In today's Betting Life Newsletter, presented by FantasyLife+:
Happy Thanksgiving one and all! First off, we’re so grateful for you making the Betting Life Newsletter—and hopefully the Fantasy Life Newsletter—a part of your daily life.
We hope you’ve enjoyed the content from people like John Laghezza, Matt LaMarca, and Geoff Ulrich. This being a holiday, we’re giving them the day off, but we’ve got some football happening today, and you have some bets to make. And, sheesh, do we have some content to bring you this morning!
We have individual game breakdowns (with projected box scores) by Matthew Freedman on our Turkey Day tripleheader: Lions-Bears, Cowboys-Giants, and Packers-Dolphins. All those games have plenty of angles and edges you can exploit to bring home some winnings when you’re having a slice of cherry pie. Yes, ask Freedman about his Thanksgiving pie rankings.
Our Watercooler will point you to the rest of our great Thanksgiving-centric content, even down to a fun props cheatsheet like which QB will rush for the third-most yards today. (Hint: It’s probably not Jared Goff or Tua Tagovailoa) And smash the OVER on Turducken references, BTW.
Lastly, it wouldn’t be Thanksgiving Weekend without a Black Friday Sale, so Matthew Berry himself broke the news on an amazing offer. Don’t forget promo code BF50. Let’s go!
OK, enough of us. Time to serve up some Thanksgiving goodness, with or without Laghezza’s cranberry sauce. Once again, Happy Thanksgiving!
Matthew did it again...
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What else is in today’s newsletter?
The Watercooler: Turkey Day Cheatsheet and more
Matthew Freedman’s Game Models for all three of today’s games
AROUND THE WATERCOOLER
The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:
❤️ How about what we’re not thankful for? Matthew’s Week 13 Love/Hate.
💰Thanksgiving Day Props, Pick’Em and Best Bets, Geoff Ulrich has them all.
🍗 Let’s have seconds of Pete’s Thanksgiving Best Bets, Props, and DFS Primer.
🔮 Geoff is back with another cheatsheet, this one featuring his Thanksgiving DFS picks and props.
🤔 Fade the popular bets on Thanksgiving at your own risk. Get pie instead.
💰Thor’s CFB best bets include a very deep Minnesota receiving prop. Like super deep.
Packers vs. Dolphins Game Model
In this breakdown of the Week 13 Packers-Dolphins Thanksgiving Day matchup, I include my early-game and player projections. Basically, what my model says will be the final score and player stats (via a boxscore). These projections should be useful as a resource for fantasy and betting.
I also provide general notes on various items (such as betting market data, team trends, weather, travel, rest, injuries, #RevengeGames, etc.), highlight any potential best bets I have on the game, and note any players I like to outperform expectations.
Essentially, whatever catches my eye with this game—that's what I'm writing about.
Think of this collection of focused miscellany as just part of my “Freedman Files.”
READ THE REST OF FREEDMAN’S PACKERS-DOLPHINS GAME MODEL
Freedman’s Other Thanksgiving Day Game Breakdowns:
Lions vs. Bears: Can the Lions finally win on Thanksgiving under Dan Campbell?
Cowboys vs. Giants: Could two subpar defenses serve us an OVER?
Where Are The Sharps Leaning For TNF?
Source: Sharp Hunter
Happy Thanksgiving football fans! 🦃🏈🦃🏈🦃🏈
From all of us at Sharp Hunter—hope you get to enjoy some family time Thursday.
There’s plenty of football to follow as we get the traditional Thanksgiving Day NFL tripleheader.
Our sharps have action all day and it’s a great time to check out Sharp Hunter and see where all the sharp money is going on Turkey Day.
Let’s focus on the middle of the three games—Cowboys hosting the Giants. Dallas is a 3.5-point favorite with a consensus total of 37.
The favorites have been the right play on Thanksgiving—since 2004 they show an ATS record of 38-19.
Our sharps are playing the favored Cowboys here, and we’re posting a Two-Bag Sharp Score to back that up.
I will not argue with the sharps on Thanksgiving—Dallas is my play here.
As of Wednesday afternoon, all indications are Drew Lock will start this one for the Giants. He’s seen limited action this season with NY, but was sacked 6 times in just two starts for the Seahawks last season. Now there are multiple starters on the Giants’ O-line banged up and their LT won’t play. It’s likely the backup to the backup to the backup will be under pressure from the jump on Thursday.
It’s worth noting as a starter, Lock is just 4-11 SU on the road in his career. Seems to be some social media buzz he’s much better than Tommy Cutlets … he seems a marginal upgrade at best.
On the other side of the ball, Cooper Rush is no world-beater, but he has a much better matchup than Lock and the Giants: NY is 24th overall DVOA on defense. They’re also dead last DVOA vs. opposing No. 1 WRs. If CeeDee Lamb plays, he’s in a great spot to bust out on Thanksgiving.
And after a lifeless effort against Tampa just a few days ago, it’s at least in play that this Giants team has packed it in for their coach and for their season.
Betting on Rush is not fun, but he’s got the better team here. And it seems more fun than betting on Lock.
Not saying they're great—but the Cowboys are better than the Giants.
The sharps at Sharp Hunter are willing to lay the points and so am I.
Good luck with all your bets this Thanksgiving!
FANTASY LIFE EXPERTS’ NFL BEST BETS
