In today's Betting Life Newsletter:
Welcome back for the next installment of our MLB team preview series, aimed to give you a leg up on preseason betting markets with all the most recent analyses.
Today, we tackle a pair of last year’s Wild Card teams from the American League Central Division—the Detroit Tigers and Kansas City Royals
Conundrum in the Central
Join me as we walk through anticipated Opening Day lineups with some help from my compadre Mike Kurland’s tracker, plus five-category BAT X projections, and star-ranked rotations.
And, of course, what kind of betting newsletter would this be if we didn’t wrap up with my favorite future bet for each team we cover?
📕 We’ve archived all of our MLB team betting previews here along with my correlating futures plays. Give them a read when you have a minute! 📕
🏈 To my fantasy football people, we have you covered on Fantasy Life:
Ian Hartitz is breaking down all 32 NFL teams’ needs.
Thor Nystrom just came out with his QB rankings for the 2025 NFL Draft.
And I would be remiss if I didn’t point you in the direction of Chris Allen’s FANTASTIC review of the 2015 NFL Draft and what has become of the names. Remember David Johnson??? It’s an awesome trip down memory lane.
On to the Midwest! Click this button below 👇 to head to our futures page!
WHO’S THE FAVORITE IN THE AL CENTRAL?
Do people still have watercoolers? Around the Slack? Here’s what I’m reading …
🔮 On the eve of the NFL Combine Freedman has a new NFL Mock Draft.
👀 Speaking of NFL prospects, Thor was joined by Ray Garvin to tackle overrated and underrated players.
🏈 Omarion Hampton’s scouting report will get you hyped for the NFL Draft.
0️⃣ How to avoid taking zeros in best ball drafts.
🧀 How close are there Green Bay Packers to joining the NFL elite?
📈 Is it ever too early for fantasy football rankings? Never!
⚾🐯MLB Team Preview—Detroit Tigers🐯⚾
Detroit capped off a breakout season in 2024 with a 7-3 run down the stretch to outlast Seattle in the American League’s Wild Card race for their first playoff appearance in a decade. Now factor in this team’s youth—not a single Tiger in the projected lineup or rotation has celebrated their 30th birthday yet and you can see why the Motor City faithful couldn’t be more excited to run it back in 2025.
And Tigers President of Baseball Operations Scott Harris ventured into the free agent market to make multiple splash signings this offseason. You love to see it as a team’s competitive window finally opens.
Projected Opening Day Lineup w/BAT X Projections: (BA / R / RBI / HR / SB)
- Parker Meadows, CF: .229 / 66 / 54 / 16 / 17
- Gleyber Torres, 2B: .252 / 71 / 69 / 17 / 9
- Riley Greene, LF: .260 / 77 / 72 / 20 / 6
- Kerry Carpenter, DH: .250 / 59 / 63 / 20 / 4
- Matt Vierling, RF: .253 / 61 / 55 / 13 / 8
- Colt Keith, 1B: .252 / 58 / 57 / 13 / 4
- Jace Jung, 3B: .216 / 61 / 58 / 14 / 3
- Jake Rogers, C: .208 / 34 / 38 / 11 / 2
- Trey Sweeney, SS: .214 / 29 / 26 / 7 / 6
Hitting Overview: In December, Detroit acquired former Yankee Gleyber Torres to man the keystone as an early Christmas gift for Tiger fans. Adding a quality bat with a solid approach never hurts, especially on a team that’s struggled regarding contact and elevated strikeout rates. Torres not only brings with him a track record of production (frankly, I think Derek’s projections are too low on power), but adds another on-base-minded bat into the fold.
Wouldn’t be a Betting Life team preview without mentioning teams chasing an archetype, and Detroit’s no exception. The Tigers look for quality pitch selection, lift, and baseline power—per Trumedia, not one hitter in this year’s projected lineup posted a chase rate over 33.3%, groundball rate over 44.0%, or maximum exit velocity under 110.0 mph.
The bottom of the order could still use a boost, which got me wondering if another move is in the works. Could implying Trey Sweeney will start at shortstop possibly be a motivational tool to get Javier Báez back on track after posting career bests in both zone-contact and swinging strike rates? I’m starting to hope so because competing for the division might be too tall an order if your order’s entire bottom third is going to hit below .220.
The Tigers are
really close to being a legitimate contender for years to come if they maintain this trajectory.
Projected Opening Day Rotation (⭐/5):
- Tarik Skubal, LHP:⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Jack Flaherty, RHP:⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Reese Olson, RHP:⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Casey Mize, RHP:⭐⭐
- Jackson Jobe, RHP:⭐⭐
Starting Pitching Overview: That’s a lot of stars up top, and rightfully so. Tarik Skubal finally fulfilled the prospect prophecy by delivering 192 sterling innings of work and a Cy Young to Detroit Rock City for the first time since Max Scherzer achieved it back in 2013. Unlike other teams with brilliant young pitchers that refuse to surround them with the necessary talent to thrive (cough, Pirates, cough)—the Tigers pounced.
Talk about making offseason waves, Detroit went out and landed Jack Flaherty, one of the best available starters this winter. Flare, as he’s affectionately nicknamed, totally broke out for his best season since 2019 by ditching his Cutter for more Curveballs and Sliders—each boasting a ridiculous +36% whiff rate. I’m no pitching coach, but throwing your best pitches a lot more sounds like a pretty good idea.
While the efficacy of the Skubal/Flaherty one-two punch won’t be shocking to anyone, the emergence of 25-year-old Reese Olson just might. Detroit’s sophomore righty established himself as a player to watch after checking every critical box on the spreadsheet while posting a Quality Start in +40% of GS—3.51 xERA, 1.18 WHIP, 50.6% Groundball, 0.56 HR/9. Don’t be fooled by the underwhelming 21.7% strikeout either, he’s pitching to grounders—Olson boasted two separate pitches (Slider, Changeup) with a max .287 xSLG and min 42.7% whiff rate. That’s elite stuff on multiple secondaries for any analytical novices out there.
If DET gets anything at all from former top prospects Casey Mize and Jackson Jobe at the backend, they’ll be favored in the vast majority of games on their way to back-to-back playoff berths for the first time since 2011-2012.
WHAT ARE TARIK SKUBAL’S ODDS TO LEAD MLB IN STRIKEOUTS?
⚾👑MLB Team Preview—Kansas City Royals👑⚾
Kansas City finished with the same 86-76 record as the Tigers to finish 6.5 games behind the Guardians for their first playoff berth in exactly 10 years. Unfortunately for the Royals, late-season struggles squandered a once-comfortable Wild Card lead, forcing them to play starters to the very last day. They did manage to bump the Orioles in a short series, 2-0, but lacked the power pitching to overcome the Yanks in the ALDS—something left unaddressed this offseason.
Projected Opening Day Lineup w/BAT X Projections: (BA / R / RBI / HR / SB)
- Jonathan India, 2B: .252 / 74 / 60 / 14 / 12
- Bobby Witt Jr., SS: .297 / 109 / 98 / 32 / 39
- Vinnie Pasquantino, 1B: .260 / 69 / 77 / 19 / 1
- Salvador Perez, C: .250 / 63 / 86 / 24 / 0
- Michael Massey, 2B: .243 / 51 / 55 / 14 / 5
- Hunter Renfroe, RF: .222 / 41 / 46 / 12 / 1
- MJ Melendez, LF: .228 / 57 / 58 / 17 / 6
- Maikel Garcia, 3B: .262 / 65 / 47 / 7 / 22
- Kyle Isbel, CF: .231 / 52 / 41 / 10 / 14
Hitting Overview: From a broad perspective, this lineup’s pretty dangerous one through nine—highlighted, of course, by last year’s runner-up for AL Most Valuable Player, Bobby Witt Jr. Most of the band’s back together for 2025, but will IT be enough to build off last season’s achievements?
There are two general pathways to offensive success in MLB, hitting lots of homers or a high collective on-base rate. Despite making the playoffs, KC ranked bottom-15 in both and addressed the latter by only signing 2021’s NL Rookie of the Year Jonathan India. The Reds’ former infielder provides a much-needed leadoff archetype—a refusal to chase outside the zone, elite contact rates, minuscule swing-and-miss metrics plus a willingness to take walks. Adding a career +.350 OBP guy in front of one of the game’s premier hitters never hurt anyone.
That said, you’d never guess it, but Kansas City has a type (don’t they all?). The problem is, not all skills necessarily translate into production. Let me see if I can explain this without tying myself in a knot.
Striking out is bad (I know, epic award-winning 4-D analysis over here). However, it’s not the end of the world when it represents a hitter’s aggressive nature in the zone while attempting to strike the ball hard (the thing that matters most). Eight of the nine projected batters posted a K% in 2024 of 20% or lower, which sounds phenomenal on the surface. The thing is, if it doesn’t manifest in elevated hard-hit rates, the offense is likely being too passive in the box—for reference, not a single Royal posted a +38% HH per Fangraphs. Not great.
As much as I like the individual pieces, the whole may not be greater than the sum of its parts.
Projected Opening Day Rotation (⭐/5):
- Cole Ragans, LHP:⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Seth Lugo, RHP:⭐⭐⭐
- Michael Wacha, RHP:⭐⭐⭐
- Michael Lorenzen, RHP:⭐⭐
- Alec Marsh/Kris Bubic:⭐⭐
Pitching Overview: The Royal’s rotation is giving me very similar vibes as the offense—a bona fide stud at the top, surrounded by a general lack of pop behind it. When it comes to ace Cole Ragans, you’ll get no complaints from me. In his first full year as a starter, Ragans dazzled across 186 IP, making all 33 starts to leave the Rangers with a serious case of seller’s remorse. However, I have my questions regarding the possibility of a repeat from last year’s No. 5 seed.
The rest of the staff isn’t terrible, don’t get me wrong. Outside of Lorenzen, there are very few free passes being given out or long balls surrendered (MLB’s version of the Deathly Hallows). That particular combination can work across a marathon regular season, but often falls short when facing the best offenses. Sound familiar?
Maybe I’m wrong and spending too much time with my big nose buried in the spreadsheets, but I want more strikeout stuff. In 2024, per Trumedia no one besides Old King Cole boasted a K-BB% over 15%, whiff rate over 24%, or chase rate over 28%.
Again, as much as you like strike-throwing lunchpail types, it presents a major challenge under the brightest lights against the stiffest competition. Barring any late additions and devoid of any impact prospects on the horizon, I’m expecting a step back from the Royals in 2025.
CAN BOBBY WITT WIN THE AL MVP?
🔮 Look Into My Crystal Ball: Quick Hit Futures Bets 🔮
Please note the reduced risk on future plays before anything else. If you’re wondering why these wagers are all fractional, it’s not just because I’m responsible, care about you, or happen to be very good at what I do.
It’s important whenever open-ended betting to always keep bankroll management in mind. Speaking from experience, it’s way too easy to wind up with a season-long ticket carrying more risk exposure than we’re comfortable with. Please bet responsibly, it’s the key to sustainability—you can’t make any money if your account’s at $0.
THE BET: Detroit Tigers To Win AL Central (+270) Risk 0.50u ONLY
Hopefully, everyone’s feeling like they leave our previews with as good a read on these teams as I do. For me, betting futures is, of course, about surviving as I mentioned above, but also looking for longer odds at minimized risk. You’ll notice very few, if any, baseline (-110) bets on my future tickets for one simple reason—I struggle to rationalize sitting my hard-earned money on the shelf for six months at a time. We can (and will) be getting better prices offered at scale nonstop as soon as the season kicks off.
While the Indians’ full preview won’t be out until Monday I don’t think they’ve much (if any) of a step forward. They’ll be relying on a bunch of unproven arms with well-documented injury histories, and it feels like they’ve been the listed favorite almost as a default setting.
The AL Central played out so tightly last year, it’s anyone’s game to win. I think the Tigers' acquisition of Jack Flaherty to complement Tarik Skubal puts them over the top to win the division. Detroit’s also got starters waiting in the wings and a front office trying to prove to the baseball universe they mean business. If the race is close at the deadline, DET feels like the most likely team to add impact pieces and fill any holes.
Hope you enjoyed today’s Betting Life newsletter! Please feel free to contact me on X @JohnLaghezza with any questions, comments, or feedback. I love hearing back from you!
WHO’S GOING NO. 1 IN THE NFL DRAFT?
