The Jets and Browns meet this Thursday to officially kick off the 2023-24 preseason with the Hall of Fame Game in Dayton, Ohio. The game starts at 8:00 EST and will be nationally broadcast on NBC (and streamed live on Peacock).
If you’re new to this, the Hall of Fame Game is essentially an extra preseason contest thrown in by the league to help celebrate the new Hall of Fame inductees for the up and coming year. Since teams involved in the game are being asked to navigate an extra preseason game (four instead of three) to accommodate this schedule anomaly, we rarely see any starters or big names from either of the sides take part.
Hall of Fame Game Preview: Cleveland Browns vs New York Jets
This year’s version of the game features a couple of the more intriguing teams in the NFL. Both the Browns and Jets have dominated the headlines the last two seasons thanks to some major personnel changes at the QB position. Cleveland was in the headlines last year when they signed/traded for Deshaun Watson but have managed to stay out of the headlines this offseason which has likely been a huge relief for Kevin Stefanski, who is entering his fourth year as Head Coach of the Browns.
The Jets, on the hand, have dominated the 2023 offseason headlines to date. They made the move to bring in Aaron Rodgers after the draft, who has been his usual gregarious self and seems to be enjoying the added spotlight of being in New York. The Jets have also been the subject of public taunts from Broncos Head Coach Sean Payton, who criticized Jets OC Nathaniel Hackett for the mess that was the 2022-23 Denver Broncos.
Rodgers and the entire Jets organization took the bait and responded to Payton in the media sparking off a firestorm about how the eventual meeting of these two teams in Week 5 will go down. Outside of the Payton news, New York has also been heavily linked to Dalvin Cook as concerns about Breece Hall’s ability to be 100% for Week 1 linger. Hall tore his ACL and seems to be on his way back but has yet to practice.
As mentioned above, the Browns have far fewer going concerns. There is no major injury news to monitor (as of now) and the most pressing concern for them seems to be ensuring veterans like Amari Cooper, Nick Chubb and Deshaun Watson make it through camp and are 100% for Week 1. Likely a good sign for Cleveland is that the biggest news from Browns' camp thus far has been the “wind sprints” that the players had to perform after a fight broke out in an early practice.
The effort is concerning but let’s be honest, wind sprints just don’t carry the same weight when you’re a grown adult (making millions of dollars) as they do when you’re a high school junior trying to crack the starting JV roster.
News and notes
While the Hall of Fame Game is somewhat of a glorified practice session, there are still a ton of best ball drafts and NFL DFS contests around the industry to take part in for this first NFL game. Here are some important notes about what each team’s personnel usage should look like for this game.
- The Browns are sitting quarterback Deshaun Watson and backup Joshua Dobbs as well. They plan to start former Viking third-round pick Kellen Mond and then give the entire second half to former UCLA star and fifth-round draft pick Dorian Thompson-Robinson.
- Thompson-Robinson ran for 21 TDs in his final 24 games of college and should benefit from lackluster defensive schemes and playing against third-stringers in the second half.
- The Jets are going to start Zach Wilson in this game and attempt to build up his confidence – it’s worth noting that Wilson will likely face a ton of second and third-string players as Stefanski ran his starters through a full practice on Tuesday, suggesting they will all sit out on Thursday.
- WR and second day draft pick Cedric Tillman has been creating some noise in Cleveland camp and will likely start with Mond. The two connected for a big play this week and Tillman should get good run in this game making him an excellent DFS pick to stack with Mond.
- As mentioned above, QB Zach Wilson will start for the Jets but it’s unlikely we see him for more than a few drives. Tim Boyle and former CFL star Chris Streveler will take over after that.
- Streveler threw for five TDs in three preseason appearances last year and also ran for over 30 yards in two of those three games. He’ll be another excellent DFS target.
- The Browns running back depth chart is fairly barren. It’s unlikely backup Jerome Ford plays much, or at all, and he has missed a couple of recent practices for personal reasons.
- Third-string RB Demetric Felton could get some play and don’t be shocked if UDFA Hassan Hall gets lots of snaps in the second half.
Dec 11, 2022; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski calls a play in the fourth quarter during a Week 14 NFL game against the Cincinnati Bengals, Sunday, Dec. 11, 2022, at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati. The Cincinnati Bengals won, 23-10. Mandatory Credit: Kareem Elgazzar-USA TODAY Sports
Betting preview
For betting purposes, it’s worth noting how strong these two sides have been in the preseason. Robert Saleh has produced a 5-0-1 straight-up record in his first two preseasons as Jets head coach while Kevin Stefanski (who didn’t get a preseason in 2020) has a 4-2 straight-up record with the Browns – with both losses coming by a single point.
Neither side looks like a team you want to fade in this spot but some surprising early week line movement, and one very publicly backed side, has led to what looks like a decent opportunity for the first preseason game of 2023. The picks for the 2023 Hall of Fame Game are below.
Browns +1.5 (-105, BetMGM)
The line in this game has completely flipped. Cleveland was as high as -2.5 in some places last weekend but the Jets now sit as -1.5 favorites. With Aaron Rodgers in town and Hard Knocks approaching, bettors seem eager to jump on the Jets bandwagon as early as possible this season.
Zach Wilson was also formally announced as the starter for this Thursday, and his bromance with Aaron Rodgers has been a highlight for Jets beat reporters, with videos of the two talking shop making the rounds on social media. It’s a fun story (if you’re into that sort of thing) but also one that is not likely to have any effect on this game.
That’s because there is a good chance Wilson doesn’t play much more than a drive or two and after he leaves the Jets will be left with Tim Boyle and Chris Streveler vs the Clevland crew of Kellen Mond and Dorian Thompson-Robinson. It’s expected that the Browns will start Mond but give Thompson-Robinson the entire second half.
The rushing upside of the Browns QBs is a pretty big advantage in a game like this. Both teams will be rolling out vanilla defensive schemes so if a play breaks down or the passing game stalls it’s more likely the Browns will be able to improvise and pick up some cheap yards.
Regardless of whether that theory pans out, this bet still hinges on the line. The Browns have never lost by more than a point in any preseason game they have played under Kevin Stefanski so any chance to grab them as underdogs feels like a pretty decent opportunity. By doing so we get the best of both worlds as it also allows us to fade a turnover-prone quarterback like Wilson and evade the current Jets hype, which is getting distastefully frothy by the day.
Over 33.5 points (-110, BetMGM)
As mentioned above, both of the head coaches in this game love to play for the win during this time of year. For betting purposes that’s meant less wasted end-of-game drives and higher point totals for both sides. Since 2021, Stefanski’s Browns have gone over 33.5 points in four out of six preseason games while Saleh’s Jets have hit over 33.5 points in five of six preseason matches.
The fact we have so many mobile quarterbacks available (Thompson-Robinson, Mond, Streveler) also means both offenses should have ways to move the ball if the passing games starts to flounder. While the trend for this game has favored unders, the over looks like the slightly more appealing side this season if you’re looking to make a small wager on the total.
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