catches my eye with this game — that's what I'm writing about.
Think of this collection of focused miscellany as just part of my “Freedman Files.”
For my fantasy thoughts on the Week 13 slate, see my “Freedman's Favorites.”
Obligatory notes:
Time Stamp: All data, projections, and analysis are as of 11 p.m. ET on Tue., Nov. 26.
Updates: After I submit this piece, any changing opinions I have will be reflected in my NFL game projections (sides, totals, and MLs for every contest) as well as my weekly fantasy rankings and player projections, all of which are accessible with a FantasyLife+ subscription.
You can get 50% off Fantasy Life with our holiday special here — it makes a wonderful gift!… And if you're looking for free betting insights, give our Fantasy Life Bet Tracker a look, as well as our Betting Life Newsletter and all the actionable articles we have on the site.
Abbreviations: Check out the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use.
Cowboys-Giants Betting Markets & Projections
Betting data is via our Fantasy Life Odds Page.
- Spread & Total: DAL -3.5 | O/U 37
- DAL ML: -185 (DraftKings)
- NYG ML: +170 (Caesars)
- Projections: DAL -1.5 | O/U 37.1 | +/-134.3 ML
A spread of -3.5 means the Cowboys need to win by at least four points to cash. If the Giants win or manage to lose by no more than three, they cash. A total of 37 means that 38 or more points cashes the over, 36 or fewer points cashes the under, and 37 pushes. A -185 ML means that a bettor needs to wager $185 to win $100; a +170 ML, $100 to win $170.
Given that I have this spread on the other side of the key number of -3, my projections strongly lean toward the Giants. And as a Cowboys fan, I don't know how I feel about that.
Cowboys-Giants Projected Score
- Implied Team Totals: Cowboys 20.25 | Giants 16.75
- Projected Scores From My Model: Cowboys 19.3 | Giants 17.8
- Projected Percentage Chance to Win: Cowboys 57.3% | Giants 42.7%
Implied team totals are derived from spread and total.
Cowboys: Projected Box Score
Quarterbacks
| Player | Comp | PaAtt | PaYd | PaTD | INT | RuAtt | RuYd | RuTD | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Rush | 20.7 | 33.1 | 213.4 | 1.13 | 0.75 | 2.2 | 5.9 | 0.05 | 12.4 |
Running Backs, Wide Receivers & Tight Ends
| Player | RuAtt | RuYd | RuTD | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rico Dowdle | 13.6 | 58.1 | 0.31 | 2.4 | 17.1 | 0.12 | 11.3 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 4.4 | 15.6 | 0.13 | 0.8 | 5.1 | 0.02 | 3.3 |
| Hunter Luepke | 1.2 | 4.7 | 0.01 | 1 | 8.5 | 0.02 | 2.1 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 1 | 5.6 | 0.04 | 6.7 | 74.5 | 0.32 | 13.6 |
| Jalen Tolbert | 0 | 0.1 | 0 | 2.8 | 33.4 | 0.19 | 5.9 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 0.5 | 2.9 | 0.01 | 1.4 | 15.7 | 0.11 | 3.3 |
| Jonathan Mingo | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0 | 0.9 | 10.9 | 0.06 | 2 |
| Jalen Brooks | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 14.7 | 0.1 | 2.6 |
| Luke Schoonmaker | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.4 | 23.1 | 0.13 | 4.3 |
| Brevyn Spann-Ford | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 10.3 | 0.06 | 2 |
Fantasy points are half-PPR scoring, and player order is by position and depth chart priority. For our player-focused betting tools, see our Fantasy Life Prop Finder as well as our Player Prop Edge Table.
Giants: Projected Box Score
Quarterbacks
| Player | Comp | PaAtt | PaYd | PaTD | INT | RuAtt | RuYd | RuTD | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy DeVito | 18.7 | 28.8 | 188.1 | 0.79 | 0.64 | 5.6 | 27.5 | 0.15 | 13 |
Running Backs, Wide Receivers & Tight Ends
| Player | RuAtt | RuYd | RuTD | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrone Tracy | 14.3 | 64.9 | 0.39 | 1.8 | 13 | 0.04 | 11.2 |
| Devin Singletary | 5.4 | 23.3 | 0.17 | 1.1 | 7.6 | 0.02 | 4.8 |
| Eric Gray | 1 | 3.5 | 0.02 | 0.6 | 4.6 | 0.02 | 1.4 |
| Malik Nabers | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0 | 5.4 | 59.5 | 0.26 | 10.2 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 0.4 | 2.7 | 0.01 | 4.2 | 35.7 | 0.14 | 6.8 |
| Darius Slayton | 0.1 | 0.6 | 0 | 2.2 | 31.7 | 0.12 | 5.1 |
| Jalin Hyatt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 6.5 | 0.02 | 1 |
| Theo Johnson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 23.8 | 0.11 | 4.1 |
| Chris Manhertz | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.3 | 2.7 | 0.04 | 0.7 |
| Daniel Bellinger | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.3 | 3.1 | 0.03 | 0.6 |
Freedman's Favorite
Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb: In Rush's three starts this year, Lamb has averaged just 5.3 yards per target and been held out of the end zone—but he's also had 34 targets (and three carries), and for the season he still leads the league with 77 receptions. On a short week, the Cowboys could once again be without No. 2 WR Brandin Cooks (knee, IR) and TE Jake Ferguson (concussion), so Lamb could see double-digit targets for the … counts notes … sixth game in a row. The Giants are No. 32 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 1 WRs (32.4%, per FTN).
From my Week 13 Freedman's Favorites (WR Edition).
Cowboys: 2024 Betting Records
- ATS: 3-8, -47.9% ROI | Favorites: 0-2, -100% ROI | Home: 0-5, -100% ROI
- ML: 4-7, 1.3% ROI | Favorites: 1-1, -30.6% ROI | Home: 0-5, -100% ROI
- Over: 7-4, 21.3% ROI | Home: 4-1, 52.9% ROI
Betting performance data is via Action Network.
The Cowboys this year have had the league's worst home-field advantage. No surprise there.
Giants: 2024 Betting Records
- ATS: 3-8, -48.4% ROI | Underdogs: 3-7, -43.2% ROI | Road: 2-2, -5.5% ROI
- ML: 2-9, -38.6% ROI | Underdogs: 2-8, -32.5% ROI | Road: 2-2, 68.8% ROI
- Under: 8-3, 39.6% ROI | Road: 2-2, -4.5% ROI
In the Giants and Cowboys, we have two teams that have markedly underperformed market expectations this year.
What happens when an over team plays an under team?
Cowboys: Betting Trends
- HC Mike McCarthy on Thanksgiving: 1-3 ATS, -52.3% | 2-2 ML, -41.9% ROI
- HC Mike McCarthy on Thanksgiving: 4-0 Over, 91.4%
- HC Mike McCarthy vs. Brian Daboll: 3-2 ATS, 15.2% ROI | 5-0 ML, 44.8% ROI
- QB Cooper Rush: 6-3 ATS, 27.6% | 6-3 ML, 107.3% ROI
McCarthy's data is with Cowboys only.
At the time of his season-ending hamstring injury in Week 9, I had QB Dak Prescott projected as +5.5 points relative to Rush in our Fantasy Life QB ATS Value Chart—but the market has regularly discounted the backup.
Giants: Betting Trends
- HC Brian Daboll Without QB Daniel Jones: 9-3 ATS, 39.9% | 5-8 ML, 17.0% ROI
- HC Brian Daboll With QB Daniel Jones: 16-18 ATS, -9.9% | 13-20-1 ML, -1.6% ROI
- QB Tommy DeVito: 4-3 ATS, 9.1% | 3-4 ML, 40.9% ROI
- Underdogs Off Loss of More Than 3 TDs: 290-233-14 ATS, 7.3% ROI
- Underdogs Off Loss of More Than 3 TDs: 172-361-2 ML, 8.4% ROI
I'm not saying that Jones was the problem with the Giants… but the betting market has historically overvalued him relative to his backups, especially DeVito. Coming off an embarrassing 30-7 loss to the Buccaneers, the Giants might be undervalued by the market.
Cowboys-Giants External Factors
- Home-Field Advantage: Cut in half because the Giants are in division and play on turf.
- Travel: The last game the Giants played outside of New York was Nov. 10.
- Rest: The Giants have played one game since Nov. 11. This will be the Cowboys third game since Nov. 18.
Cowboys: Notable Injuries
- TE Jake Ferguson (concussion): Hasn't practiced or played since exiting Week 11 early.
- WR Brandin Cooks (knee, IR): No guarantee he returns this week.
- RG Zack Martin (shoulder, ankle): Exited Week 11 early, hasn't practiced or played since.
- LG Tyler Smith (ankle, knee): Missed last week but might play this week after back-to-back limited practices.
- CB Trevon Diggs (groin, knee): Missed last week and did not practice on Tuesday.
- EDGE Marshawn Kneeland (knee): Hasn't practiced this week after returning from injury last week.
- LB Eric Kendricks (shoulder, groin): Yet to practice this week, but that might just be veteran treatment?
- LB Nick Vigil (foot): Hasn't practiced but routinely plays without practicing.
The Cowboys are not at all healthy entering this matchup.
Giants: Notable Injuries
- RT Jermaine Eluemunor (quadriceps): Yet to practice this week. With LT Andrew Thomas (foot, IR) already out, the Giants could be missing their starting OL bookends.
- EDGE Azeez Ojulari (toe): Hasn't practiced since leaving Week 12 early.
- QB Tommy DeVito (right forearm): Downgraded to limited on Tuesday after practicing fully on Monday. I don't get too focused on midweek additions to the practice report unless a guy doesn't practice, so I still think it's likelier than not he starts. If he doesn't, the Giants will get a notable upgrade with backup QB Drew Lock.
At some point, injuries matter—and the Giants are much healthier.
Cowboys-Giants #RevengeGames
"And thus the whirligig of time brings in his revenges."
- Feste, Twelfth Night
Does it matter that QB Cooper Rush played with the Cowboys in 2017-19, signed with the Giants in 2020, and then was moved to the practice squad before rejoining the Cowboys in October of that same year and staying with them ever since?
Probably not.
Nevertheless, #RevengeGame.
Cowboys-Giants Best Bet
It's disgusting to bet on the Giants, but who are the Cowboys to be favored against any opponent—especially by more than a field goal?
The Cowboys are injured. They're at a rest-and-travel disadvantage. They have a minimal home-field advantage, and it's diminished further because the Giants are divisional opponents who also play on turf.
Sans QB Daniel Jones, the Giants have been notably profitable with HC Brian Daboll and QB Tommy DeVito, and they could have a depressed market value because of their poor performance last week.
I can't believe I'm doing this, but …
Best Bet: Giants +3.5 (-110, DraftKings) … and maybe even +170 (Caesars)
Abbreviations
- Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
- Against the Spread (ATS)
- Over/Under (O/U)
- Team Total (TT)
- Moneyline (ML)
- Return on Investment (ROI)
- Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
- Expected Points Added (EPA)
- Success Rate (SR)
- Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
- AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
- Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
- Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
- Short Down and Distance (SDD)
- Long Down and Distance (LDD)
