In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by Guillotine Leagues:
It has been said that the Super Bowl is like Christmas for sports bettors. It’s not a particularly original thought, but it doesn’t mean it isn’t true. All the different festivities—the game, the halftime show, the commercials—and the fact that you can bet on all of it makes this a day that cannot be replicated.
With that in mind, I’m going to take a little stab at some poetry. I’m definitely not Billy Shakespeare, but it’s my way of honoring one of the best days of the year.
Twas the day before the big game down in New Orleans
With the Chiefs and the Eagles the lone remaining teams
There’s not much time left for final preparations
Before hunkering down in our Super Bowl stations
Did we miss any props in the large sportsbook menus?
What does the food look like at our Super Bowl venues?
Do our numbers look good in our workplace square pools?
Or are we donating again to those overpaid fools?
Have we already decided on a big game beverage?
Do our DFS lineups have enough leverage?
What about the coin toss and Gatorade color?
Or can the national anthem make me a few dollars?
Will Mahomes or Barkley take home MVP?
Or will a surprise contender win the trophy?
One thing is certain, it’s been a heck of a year
And I wish you good fortune and Super Bowl cheer.
Merry Super Bowl Eve, my friends. It’s been an honor to go on this journey with you all season, and I look forward to (hopefully) doing it again next year!
Take on Your Friends
Free head-to-head Super Bowl Guilloteenies are LIVE.
The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:
🥳 You can always count on cooterdoodle and Jake Trowbridge to bring the fun. They break down some 100% fake props for the Super Bowl.
😱 Speaking of cooterdoodle, scared money parlays are back. The only thing scarier than some of these plays is missing out if they hit.
💰 If you’re looking for some more reasonable betting options, Freedman breaks down how he’s betting Super Bowl LIX.
🏈 ICYMI—The Fantasy Life crew has been grinding out content all week. Fortunately, we’ve condensed down the best bits.
💧 Looking to extend the length of your Super Bowl sweat? Some additional bets to consider adding to your parlays.
🥤 The sharps are hitting … Gatorade color? Green/Yellow takes over as a big favorite.
🪓 Still time to draft free Super Bowl Guilloteenies.
⭐️ The Dallas Cowboys have needs. On both sides of the line.
Super Bowl Prop Betting Do’s and Don’ts
by Matt LaMarca
Do: Have Fun
This is a big one for me personally. As someone who tries their hardest to make +EV bets, the sheer volume of options on the board can be a bit overwhelming. We obviously still want to make money, but trying to find an edge on every single offering is nearly impossible.
With that in mind, it’s OK to just make some bets for entertainment purposes. If you see a bet that intrigues you, don’t be afraid to fire on it. This is the last game of the season, and we won’t have real NFL football to bet on for the next seven months.
Of course, you should still be betting responsibly, and there are a few different wagers that are worth scratching off entirely…
Don’t: Be a Sucker
While I’m all for expanding your portfolio during the Super Bowl, some bets are just unequivocally bad. Take the coin toss. If you want to bet on the coin toss, you absolutely can. But we know that’s a 50:50 proposition. That means that the fair odds on that line are even money (+100). If you’re paying -105 or -110 for an even-money wager, it’s simply not a good bet.
Fortunately, DraftKings is offering +100 odds on the coin toss, so if you want to bet it, that’s the place to do so.
That said, there are other props that are squarely on my “Do Not Bet” list. A Scorigami at +2500? Absolutely ridiculous. Do you know how hard it is to hit a Scorigami in 2025? There have been more than 16,000 total games played in NFL history. Do you really think +2500—or a 3.85% implied probability—is a fair line? If you really want to go down this route, I’d much rather try to bet on the exact score. Those offer a significantly higher payout, and you don’t have to bet on the game ending on something ridiculous like 29-4.
The same goes for betting on an “octopus.” That occurs when the same player converts a touchdown and a two-point conversion, resulting in eight points scored. The octopus is as low as +1040 at some locations, yet it’s happened once in exactly 30 Super Bowls that have featured two-point conversions. Hard pass.
A general rule of thumb is that if the sportsbook is willing to let you bet on something happening but won’t let you bet against it, there’s a good chance it’s a sucker bet. Hunting longshots is fun, but you’re much better off building SGPs or targeting some player-specific longshots.
Do: Build a “Group Parlay”
If you’re watching the game with friends, there is nothing better than building a bet together and throwing a couple of bucks on it. It can be as many people as you want, but everyone throws in a leg, and everyone sweats the parlay together.
This is truly a win-win scenario. The best case is that the bet wins, and you and your friends collect a nice chunk of change. That’s the type of thing that you’ll be talking about for years to come.
However, even losing scenarios have value. Did everyone come through except for Greg? Congrats, Greg; you are now officially the group scapegoat. Enjoy wearing that label until next year, when maybe someone else will screw things up.
Did the whole ticket bomb? You’ll at least be able to laugh about how badly you and your friends saw this game playing out. Misery loves company. Speaking of …
Don’t: Be a Sore Loser
There is nothing worse than the person who ruins the vibe at the Super Bowl party because they’re sour about all their bets losing. Losing sucks. No one likes to lose. But if it happens, you have to take it on the chin and keep moving.
Remember, this is our last real NFL game until September. Enjoy every second. Grab that extra chicken wing or adult beverage, sit back, and relax. A bad day of NFL betting beats a good day of just about anything else. After all, we can always get it back next year.
PLAYER PROP BETS FOR SUPER BOWL LIX
Let’s Get Weird
by Matt LaMarca
Looking for some non-traditional Super Bowl props to consider? I’ve got a few worth targeting:
Over 4.5 Players to Record a Rushing Attempt For the Chiefs (+110; FanDuel)
This week’s Fantasy Life Podcast covered this one, and I think +110 is a solid value. Three players are absolute locks to record a carry in this contest—Patrick Mahomes, Isiah Pacheco, and Kareem Hunt—while Xavier Worthy feels pretty close to a lock. That means we just need to find one more carry from somewhere.
There are plenty of different guys who can fill that void. Maybe Samaje Perine gets an attempt. Travis Kelce has been known to handle the “tush push” responsibilities for Kansas City. Perhaps a receiver other than Worthy will get an end-around. Heck, the punter had a carry in the Divisional Round win over the Texans.
One way or another, I like the Chiefs’ chances of getting to 5 in this contest.
Chiefs Shortest Punt Over 40.5 Yards (-115; DraftKings)
This is a weird one, and I can’t say I’m an expert in special teams bets. However, I don’t expect a ton of punting in this contest. The total sits at a respectable 48.5 points, and I like the game to go over. Indoor postseason contests have gone over the total at a really high clip, and five of the past seven indoor Super Bowls have gone over the total as well.
Chiefs’ punter Matt Araiza also has a monster leg. If you’re not familiar with his game, this man was nicknamed “Punt God” while at San Diego State. He averaged 48.8 yards per punt during the regular season, and he’s punted the ball just four times during the playoffs.
In the Super Bowl, expect both teams to be pretty aggressive with their offenses. I don’t expect to see a lot of punts from around midfield, which is typically where the shortest punts come from. As long as Araiza doesn’t have to pooch one, this number seems a bit too low.
Each Team To Score 3+ Rushing Touchdowns (+7000; DraftKings)
This is a mega longshot, but I don’t think it’s all that crazy.
The Eagles’ side of things looks pretty feasible at a minimum. Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts had 3 rushing touchdowns apiece in the NFC Championship game. They averaged 2.0 rushing touchdowns per game during the regular season, so it’s not that big of an exaggeration for them to get to 3 in the Super Bowl. Hurts had 3 rushing touchdowns against the Chiefs in their Super Bowl matchup two years ago, so it’s definitely doable.
The Chiefs are the far bigger question mark, but it’s also not impossible. Patrick Mahomes had 2 rushing scores in the AFC Championship, and Kareem Hunt added a third.
I’m not expecting this bet to hit, but I think +7000 is actually a pretty reasonable number. It translates to an implied probability of less than 1.5%, and I think the true odds are at least slightly better.
HOW ABOUT SOME SUPER BOWL MVP BETS?
