Miami QB Cameron Ward is back at the top of the Heisman odds — he is now the favorite at +185, with 29 touchdowns to six interceptions for the undefeated Miami Hurricanes.
The board currently looks like this, via the Fantasy Life odds tool:
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| C. Ward, Miami QB | +183 |
| T. Hunter, Colorado WR/DB | +215 |
| D. Gabriel, Oregon QB | +288 |
| A. Jeanty, Boise State RB | +500 |
| J. Dart, Ole Miss QB | +1800 |
| K. Rourke, Indiana QB | +2100 |
| S. Sanders, Colorado QB | +3875 |
| J. Milroe, Alabama QB | +5750 |
| C. Klubnik, Clemson QB | +5875 |
| G. Nussmeier, LSU QB | +6375 |
Let's start with this question: What to do if you didn't hop on Cam Ward weeks ago? Is there still value at these odds?
2024 Heisman Tropy odds & values
As long as Miami keeps winning, Cam Ward's odds are going to continue to go down, assuming he stays healthy. The system is what it is, and it allows him to put up these video-game numbers. Right now, he's No. 2 in the nation in passing yards, No. 1 in in touchdowns (29) and has only six interceptions. So he's going to keep putting up those stats.
There were many weeks where I was going against the market on this, based on a very simple principle: What we know of the voting block over the last 20 years, the winner is almost assuredly going to be a quarterback on one of the teams in the 12-team College Football Playoff — and the one that puts up the best stats.
So that's why we kept banging the drum for Cam Ward and Dillon Gabriel, especially when their odds got long. And now with Ward at +185 it's tough to advocate for a bet there, because things could go wrong. But he would clearly be my favorite.
Of course, those odds could start to go down. We have the four main contenders coming into focus, and then there's a huge gulf after that. Cam Ward is certainly at the front of that line right now.
Travis Hunter, Ashton Jeanty Heisman odds & bets
The way that I do future bets, it's sort of like the stock market: building a portfolio. Since I had tickets on Ward at the juiced odds when he was 6:1 or 8:1 in mid-September, you hold those tickets.
Now when the market moves this way, I don't want to bet those guys anymore because I have my tickets. I want to cover my you know what, and that's what I'm looking to do with with some of the other ones.
There was that one week where Travis Hunter had fallen to 6:1 or 7:1, and if you hadn't gotten something in the preseason, that was your buy point there. I don't think there's value on Travis Hunter at +220, although I will say Colorado in the projection system is starting to look a little bit frisky.
I've said this before, and I'll say it again: The way Travis Hunter wins is if Colorado makes the College Football Playoff. And he has to stay healthy — he can't miss any more time — but they have a shot to crash the Big 12 title game. And then you'd have a one off to potentially upset whoever you're playing.
But I think the odds of that are like a parlay of Colorado winning every game out — and you could get better odds just betting the Colorado money lines than betting Travis Hunter at +220, so again, not a buy.
Then with Dillon Gabriel at +280, we're not buying on him again because we already have the 16 to 18 to 1 tickets on him.
Colorado Buffaloes bets vs. Heisman odds
I don't see how the voting block, based on their history, justifies giving the Heisman to a non-quarterback on a non-playoff team. And nobody loves Travis Hunter more than me — this is just a projection of voters' behavior in the past.
I think where we get the critical mass flip is if Colorado wins the Big 12. So if you're sniffing around and you like that bet of Colorado to win the Big 12, I think you could do an accompanying bet with Travis Hunter. But I think that's the only shot he's got — for Colorado to to win the conference. And then, all of a sudden, your argument becomes a bit more clear against, say, Cam Ward and Dillon Gabriel.
